Post on 22-Jan-2015
description
transcript
Energy Efficiency & the Energy Future in ASEAN
Amit Bando, Executive Director, IPEECBangkok, Thailand
5 June 2013
2
What is IPEEC?1.
33
IPEEC is a high level international forumProvides global leadership on energy efficiency by
identifying and facilitating government implementation of policies and programs that yield high energy-efficiency gains.
Aims to promote information exchange on best practices and facilitate initiatives to improve energy efficiency.
Formally established in 2009 at the G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy and resulting from the Heiligendamm Dialogue Process.
4
IPEEC is an Autonomous Entity
5
Established in 2009 at the G8 summit in Italy; Reports to G20, Clean Energy Ministerial & others
Facilitates Rapid Deployment of Clean Technologies WorldwideThe IPEEC Secretariat is located in Paris, France
Members account for over 80% of world GDP and energy use.
Italy
Russia
Japan
Republic of KoreaChina
India
Australia
GermanyUnited
KingdomFrance
Canada
USA
Mexico
Brazil
EU
South Africa
IPEEC - guiding principles Improving energy saving and energy efficiency is one of the
quickest, greenest, and most cost-effective ways to address energy security and climate change as well as to ensure sustainable economic growth
All countries, both developed and developing, share common interests in improving their energy efficiency performance
There is abundant potential for international cooperation among them
Will contribute to improvement of energy efficiency at the global level
Developed countries need to play an important role in cooperation with developing countries
Accelerating dissemination and transfer of best practices, efficient technologies and capacity building in developing countries
6
Basic research
Technologyjourney
Applied research Early demonstration Full demonstration Marketed product Warranted product
Proofof...Principle Concept Validity Viability Value Quality
Individual innovators
Companyjourney
Small group: start-up/unit in a company
Medium-size operation Large scale operation
Owncapital Venturecapital Revenues Prof it
s
Demonstration& sample distribution
Market journey
Early adopters & niches Rational economic purchase Technology& market evaluation
Awareness Positivepotential Marketpull Feedback
General regulation
Regulation journey
General regulation Specific regulation General regulation General regulation
Negativeoftenunintended Neutral Positive Positive Neutral orpositive
Transition Technologies, Productsand Services Follow Parallel Journeys
7
8
ASEAN’s Energy Challenges
2.
ContextA
9
UrbanizationBetween 2005-2010, urban
population overtook the rural population
rising from 49% to 51%
By 2030, a majority or 2.7 billion people will live in cities and towns
equivalent to adding a new town of 137,000 people every day for next 21 years!
In the last two decades the Asia-Pacific urban proportion has risen by 29%
more than any other region 10
Urban population, Asia-Pacific subregions, 1990 and 2010
Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, UNESCAP
Energy Intensity
Today, Asia covers the lion’s share of the world’s primary energy consumption
Between 2007 and 2030, the region is projected to account for 45-50% of the increase in world primary energy demand
Non-OECD Asian nations will lead industrial energy demand by an average of 2.3 to 2.6% per year
projected annual growth in OECD nations of 0.5% / year 11
Global Primary Energy Intensity (2009)
Energy Access Worldwide, 1.4 billion do not have access to electricity
Almost 800 million in Asia-Pacific By 2030, 1.2 billion people globally are expected to remain without
electricity most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia
Worldwide, 2.7 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass for cooking
Almost 2 billion in Asia-Pacific In Asia-Pacific, the number of people using biomass is likely to
decrease from the current 1.937 billion to 1.769 billion
Global energy needs are estimated to grow > 50% developing countries contributing to nearly ¾th of this increase
To meet the target of achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030, investments of US$ 756 billion (or US$ 36 billion per year) is needed (Source: Energy Plus Report, UN, 2012)
12
13
ASEAN Energy Production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Mto
e Other renewables
Hydro
Geothermal
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Oil
Oil & gas sources in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar; Thailand and Vietnam;
Coal in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Source: IEA, National University of Singapore
14
Energy Demand Exceeds Energy Production
ASEAN Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Source: ASEAN Center for Energy, 2011
Increasingly, ASEAN will have to rely on energy imports;
Coal’s importance in the ASEAN energy mix is growing.
15
Main Energy Challenges in the RegionEnergy Security:
Coal use will increase, Energy consumption in the transport sector is
expected to rise from 87 Mtoe in 2007 to 300 Mtoe in 2030.
Energy Poverty: Out of the 567 million people living in the
ASEAN region, 160.3 million do not have any access to electricity.
For example, only 10% of rural Myanmar has access to electricity.
Energy efficiency (EE): EE remains low in most sectors.
Source: National University of Singapore, 2012
Energy Efficiency Trends in the Asia Pacific Region
B
16
Energy Intensity Trends Global energy intensity has decreased by 1.4% p.a. since 1990
Largest reductions found in the regions with the highest energy intensities (China, CIS and India)
Industry and power generation accounted for almost ½ of that reduction (about 30% and 15%, respectively)
Per capita energy consumption to 2030 is likely to grow at about
the same rate as in 1970 - 90 (0.7% p.a.)
Energy per unit of GDP – continues to improve globally, and at an accelerating rate
This acceleration is important as restrains the overall growth of primary energy.
Ex: During the 11th Five Year Plan in China, through various EE initiatives, energy consumption grew at an annual average of 6.6% compared to average annual growth rate of 11.2% for the national economy
Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally
BUILDINGS A EU Directive on the energy
performance of buildings (2009) harmonised standards for new buildings, making mandatory buildings certificates for the sale or rent of dwellings
In most countries, standards exist for both dwellings and service sector buildings, except in Africa and in Asia where most often standards only apply to non-residential buildings
Regions with efficiency standards on new buildings
Source: WEC Survey, 2010
Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally - 2
LABELLING AND APPLIANCE STANDARDS
EU has mandatory labelling for several electrical appliances
In OECD Asia and America, about 70% of the countries have implemented labels for refrigerators
In Africa, the Middle East and non-OECD Asia, labels are not widespread: they exist for refrigerators in less than 20%
19
Source: WEC Survey, 2010
Energy Efficiency Market Penetration
Energy efficiency firms attracted nearly $1.1 billion in venture capital in 2010, almost double that of 2007.*
LIGHTING: LED is the fastest growing market at a CAGR of 14.9% from 2011 to 2016
Asia will witness the highest growth (CAGR of 16.6%)BUILDINGS: EE market $87.0bn in 2012GREEN IT: Cloud computing revenue to continue
worldwide growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.8%
Market increase: US$46 billion (2009) to US$210.3 billion (2015)
EE measures could drive total data center energy expenditures down from $23.3 billion in 2010 to $16.0 billion in 2020 (28% reduction in GHG emissions from 2010 levels)
20
Energy Efficiency Financing Trends
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy deal value rose 40% year on year in 2011
The rise was fuelled by a big increase in US$1bn plus deals - almost all from a wave of solar, EE and wind power deals
The total number of 2011 deals dipped 6% year on year but still high at 570 Rebounded in 2010 off the 2009 low of 319
Increased deal value is not just coming from the largest deals Median deal value rose 25% year on year, from US$28.1m to US$35.2m
Asia-Pacific targets accounted for US$4.6bn but Asia Pacific buyers completed US$9.4bn of transactions in 2011
Just under half of this bidder total was accounted for by the two big European purchases by Toshiba and China National Bluestar.
Energy Efficiency Financing Trends
Asia Pacific deals by sector
22
Source: Final Renewables Deals 2012 Outlook 2011 Review, PwC.
ESCOs
The ESCO industry in Asia Pacific is poised to grow From $3.0 billion in annual revenue in 2009 to
$18.5 billion by 2016 421% increase from 2010 levels
Example: Despite not even being operational until 1998, annual revenues for China’s ESCO industry to reach $17 billion by 2015, increasing its share of the APAC regional market to over 90% (Source: Pike Research).
24
Energy Efficiency: Opportunities & Challenges
3.
25
Energy Saving Potential in the Region
Based on a Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario & the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS)
Source: 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook, 2011
26
EE Targets in the ASEAN Region
For the region: 15% reduction in energy intensity (2005 – 2015)
Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore & Thailand: 20% energy intensity reduction (2005 to 2020–2030, depending on the country)
ASEAN Primary Energy Intensity 1990 - 2030
Source: ASEAN Center for Energy, 2013
27
Main Barriers to EE
Many regional organizations have overlapping mandates;
Target of decreasing energy intensity by 8% (by 2015) for the ASEAN region is not allocated by country or sector;
The vertical linkages in decision making need improvement: top level decision makers are hard to reach;
EE action plans are not thoroughly developed - hinders their timely implementation;
Overall lack of training, capacity & international expertise;
EE related data are lacking; regional information clearing house could be established;
Source: WEACT Workshop, 2011
Energy Efficiency Planning in Asia-Pacific
Strengths• Increases sustainability• Increases energy security• Creates of market leader• Increases energy access
Weaknesses• Cost of investments• Lack of skilled personnel • Lack of consumer
awareness on need for Energy Efficiency
• Weak in-country R & D
Opportunities• Increased value and
lifespan• Investment relief (tax)• Market for new
innovations• Socio-economic co-
benefits• Competitive advantage
Threats• Rebound effect (effort
does not reduce energy consumption as planned)
• Fall in energy prices leading to “expensive” conservation
29
Strategies to Promote EEStrategy Action
Develop EE Policies & Build Capacity
1. Develop clear policies and plans to promote EE.2. Set national targets & develop plans to monitor
the results.3. Strengthen human capacity and enhance
infrastructure.Raise awareness & disseminate information
1. Develop and run EE campaigns to raise awareness.
2. Disseminate information using all appropriate medias (including energy labels).
3. Demonstrate best energy practices and successful cases,
Promote best practices
1. Develop regulation &/or provide incentives to encourage best practices in facilities.
2. Build up capacity for all stakeholders.Facilitate EE Financing
1. Develop mechanisms to enhance financing for EE2. Increase the involvement of national &
international financial institutions.
Source: WEACT Workshop, 2011
30
Energy Efficiency: More Than Just Energy Savings
Government Action to Promote Energy Efficiency
Climate Change Mitigation:
Reduced GHG Emissions
Sustainable Development:
Enhanced Energy Access
Energy Security:Reducing
Energy Use
Low Carbon Economy• Improved air quality
• Jobs created• Lower energy cost
31
Next Steps? 5.
Moving Forward
Governments need to commit by:Providing an overarching policy framework combining
mandatory and voluntary policies and strengthening enforcement
Promoting greater awareness of EEPlaying an essential role as integrator of the value chain Establishing funding mechanisms to jump-start EE financing
Particularly in the short term Institutionalizing standard-selling & enhancing
professionalism within the industry by creating proper accreditation & certification standards
Publicizing accurate information about EE product suppliers and ESCOs
Removing/rationalizing other barriers that distort markets Such as energy subsidies
32
Moving Forward - 2
And Businesses need to Move towards an integrated value chain approach where
suppliers extend their service portfolio to offer complete solutions (auditing, installation, maintenance and financing solutions)
Develop innovative financing vehicles for EE projects by collaborating with financial institutions & develop expertise in EE project financing
Increase awareness of EE and enhance industry professionalism
Adopt a more active role in promoting EE and in professionalizing the industry from within by setting standards and benchmarks – energy suppliers and ESCOs can lead effort
Bring in the best practices from experiences in other countries – multinationals can act as catalysts
33
34
Areas where International Expertise can Help
Financial mechanisms to promote EE;
Enhanced EE in industry and buildings;
Improved energy management;
Data collection and indicators;
Development of policies and action plans; and
Enhanced coordination of regional actions.
35
Thank you for your attention!
Any questions? Please contact: contact@ipeec.org
9 rue de la Fédération75739 Paris
France