Post on 19-Oct-2020
transcript
IT September 7, 2011
TCS
Bloomberg: TCS IN BUY
Reuters: TCS.BO
Analyst Contact
Naushil Shah
+91‐22‐22895034
naushil.shah@karvy.com
Recommendation
CMP: Rs 1,031
Target Price: Rs 1,175
Upside : 14%
Stock Information
Market Cap. (Rsbn/US$mn) 2,018/43,874
52‐week High/Low (Rs) 1,247/830
Shares Outstanding (mn) 1,957
3m ADV Rs2,131mn /US$46.3mn
Beta 0.97
Sensex 16,863
Nifty 5,064
Stock Performance (%)
1M 3M 12M YTD
Absolute (2.5) (12.6) 18.3 (11.6)
Rel. to Sensex (1.2) (4.8) 26.8 5.2
Performance
Source: Capitaline, Karvy Institutional Research
8309301030113012301330
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
Aug‐10
Oct‐10
Dec‐10
Feb‐11
Apr‐11
Jun‐11
Sensex (LHS) TCS (RHS)
Factors in sluggishness, risk‐reward favorable Rising concern about IT demand. The US credit downgrade and weakness in
European markets have increased concerns about IT demand going forward.
IT stocks might remain under pressure in the near term. However, CNX IT is
down 28.4% (YTD in CY11), we believe, this safely factors in expected
pressure on earnings. However, Large Indian IT companies are continuously
increasing their wallet share among clients.
TCS, our top pick in the large Caps. TCS is the only large cap IT company
which has managed better‐than‐expected revenue growth and margin
increases, and we believe it would continue to do so. TCS remains positive
regarding pricing and management suggested pricing increase is likely to
take place in FY12, though in the near term we expect the pricing to remain
stable. We like TCS amongst the IT large‐caps, and in our view, offers a
favourable risk‐reward for long term investors and weakness should be seen
as an opportunity to accumulate.
BFSI spending drivers still intact. For global banks (TCS has ~44% of its
TTM revenues from BFSI), the pursuit of growth, cost pressures, migration
from legacy, standardization of platforms and regulatory requirements will
remain the drivers of IT spending. TCS is also gaining on account of vendor
consolidation.
Margin levers. (1) Broadening employee pyramid ‐ 37k campus offers made;
(2) nonlinearity‐ related initiatives – would provide margin cushion; (3)
improvement in initiatives like Diligenta; and (4) SG&A also has some limited
scope for improvement. For the first time, TCS EBIT margins surpassed that
of Infosys.
Valuation. TCS trades at valuations of 19.7x and 17.6x FY12e & FY13e EPS. EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 18.3% and 14.7% is expected over FY11‐13e. Our
TP of Rs1,175 is based on 20xFY13e earnings on account of robust return
ratios. While valuation is high, EBITDA growth should drive stock return, in
our view. Risk factors. Greater than expected slowdown in demand, pricing
pressures.
Key Financials
(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Net Sales 278,129 300,289 373,245 458,503 541,931
EBITDA 71,781 86,799 111,987 133,889 156,688
Net profit 51,721 68,725 87,167 102,455 114,622
EPS (Rs) 26.4 35.1 44.5 52.3 58.6
EPS Growth (%) 3.0 32.9 26.8 17.5 11.9
EBITDA margins (%) 25.8 28.9 30.0 29.2 28.9
PE (x) 39.1 29.4 23.2 19.7 17.6
EV/EBIDTA (x) 28.1 23.3 18.0 15.1 12.8
P/S (x) 7.3 6.7 5.4 4.4 3.7
RoCE (%) 41.4 42.4 45.0 44.8 42.7
RoE (%) 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6 34.6
Source: Company & Karvy Institutional Research
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES
INDIA RESEARCH
Update
Institutional Equities Team Rangachari Murlikrishnan Head – Institutional Equities (022) 22895007 muralikrishnan@karvy.com
Shridhar Iyer Head ‐ Institutional Sales (022) 22895160 shridhar.iyer@karvy.com
K. Anant Rao
Head ‐ Sales‐Trading &
Derivatives (022) 22895196 k.anantrao@karvy.com
Uday Raval Karvy Inc. USA (212) 2674334 udayr@karvy.com
INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH
Analysts Industry / Sector Desk Phone Email ID
Amit K. Ahire Telecom & Media 022‐22895150 amit.ahire@karvy.com
Bhuvan Yadav MidCap 040‐23312454 bhuvan.yadav@karvy.com
Divyah Ahooja Auto & Auto Ancillaries 022‐22895143 divyah.ahooja@karvy.com
Jagadishwar Pasunoori MidCap 040‐44857912 jagadishwar.p@karvy.com
Madhavi Arora Economy 022‐22895145 madhavi.arora@karvy.com
Manoj Kumar Manish Derivatives Research 022‐22895078 manojkumar.m@karvy.com
Naushil Shah Technology 022‐22895034 naushil.shah@karvy.com
Nishith Sanghvi Pharmaceuticals 022‐22895026 nishith.s@karvy.com
Paresh Jain BFSI 022‐22895025 paresh.jain@karvy.com
Parikshit Kandpal Infra / Real Estate 022‐22895018 parikshit.kandpal@karvy.com
Prasun Kumar Cement & Logistics 022‐22895028 prasun.kumar@karvy.com
Raghuram Kuchi MidCap 040‐23312454 raghuram.kuchi@karvy.com
Rahul Sharma Pharmaceuticals 022‐22895021 rahul.sharma@karvy.com
Rahul Singh MidCap 040‐23312454 rahulsingh@karvy.com
Rajesh Kumar Ravi Cement & Logistics 022‐22895030 rajesh.ravi@karvy.com
Rupesh Sankhe Power 022‐22895022 rupesh.sankhe@karvy.com
Sameer Pardikar Telecom, Media and Oil & GAS 022‐22895024 sameer.pardikar@karvy.com
Vinay Nair Oil & Gas 022‐22895029 vinaynair@karvy.com
Yogesh Nagaonkar Auto & Auto Ancillaries 022‐22895020 yogesh.nagaonkar@karvy.com
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Dinesh Bajaj Sales 022‐22895012 dinesh.bajaj@karvy.com
Dipesh Jain Sales 022‐22895015 dipesh.jain@karvy.com
Jigna Haria Sales 022‐22895014 jigna.haria@karvy.com
Priyanka Ahuja Sales 022‐22895016 priyanka.ahuja@karvy.com
R. Sriram Sales 022‐22895013 sriram.rangarajan@karvy.com
Shabbir Dahodwala Sales (USA) 212‐2674334 shabbir@karvy.com
INSTITUTIONAL SALES DEALING
Dipesh Upadhyay Sales Trader 022‐22895060 dipesh.upadhyay@karvy.com
Parag Shah Sales Trader 022‐22895066 parag.shah@karvy.com
Sriram Jagdish Sales Trader 022‐22895068 sriram.jagdish@karvy.com
PRODUCTION
Asim Kumar Mohapatra Editor 022‐22895019 asim.mohapatra@karvy.com
Vishal Randive Database 022‐22895017 vishal.randive@karvy.com
Vijayalaxmi Moolya Production 022‐22895027 vijayalaxmi.m@karvy.com
For further enquiries please contact:
research@karvy.com
Tel: +91‐22‐22895000
Disclosures Appendix
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately
reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein
is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments
discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary.
While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor Karvy
Stock Broking nor any person connected with any associate companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this
information and views mentioned in this document.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above mentioned
companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associate companies are required to disclose their individual stock
holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations
are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has
been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. This
report is intended for a restricted audience and we are not soliciting any action based on it. Neither the information nor any opinion
expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options, futures nor other
derivatives related to such securities.
Karvy Stock Broking Limited Institutional Equities
2nd Floor, Regent Chambers, Nariman Point ‐ Mumbai 400 021. Regd Off : 46, Road No 4, Street No 1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad – 500 034.
Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on: Bloomberg ‐ KRVY <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters.
Stock Rating Absolute Returns
BUY : >15% HOLD : 5‐15% SELL : <5%