Post on 14-Dec-2015
transcript
BUILDING STRONG®1
Purpose:Develop tools for 3-7 day forecast of social and hydrological
conditions for small-unit early entry and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) operations.
Products:• Framework for assessing hydrological impacts on social
vulnerability and resilience• Maps showing social vulnerability coupled with water
depth and inundation duration• Data requirements to drive OCONUS application of
vulnerability analyses• Algorithms for remotely sensed data that enable or
improve inference and derivation of necessary hydrological data
Payoff:• Improved soldier preparedness on early entry, both for
force projection and for disaster relief• Deliver capabilities usable by Defense Intelligence
Enterprise (DIE), COCOM analysts and planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency.
Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR
Schedule & Cost
MILESTONES FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Sociocultural vulnerability/resilience analysis & tools
Techniques for OCONUS Sociocultural and Hydro data aquisition
Integrated modeling capability
AT40 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6
3 5
3 5
Status: New
3 5
Total:$2.3M
Sociocultural Frameworks
Remote & Historic Data
Localized Sociocultural
Models
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Issyk Kul
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Delhi
Karachi
Kabul
Bhopal
Jaipur
Lahore
Mashhad
Tashkent
Ahmadabad
Faisalabad
Peshawar
Dushanbe
Srinagar
Amritsar
Hyderabad
Rawalpindi
Quetta
Zahedan
AndizhanNamangan
Shymkent
Ashgabat
New Delhi
Samarkand
Chandigarh
Osh
Kashi
Herat
Navoi
Nukus
Karshi
FerganaDzhizak
Bukhara
Urgench
Kandahar
Islamabad
Chardzhev
Dashkhovuz
Gandhinagar
Mazar-E Sharif
Mary
Kulob
Simla
Konduz
Termez
Jalabad
Gulistan
Qurghonteppa
Naryn
Talas
Aybak
QalatFarah
Bamian
Ghazni Gardez
Zaranj
Muscat
Karakol
Taloqan
Baghlan
AsadabadCharikar
Feyzabad
Meymaneh
Leninobod
Qal eh-ye
Mehtar Lam
Tarin Kowt
Sheberghan
Mayda Shahr
Lashkar Gah
Chaghcharan
Baraki Barak
Zareh Sharan
Wah
Sibi
Dadu
Bagh
Dina
Daska
Gojra KasurOkara
Multan
Ormara
Attock
Chaman
Vihari
Sukkur
Gujrat
Gilgit
Haripur
Bhakkar
Kamalia
Khanpur
Khuzdar
Khushab
Larkana
Harappa
Lodhran
Chakwal
GawadarKarachi
Peshawar
Kot Addu
Jamshoro
Kandhkot
Sargodha
Nowshera
Khairpur
Chishtian
Pakpattan
JacobabadShikarpur Sadiqabad
Nawabshah
Hyderabad
Tando Adam
Bahawalpur
Gujranwala
Jhang Sadar
Muzaffargarh
Muzaffarabad
Sehwan Sharif
Rahimyar Khan
Ahmadpur East
Mandi Bahauddin
Localized Indices & Decision Support
Localized Hydrological
Models
Governance
EconomicDevelopment
Influence ofAl Shebab
MuslimExtremists
FoodAvailability
Sanitation
PotableWater
Irrigation
InfantMortality
Rates
MortalityRate
Security
Diseases
RapidPopulation
GrowthIrrigation
materials andresources
NGOInvolvement
UnmanagedGrowth
Rainfall
Food Crises
FoodDistribution
Infrastructure
GovernmentalAgricultural
Policies
DesertEncroachment
ErosionDust
Storms
Flooding
Flooding
Minerals
Agricultural
Other
HistoricalEnemies
ReligousDifferences
AgriculturalOutput
TerroristsActivities
WaterResources
Health
Water RelatedDisasters
EnvironmentalEvents
LegitimateEconomic
Activity
Tribal/SecularIssues
Affects
Influences
Affects
Decrease
Affects
Increases
Increases
Affects
Decreases
Decreases
Causes
Affects
Causes Supports
Affects
Contributesto
NegativelyAffects
Needed toSustain
Enhances
ContributesTo
Disrupts
Mitigate
ContributesTo
Affects
Affects
Affects
Controls
Governs
Legend
Does this need to start w/ FY13?
BUILDING STRONG®
6. Transition Milestones: Sociocultural model for OCONUS flood vulnerability and
resilience (FY13) UROC deployment of social vulnerability mapping (FY 14)Coarse-to fine scale predictions for data-sparse sites
(FY14&15)
7. Endorsements: seeking endorsements from Jim Hill, MCIA, Lt Gen. Bash, CENTCOM J-4
8. Other Work Package Attributes:
1. What is the problem?• Small units entering a theater cannot anticipate the hydrological
conditions they will face and how those conditions will translate into social and cultural challenges.
2. What are the barriers to solving this problem?• Cannot yet (deleted:predict) forecast the impact of flood events on
local OCONUS populations (deleted: and their response because sociocultural analysis don’t include hydrological drivers)
• Limited (delete:access) identification of appropriate and available hydrological and sociocultural data (deleted: needed) for integrated early entry & HA/DR analysis
• Methods for inferring and deriving hydrological and sociocultural parameters from remote sources are inadequate. The time to solution and obtaining fine (small-unit) scale (delete:predictions) representations are particular limitations.
3. How will you overcome those barriers?• Develop an analytical framework for (deleted: coupling) integrating
short-term weather forecasts, hydrological modeling, and localized analysis of social vulnerability/resilience
• Pre-build integrated hydrological and sociocultural models for (delete:regions) areas of interest (delete:to include potential incursions and areas) commonly in need of disaster relief
• Develop novel approaches that enable or improve inference and derivation of necessary sociocultural and hydrological data in data-sparse environments
4. What is the capability you are developing?
Software tool to allow analysts to combine pre-built sociocultural models with short-term weather forecasts. The result is a quick turn planning tool that can be prepared in 1 wk/1 mo describing impacts of hydrologic events upon sociocultural factors using integrated information analysis, thus giving soldiers a better understanding of
• The conditions they will face• The needs of the local population• An ability to prioritize needs and better allocate resources
5. Quantitative Metrics:
Measure Current Prog. Obj. Army Obj. TRL
OCONUS sociocultural modeling with hydrological stimuli
Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrological forcing
Include hydrologic and local-cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest
Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM
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(delete:Coupling) Integration of hydrological and sociocultural models
Not (delete:coupled) integrated at all. Any assessments done separately.
(delete:Couple) Integrate the two capabilities so that (delete: either one could be used to drive the other) seamless, interactive analysis can occur.
Information synthesis; transform data rapidly into usable knowledge for logistics to culture and economics
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UROC response time for weather/hydrology in data-sparse regions; social vulnerability model development time
6 months to develop a large scale model, poor data quality; 1 year for case-specific model
2 weeks to develop a large scale model; generalizable model that can be tailored for specific situations in 3 months
Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling
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Status: New Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR