Post on 23-Dec-2015
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Cars in the FutureEnergy Policy, Forecasting & Modelling
Hannah Daly Sustainable Energy Research Group
Environmental Research InstituteUniversity College Cork
ERI Research Open Day December 15th, 2010
Summary of Motivations:
• Climate change & CO2
• Peak oil • Security of supply• Volatile oil prices• EU targets• Cars are particularly hard
Bottom-Up Car Stock Model
1. Disaggregate the fleet 1. Fuel type2. Age3. Engine size (cc band)
2. Characteristics of each type of car3. Econometric drivers: activity and
sales4. Demographic forecasting
3. Econometric Drivers
• Annual Sales & Vkm driven by GNP & fuel price
• Elasticities derived from historic regression
€
SalesT = SalesT −1 × (1+%GNPT ∗δIS ) × (1+%PT ∗δPS )
Scenario Analysis
• Change parameters to test policies..– Type of sales EV, new-car
efficiency targets– Economy & fuel price Impact of recession– Scrappage profile Scrappage scheme– Activity Modal shift, demand
reduction
• Compare energy, CO2 to baseline
Biogas: CNG vehicles
• 10% CNG vehicle target
• Lower carbon content
• Same efficiency as Diesel cars
• Possibility of renewable biomethane: 7.5%
Future Direction
• TIMES model: – What is the cost optimal technology mix to
reach targets?
• Modal shift – What are investment costs and payoffs for
public & non-motorised transport?
• Socio-economic technology modelling: – How does the changing socio-economic
profile effect modal and technology choice?