BUILDING STRONG®1

Purpose:Develop tools for 3-7 day forecast of social and hydrological

conditions for small-unit early entry and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) operations.

Products:• Framework for assessing hydrological impacts on social

vulnerability and resilience• Maps showing social vulnerability coupled with water

depth and inundation duration• Data requirements to drive OCONUS application of

vulnerability analyses• Algorithms for remotely sensed data that enable or

improve inference and derivation of necessary hydrological data

Payoff:• Improved soldier preparedness on early entry, both for

force projection and for disaster relief• Deliver capabilities usable by Defense Intelligence

Enterprise (DIE), COCOM analysts and planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency.

Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR

Schedule & Cost

MILESTONES FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Sociocultural vulnerability/resilience analysis & tools

Techniques for OCONUS Sociocultural and Hydro data aquisition

Integrated modeling capability

AT40 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6

3 5

3 5

Status: New

3 5

Total:$2.3M

Sociocultural Frameworks

Remote & Historic Data

Localized Sociocultural

Models

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Kabul

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Srinagar

Amritsar

Hyderabad

Rawalpindi

Quetta

Zahedan

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Shymkent

Ashgabat

New Delhi

Samarkand

Chandigarh

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Gandhinagar

Mazar-E Sharif

Mary

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Simla

Konduz

Termez

Jalabad

Gulistan

Qurghonteppa

Naryn

Talas

Aybak

QalatFarah

Bamian

Ghazni Gardez

Zaranj

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Karakol

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Baghlan

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Feyzabad

Meymaneh

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Tarin Kowt

Sheberghan

Mayda Shahr

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Chaghcharan

Baraki Barak

Zareh Sharan

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Bagh

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Daska

Gojra KasurOkara

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Chaman

Vihari

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Gujrat

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Khanpur

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Bahawalpur

Gujranwala

Jhang Sadar

Muzaffargarh

Muzaffarabad

Sehwan Sharif

Rahimyar Khan

Ahmadpur East

Mandi Bahauddin

Localized Indices & Decision Support

Localized Hydrological

Models

Governance

EconomicDevelopment

Influence ofAl Shebab

MuslimExtremists

FoodAvailability

Sanitation

PotableWater

Irrigation

InfantMortality

Rates

MortalityRate

Security

Diseases

RapidPopulation

GrowthIrrigation

materials andresources

NGOInvolvement

UnmanagedGrowth

Rainfall

Food Crises

FoodDistribution

Infrastructure

GovernmentalAgricultural

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ErosionDust

Storms

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Minerals

Agricultural

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ReligousDifferences

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TerroristsActivities

WaterResources

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Does this need to start w/ FY13?

BUILDING STRONG®

6. Transition Milestones: Sociocultural model for OCONUS flood vulnerability and

resilience (FY13) UROC deployment of social vulnerability mapping (FY 14)Coarse-to fine scale predictions for data-sparse sites

(FY14&15)

7. Endorsements: seeking endorsements from Jim Hill, MCIA, Lt Gen. Bash, CENTCOM J-4

8. Other Work Package Attributes:

1. What is the problem?• Small units entering a theater cannot anticipate the hydrological

conditions they will face and how those conditions will translate into social and cultural challenges.

2. What are the barriers to solving this problem?• Cannot yet (deleted:predict) forecast the impact of flood events on

local OCONUS populations (deleted: and their response because sociocultural analysis don’t include hydrological drivers)

• Limited (delete:access) identification of appropriate and available hydrological and sociocultural data (deleted: needed) for integrated early entry & HA/DR analysis

• Methods for inferring and deriving hydrological and sociocultural parameters from remote sources are inadequate. The time to solution and obtaining fine (small-unit) scale (delete:predictions) representations are particular limitations.

3. How will you overcome those barriers?• Develop an analytical framework for (deleted: coupling) integrating

short-term weather forecasts, hydrological modeling, and localized analysis of social vulnerability/resilience

• Pre-build integrated hydrological and sociocultural models for (delete:regions) areas of interest (delete:to include potential incursions and areas) commonly in need of disaster relief

• Develop novel approaches that enable or improve inference and derivation of necessary sociocultural and hydrological data in data-sparse environments

4. What is the capability you are developing?

Software tool to allow analysts to combine pre-built sociocultural models with short-term weather forecasts. The result is a quick turn planning tool that can be prepared in 1 wk/1 mo describing impacts of hydrologic events upon sociocultural factors using integrated information analysis, thus giving soldiers a better understanding of

• The conditions they will face• The needs of the local population• An ability to prioritize needs and better allocate resources

5. Quantitative Metrics:

Measure Current Prog. Obj. Army Obj. TRL

OCONUS sociocultural modeling with hydrological stimuli

Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrological forcing

Include hydrologic and local-cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest

Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM

5

(delete:Coupling) Integration of hydrological and sociocultural models

Not (delete:coupled) integrated at all. Any assessments done separately.

(delete:Couple) Integrate the two capabilities so that (delete: either one could be used to drive the other) seamless, interactive analysis can occur.

Information synthesis; transform data rapidly into usable knowledge for logistics to culture and economics

5

UROC response time for weather/hydrology in data-sparse regions; social vulnerability model development time

6 months to develop a large scale model, poor data quality; 1 year for case-specific model

2 weeks to develop a large scale model; generalizable model that can be tailored for specific situations in 3 months

Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling

5

Status: New Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR