SPANISH GENERAL ELECTIONS #20NGeorge Washington University

@rafarubio@dogcomunicacion

THE “GROUND RULES”

Spanish electoral system

o Parliamentary System:- Head of State / Head of Government- Bicameral Congress- Indirect democratic system- Non-proportional system: Law D'Hont

o Provincial constituencies (50)

Non-governmental powers

Church Unions

Social movements

(15M)Media

Major elected offices EuropeanNationalRegionalLocal

Reelection Allowed, undefined.

Percentage limite on presidential elections NO

Importance of Poitical Parties High

How do parties select their candidates? ¿? Internal elections without oposition

Voting Non mandatory

Election for: CongressSenate

Parties funding Mainly from the government and affiliates

Campaigns limits (time, money) 15 days. Depending to the number of votes

POLITICAL CLIMATE

Municipal results

2011

2007

Regional results

2011

2007

Congress participation 1977-2008

Regional vote evolution

Political context

o International crisis (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy)– Unemployed (20%- 5.000.000)– Increasing risk rate.– Abstainers– Desilusión

Unemployment 2008-2012

Unemployment

Hiding information

Elections date moved to 11/20 (anounced 29/07)

Nothing matters. Neither the country,nor the institutions, the people, nothing…The important things are the personal rates,‘the box’ (banks)….

And not this one precisely.

The elections were advanced 4 months, theInstitutionallity sets back 200 years.

CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES AND TACTICS

Mariano Rajoy Brey

o Politically experienced.o 8 years in opposition.o Party calm after major

crises.o Favorable surveys but

assessment below 5.

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba

o Clever and Machiavellian fame.

o Zapatero’s Vice President and Minister of Interior.

o Felipe Gonzalez’s Minister and spokesman.

Voting Intention

Voting Intention evolution 2004-2012. (Source: CIS)

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

Apr-05

Jul-05

Oct-05

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

PP PSOE

o The traditional campaign, avoiding the verdict.o The change (poster and slogan) despite being often

repeated.o No big promises.o No appearances in the media.

(Join the change)

o No strategy.o Agresive campaigno Alfredo or Mr. Rubalcaba.o With Rubalcaba.o The final sprint: micro-acts.

(Fight for what you want)

The Debate

The DebateWho won?

Online strategy

o General strategyo 6 pilars:– Coordinated campaign:

– Campaign customization– Vote to the president

– Strategy development:– We did not work by ourselves.– Integrated in the campaign team.

– Integral presence:– Channels

Online Campaign ResultsDaily mentions to each Party on Social Media

(showing voting intention)

Twitter

@marianorajoy @conRubalcaba

Followers 125790 80936

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

15-Sep

19-Sep

23-Sep

27-Sep

1-Oct

5-Oct

9-Oct

13-Oct

17-Oct

21-Oct

25-Oct

29-Oct

2-Nov

6-Nov

10-Nov

14-Nov

18-Nov

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

RajoyRubalcaba

Most frequent wordsRAJOY

Thanks: (540)Program/Program PP (262/179)Sumatealcambio (160)Employment (134)Government (84)Measures (81)

PP (173)

PSOE (10)

RUBALCABARajoy (209)PSOE (145)PP (104)Program (93)Debate (90)ireply(73)

RajoydoesntanswerAlfredodoesnthide (70)

Thanks (70)

Tweet Type

@marianorajoy

AnnouncementsRepliesRT

39%

51%

10%

@conRubalcaba

AnnouncementsRepliesRT

Candidate Mentions

Assessment

Average daily assessment

International Media presence

@marianorajoy @conRubalcaba

Mentions 67351 55675

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

Facebook

Mariano Rajoy Rubalcaba

Friends 69599 47989

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

YouTube

“Rajoyistas por el mundo 1”

“Rajoyistas por el mundo 2”

“Rajoyistas por el mundo 3”

Rajoy responde(taxista) “Rubalcaba, sí” “Rubalcaba: escuchar, hacer, explicar”

“Acto de proclamación” “Pelea por lo que quieres”

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

4 Videos most seen by 21 November 2011

Klout

18-Oct

19-Oct

20-Oct

21-Oct

22-Oct

23-Oct

24-Oct

25-Oct

26-Oct

27-Oct

28-Oct

29-Oct

30-Oct

31-Oct

1-Nov

2-Nov

3-Nov

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

7-Nov

8-Nov

9-Nov

10-Nov

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

14-Nov

15-Nov

16-Nov

17-Nov

18-Nov

19-Nov

20-Nov

21-Nov

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

Google Trends

Channels

Fundraising

Campaign funding

Bonds

Affiliates

Public resources

ELECTION RESULTS

Election Results

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg6vStFB5A4

CONCLUSION

Conclusion

• Lessons learned1. Strategy, don´t lose

your way2. Primaries could be a

good idea3. Take care of your

people

• Predictions1. A very hard time2. Back to the streets3. New parties or new

approach inside the parties.

@rafarubio@dogcomunicacion

¡THANK YOU!