Basic Forecast Guidelines

Penn State Weather CampsSat I - Sat II - NWS - Radar - Radar

sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

-> IR emission PROP to ?

-> Temp and Height ?

Know what to expect! = Climo.JUNE 22

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Climatology Forecast = averages for today

Persistence Forecast = yesterday’s values

Modified Persistence -> Yesterday = First Guess -> Modify based on changes

Conceptual Models

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Modifying Persistence ◦What causes temperature to change?

Cloud cover:◦Day Vs. Night

Precipitation:◦When it rains T’s tend to be higher/lower? Why?

Wind and Fronts:◦Direction

N vs. S◦Speed

Day Vs. Night

Basic Forecast Guidelines

L

L

Basic Forecast Guidelines

11z TUES

-> 70,65,60Isodrosotherms-> Low, Cold &Warm Fronts

L

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

Basic Forecast Guidelines

What causes rain?◦Need clouds!

Will any ole cloud do?◦Moisture supply

Bodies of water – Moisture content of air◦Upward motion:

How does this affect clouds/precip.? Mechanisms for “lift”

◦Fronts – Topography – Low Pressure – Jet stream dist.

◦(In) stability: Warm down low … cold up high!