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Insights from “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future” (CEC EPIC-14-069) and other recent E3 analysis CARB Public Workshop on Carbon Neutrality: Scenarios for Deep Decarbonization
August 15, 2019
California Scenarios to 80% Reductions in GHGs by 2050
Amber Mahone
Energy+Environmental Economics
2
2018 CEC study evaluated 10 scenarios to 80% GHG reductions by 2050 (“80x50”)
By 2020: return GHGs to 1990 levels (AB 32, 2006)
By 2030: 40% below 1990 levels (SB 32, 2015)
By 2050: 80% below 1990 levels (EO B-30-15 and EO S-3-05)
By 2045: Carbon neutrality (EO B-55-18) not evaluated in CEC analysis
Reference
Mitigation Scenarios
SB 350 Scenario
2030 goal: 40% below 1990
2050 goal: 80% below 1990
California Historical GHG Emissions and GHG Scenarios
Source: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
600
-G.I 500 N 0 ~ 400 ~ ~ 300 -u, C 0 ·v; u, ·-E
LI.I
200
100
0
1990
Energy+Environmental Economics
----·
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Four “Pillars” to an 80% GHG reduction (Add negative emission technologies to hit carbon neutrality)
* Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage, CO2 removal technologies, and emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULCF) and black carbon are not included in analysis.
Sequester carbon & reduce non-
combustion GHGs
Energy efficiency & conservation
Electrification Low-Carbon Fuels
Vehicle and freight
electrification
Industrial efficiency
Vehicle efficiency &
smart growth
Industrial electrification
Building electrification
Building efficiency & conservation
Nuclear, Carbon Capture & Storage*
Biofuels
Renewables and
hydroelectric
Soil & forest carbon, CO2 removal, black
carbon*
F-gases, N2O, CO2from cement
Methane (manure, dairy, gas leaks, etc.)
Energy+Environmental Economics
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Ten Mitigation Scenarios Test Different GHG Reduction Strategies & Risks
Mitigation Scenarios Scenario description
High Electrification Electrification of buildings and transportation, high energy efficiency, renewables, limited biomethane
No Hydrogen No fuel cell vehicles or hydrogen fuel, includes industrial electrification
Reference Smart Growth Less reductions in vehicle miles traveled, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
Reduced Methane Mitigation Higher fugitive methane leakage, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
Reference Industry EE Less industrial efficiency, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
In-State Biomass Less biofuels with no out-of-state biomass used, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
Reference Building EE Less building efficiency, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
No Building Electrification with Power-to-Gas
No heat pumps or building electrification, additional GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
High Biofuels Higher biofuels, including purpose grown crops, fewer GHG mitigation measures in other sectors
High Hydrogen More fuel cell trucks, fewer all-electric vehicles
The High Electrification Scenario is among the lower cost, lower-risk scenarios evaluated
Energy+Environmental Economics
5
Example timeline of GHG reduction measures in High Electrification Scenario
100% new car sales = ZEVs
96% zero-carbon electricity
33% renewable generation
building & industrial EE retrofits Begin installing electric heat pumps
74% zero-carbon generation 6 million ZEVs on the road50% heat pumps sales
100% heat pump sales12% reduction in per capita VMT relative to 2015
10% of remaining fossil fuels = advanced biofuels40% reduction in methane and F-gases
Nearly half of remaining fossil fuels = advanced biofuels
100% of truck sales are ZEVs, hybrid or CNG
30% of new car sales are ZEVsSignificant drop in per capita VMT
California Historical GHG Emissions and GHG Reduction Strategies in the High Electrification Scenario
Source: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
600
500
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8 400 u t-2 2 300 -V)
C: 0 -~ v, 200 E w
100
0
1990 2000
Energy+Environmental Economics
HI
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Buildings and vehicle sales shift to low emissions alternatives
Light Duty Vehicles% of new sales in High Electrification Scenario
BEV
Diesel
Hybrid Diesel
Hydrogen
CNG
Heavy Duty Vehicles% of new sales in High Electrification Scenario
Hybrid Diesel
Hydrogen
CNG
Gasoline
BEV
Medium Duty Vehicles% of new sales in High Electrification Scenario
Diesel
GasolinePHEV
BEV
Hydrogen
Natural gas High Efficiency Heat Pump
Space Heating (Residential, similar for Commercial)% of new sales in High Electrification Scenario
Water Heating (Residential, similar for Commercial)% of new sales in High Electrification Scenario
Natural gas High Efficiency Heat Pump
Electric resistance LPGReference electric heat pump Electric resistanceLPG
Source: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
100%
90%
80%
70%
] 60%
"' ~ 50%
'if/. 40%
2020
30%
20%
10%
0%
2015
202S
2020 2025 2030
2030 2035 2040 204S
Energy+Environmental Economics
20S0
2035
100%
90%
30%
20%
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0%
201S
2040 2045 2050
2020 202S 2030
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0% 2015
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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Maintaining electric reliability
…in a high renewables, low-carbon future will require some form of very long-duration storage or firm dispatchable capacity (e.g. gas generation running on biomethane)
Electric Resource Supply and Loads During a Multi-Day Low Renewable Generation Event with Zero Dispatchable Gas Capacity (2050)
Source: E3, “Long-Run Resource Adequacy under Deep Decarbonization Pathways for California,” June 2019
250
200
S ppl
lSO
so
Energy+Environmental Economics
Multi-day low renewable generation event
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Achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 will likely require going beyond “80x50”
Significant progress is needed across all four pillars, with fastest ramp -up between today and 2030
Reference
Bookend Ranges of Mitigation Cases
Reduce non-combustion emissions
Energy efficiency & conservation Electrification Low-Carbon Fuels
100% zero-carbon energy by 2045?
100% reduction in non-energy GHGs by 2045?
Source: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
Faster and broader electrification?
Faster and broader energy efficiency?
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Primary Energy Efficiency (MMBtu/person-yr)
+
70%
60%
50%
4()%
30%
20%
10%
°"
Energy+Environmental Economics
Share of Electricity and Hydrogen (% of Total Energy)
.,, s N
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Non-Combustion Emissions Relative to 1990 (%)
9
Remaining GHGs in 2050 point to mitigation needed for carbon neutrality
California 2050 GHGs High Electrification Scenario (86 MMT)
= 2015 emissions
Remaining 2050 emissions are mostly from industry, trucking, aviation, cement, and waste, dairy & agricultural methane
Source: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
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Energy+Environmental Economics
10
High priority GHG mitigation strategies & key challenges to achieve ‘80x50’
Scale Up & Deploy Key Challenges
Energy efficiency in buildings & industry Consumer decisions and market failures
Renewable electricity Implementation of integration solutions
Smart growth Consumer decisions and legacy development
Market Transformation Key Challenges
Zero-emission light-duty vehicles Consumer decisions and cost
Advanced efficiency/ building electrification
Consumer decisions, equity of cost impacts, cost and retrofits of existing buildings
F-gas replacement Standards needed to require alternatives
Methane capture Small and diffuse point sources
Reach technologies Key Challenges
Advanced sustainable biofuels Cost and sustainability challenges
Zero-emissions heavy-duty trucks Cost
Industrial electrification Cost & technical implementation challenges
Electrolysis hydrogen production CostSource: Mahone et al, (2018) “Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future”, California Energy Commission CEC-500-2018-012
Energy+Environmental Economics
11
Key Conclusions
Consumer decisions are the lynchpin to meeting 2030 GHG target • Investing in energy efficiency improvements in existing buildings• Purchasing and driving zero-emission vehicles• Installing electric heat pumps for HVAC and water heating• Carbon pricing, incentives, and business and policy innovations could all
drive the needed market transformation to reduce costs, improve performance and increase choices for these key consumer-facing strategies
85% - 95% zero-carbon electricity is needed by 2050• Renewable diversity and integration solutions are needed to reduce costs
At least one “reach technology” that has not been commercially proven is needed to help meet the longer-term 2050 GHG goal, and to mitigate risk of other solutions falling short• A “reach technology” should address difficult to electrify end-uses
(e.g. heavy-duty trucking, industry)
Energy+Environmental Economics