Post on 21-Mar-2020
transcript
Dale Emrich
May 2018
BASINS TO WATCHAAPG Annual Convention & Exhibition – Salt Lake City, Utah
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293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
DISCOVERY WELLS SINCE 2017
NLA
APAC
EMEA
Mexico
Brazil
Argentina
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▪ Began with Drillinginfo’s Discovery Wells (DW) database for the world excluding the Lower U.S. 48 and Canada.
• Countries and basins were ranked by Discovery Well Count (DWC) for time period from 1/1/2017 to 3/31/2018.
▪ 91 Basins were then ranked by Sum of Magnitude Rank (SMR) for all discoveries.• Magnitude Rank is a ranking from 1-7 and is based on resource estimates where 1 is the smallest and 7 is
the largest in terms of units for Bcf/Tcf of gas and MMb of oil (liquid).
METHODOLOGY
▪ Analyzed New Field Wildcats (NFW) and success rates (DW/NFW) as well as data from “Wells To Watch – Q2 2018” Report and the Planned Wells/Surveys databases to come up with a Future Potential Score (FPS).
▪ Interviewed and consulted with Drillinginfo’s team of regional experts for the Americas, EMEA, & APAC to adjust and validate overall methodology and approach.
▪ Did not heavily consider geopolitical factors. Didn’t consider worldwide or regional supply/demand figures or company/market situations in overall analysis.
▪ This was a purely “by-the-numbers” approach using Drillinginfo databases to determine which basins were important to watch for the remainder of 2018.
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LET’S GET STARTEDTOP COUNTRIES & BASINS
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293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
Algeria12%
Egypt 11%
Colombia10%
China 7%
Pakistan 8%
TOP 5 COUNTRIES
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293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
Algeria12%
ALGERIA
Basin Name DWC *
Ghadames (Berkine) 10Oued Mya – Moudir 10Hassi Messaoud Ridge 7
Timimoun-Ahnet 5Atchan Uplift 1Reggane 1Thiemboka Arch 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
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Egypt 11%
Basin Name DWC *
Red Sea 8Abu Gharadiq 6North Egypt 6
Alamein Sub (North Egypt) 4Marmarica 4Nile Delta 4Matruh 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
EGYPT
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Colombia10%
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
COLOMBIA
Basin Name DWC *
Llanos 20Lower Magdalena 4Caguan-Putumayo 3
Middle Magdalena 1Sinu Offshore 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
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Pakistan 8%
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
PAKISTAN
Basin Name DWC *
Lower Indus Platform 18Kohat-Potwar Foldbelt 3Central Indus Platform 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
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China 7%
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
CHINA
Basin Name DWC *
Bohai Gulf 10Pearl River Mouth 6Beibuwan 4
Song Hong 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
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OTHER AREAS TO WATCHWITHIN EMEA & APAC REGIONS
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Australia 5%
Indonesia MalaysiaVietnam
6%
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, VIETNAM, AUSTRALIA
33 Wells, 12 Basins
Basin Name DWC *
Eromanga 13Malay 5Greater Sarawak 4
Nam Con Son 3
Perth 1Kutei 1Lariang 1
North East Java 1North Sumatra 1South Sumatra 1Tarakan 1West Natuna 1
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
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Norway, UK, Netherlands7%
293 Discoveries Worldwide (Period from 1-Jan-2017 to 31-Mar-2018)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DISCOVERIES SINCE 2017
NORWAY, UNITED KINGDOM, NETHERLANDS, EUROPE
Area Name DWC *
North Sea 12Europe 11Norwegian / Barents Sea 8
Onshore Netherlands 2
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
Europe4%
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BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC3 IMPORTANT BLOCKS WITH 9 DISCOVERIES (GUYANA & SENEGAL)
4 PLANNED WELLS TO WATCH (SURINAME & GAMBIA)
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MSGBC Basin
BRIDGING THE ATLANTIC
GUYANA-SURINAME & MSGBC BASINS
Basin Name DWC *
Guyana-Suriname 5MSGBC 4
* DWC = Discovery Well Count
Guyana-Suriname Basin
9 Wells on 3 Blocks, 2 Basins
3 Important Upcoming Suriname Wells:Kosmos – Apetina 1, Aurora 1, Anapai 1 Spud Dates H2-2018 (planned)Blocks 42 & 45
1 Important Upcoming Gambia Well: SAMO 1 Far Gambia –
Block A2Planned Spud Q3-2018
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RESOURCE ESTIMATESADDING “SUM OF MAGNITUDE RANK” INTO THE MIX
TOP 25 BASINS BY COMBINED DWC/SMR SINCE 2017 *
Basin Name (Country)DWC SMR Score -Overall Ranking
Llanos (Colombia) 1
Ghadames (Algeria) 2
Oued Mya - Moudir (Algeria) 3
Eromanga (Australia) 4
Bohai Gulf (China) 5
Lower Indus (Pakistan) 6
Hassi Messaoud Ridge (Algeria) 7
Red Sea (Egypt) 8
Guyana-Suriname (Guyana/Suriname) 9
Louisiana Coastal (US) 10
Pearl River Mouth (China) 11
Salina del Istmo (Mexico) 12
Neuquen (Argentina) 13
Abu Gharadiq (Egypt) 14
Pannonian (Hungary) 15
Malay (Malaysia) 16
Nile Delta (Egypt) 17
North Egypt (Egypt) 18
MSGBC (Mauritania/Senegal/Guinea Bissau) 19
Timimoun - Ahnet (Algeria) 20
Barents Sea Platform (Norway) 21
Lower Magdalena (Colombia) 22
Southern North Sea - Anglo Dutch (Netherlands) 23
Viking Graben (Norway) 24
Alamein Sub Basin (Egypt) 25
Algeria #2,3,7,20,68,69,89
* 91 Basins Ranked Egypt #8,14,17,18,25,30,81
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FUTURE POTENTIAL SCOREWELLS TO WATCH, PLANNED WELLS & PLANNED SURVEYS
TOP 25 BASINS (SHOWING COUNTS FOR KEY WELLS TO WATCH, PLANNED WELLS & SURVEYS) *
* 91 Basins Ranked – Average Success Rate across Top 25 Basins is approximately 55%.
DETAILED ANALYSIS COMMENTS Basin Name (Country)
DWC SMR Score - Overall Ranking
Wells To Watch Count
Planned Well Programs
Planned Surveys
FUTURE POTENTIAL SCORE (FPS)
FPS RANK
Salina del Istmo (Mexico) 12 0 57 5 62 1
Llanos (Colombia) 1 0 44 6 50 2
Yes Deepw ater Frontier Nile Delta (Egypt) 17 0 43 4 47 3
Pannonian (Hungary) 15 0 27 16 43 4
Neuquen (Argentina) 13 0 31 5 36 5
Louisiana Coastal (US) 10 0 29 0 29 6
Guyana-Suriname (Guyana/Suriname) 9 3 20 4 27 7
Yes Possible Law Changes, SH 2030 Ghadames (Algeria) 2 0 5 14 19 8
Yes Frontier / Emerging Basin MSGBC (Mauritania/Senegal/Guinea Bissau) 19 1 9 8 18 9
Red Sea (Egypt) 8 0 11 5 16 10
Abu Gharadiq (Egypt) 14 0 9 4 13 11
Viking Graben (Norw ay) 24 0 11 1 12 12
Low er Magdalena (Colombia) 22 0 8 2 10 13
Barents Sea Platform (Norw ay) 21 1 7 0 8 14
Low er Indus (Pakistan) 6 0 6 0 6 15
North Egypt (Egypt) 18 0 3 3 6 16
Malay (Malaysia) 16 0 3 1 4 17
Timimoun - Ahnet (Algeria) 20 0 1 3 4 18
Southern North Sea - Anglo Dutch (Netherlands) 23 0 0 2 2 19
Alamein Sub Basin (Egypt) 25 0 2 0 2 20
Eromanga (Australia) 4 0 2 0 2 21
Oued Mya - Moudir (Algeria) 3 0 0 0 0 22
Pearl River Mouth (China) 11 0 0 0 0 23
Hassi Messaoud Ridge (Algeria) 7 0 0 0 0 24
Bohai Gulf (China) 5 0 0 0 0 25
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A CLOSER LOOK3 KEY BASINS TO WATCH – NILE DELTA, GHADAMES, MSGBC
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Nile Delta - Egypt
KEY BASIN TO WATCH
Regional Overview Map
DWC RANK = 15THSMR RANK = 14THNFW RANK = 26THSUCCESS RATE RANK = 12THFPS RANK = 3RD
FIRST WELL IN 1923WELL COUNT (TOTAL) = 738RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 42
RECENT RATIO = 5.69%WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 0ACTIVE WELLS = 4
PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS
COUNT = 43
BY THE NUMBERSZohr Discoveries
2015/2016
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Nile Delta - Egypt
KEY BASIN TO WATCH
Regional Overview Map
DWC RANKSMR RANKNFW RANKSUCCESS RATE RANKFPS RANK
FIRST WELLWELL COUNT (TOTAL)RECENT WELL COUNT (2017/Q1-18)RECENT RATIO
WELLS TO WATCH COUNTACTIVE WELLS
PLANNED WELLS COUNT
ASSET TRANSACTIONS COUNT
BY THE NUMBERSZohr
Block
Deepwater Frontier
EGAS International 2018 Bid Round –
Planned Open Date 1-June-2018
“Deepwater Frontier”
EGAS International 2019 Bid Round –
Planned Open Date 1-August-2019
“Deepwater Frontier”
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Nile Delta - EgyptKEY BASIN TO WATCH
TOTAL OPERATORS = 29
TOTAL BLOCKS = 104
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Ghadames (Berkine) - Algeria
KEY BASIN TO WATCH
Regional Overview MapDWC RANK = 4THSMR RANK = 2NDNFW RANK = 2ND SUCCESS RATE RANK = 20TH +FPS RANK = 8TH
FIRST WELL IN 1956WELL COUNT (TOTAL ALGERIA ONLY) = 930RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 52RECENT RATIO = 5.59%
WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 0ACTIVE WELLS = 20
PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS COUNT = 5
OVERVIEW
BY THE NUMBERS
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Ghadames (Berkine) - AlgeriaKEY BASIN TO WATCH
TOTAL BLOCKS = 165
SCOUTING POINTS
TOTAL OPERATORS = 11
SCOUTING POINTS
• 4-May-2018 Further details on Sonatrach’s new strategy and vision (SH 2030) emerge with recommendations for re-structuring the organization; CAPEX figure of $50 Billion (USD) over the next 5 years
• SH 2030 launched by new CEO Abdelmoum Ouid Kaddour in September 2017; Kaddour appointed in March 2017
• No licensing rounds since the 2014 offering in which only 4 out of 31 blocks were awarded; Since then, Sonatrach has favored one-on-one negotiations with companies; Kaddour has asserted that no fewer than 27 IOCs wish to enter Algeria
• First draft of 2005 Hydrocarbons Law amendments to be published by next July,
this is anticipated to improve the fiscal terms for companies wishing to work in Algeria
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MSGBC
KEY BASIN TO WATCH
Regional Overview MapDWC RANK = 21STSMR RANK = 11THNFW RANK = 28THSUCCESS RATE RANK = 16THFPS RANK = 9TH
FIRST WELL IN 1954WELL COUNT (TOTAL) = 267RECENT WELL COUNT (2017 TO 20-MAY-2018) = 10RECENT RATIO = 3.75%
WELLS TO WATCH COUNT = 1ACTIVE WELLS = 0
PLANNED WELL PROGRAMS COUNT = 9
OVERVIEW
BY THE NUMBERS
Atlantic Ocean
MSGBC
Guyana-
Suriname
SAMO 1 (WELLS TO WATCH) FAR GAMBIA – BLOCK A2
PLANNED SPUD Q3-2018
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MSGBCKEY BASIN TO WATCH
TOTAL BLOCKS = 118
SCOUTING POINTS
TOTAL OPERATORS = 26
• 26-April-2018 Samo 1 on Block A2 – Stena “DrillMAX” drillship contracted by FAR to be drilled in Q3-2018
• Samo Prospect is on trend with the Senegalese SNE field and has best estimate prospective resources of 825 Mmbo with a 55% chance of success
• 1st Licensing Round in Guinea – originally planned for October 2017, delayed while Total assesses existing data under a Technical Evaluation Agreement (TEA)
• TEA signed in early October 2017 for 22 of 30 demarcated offshore Guinea blocks
• Licensing Round could take place in October 2018 once Total’s TEA expires
Thank you
28
Come for more talks:Basins to Watch – Central & South America
Robyn Marchand – Technical Advisor
Monday 21st – 915am, 3pm & 430pmTuesday 22nd – 945am & 4pm
Wednesday 23rd – 1130am
Basins to Watch – EMEA & APAC
Dale Emrich – International Product ManagerMonday 21st – 945am, 230pm & 4pm
Tuesday 22nd – 11am & 230pmWednesday 23rd – 945am
Machine Learning in Structural & Stratigraphic Geological Interpretation: Automated Tops Picking & the Release of the APE
Patrick Rutty – Sr Product Manager, TransformTuesday 22nd – 915am, 1130am, 3pm & 430pm
Wednesday 23rd – 915am & 11am