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RESISTING HEGEMONY RESISTING HEGEMONY ON THE NILEON THE NILE
III Workshop on Hydro-Hegemony12-13 May 2007
Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of London
ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND ABSTRACT MODEL OF HEGEMONY AND COUNTER-HEGEMONYCOUNTER-HEGEMONY
EGYPTIAN EGYPTIAN STATUS QUOSTATUS QUO??HISTORIC, ACQUIRED, AND
ESTABLISHED RIGHTS
• 55.5 bcm• 1959 Agreement• No infrastructures
upstream• Extreme Nile-dependence• Rule of Experts
BEYOND THE STATUS QUO
• More water• More facts-on-the-ground
MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . . MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM . . .
Consenting? Consenting?
oror
Contesting?Contesting?
SCARCITY OF POWER?SCARCITY OF POWER?• Civil wars• Political instability• Lack of investment• Lack of international
backup• Knowledge gap• Lack of expertise• Weak negotiation
tools+
• Different priorities• Dogmatic claims
Veiled Consent!
??
SUDAN – Between Hegemony SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistanceand Resistance
PASTAlly in the hegemonic
game
PRESENT Official consent,
unofficial contestation
SUDAN – Between Hegemony SUDAN – Between Hegemony and Resistanceand Resistance
FUTURENew oil-economy
New partners & investors
New ambitions?New hegemon?
ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistanceand Resistance
PASTNile as a mere
diplomatic weapon
PRESENT Official discourse
Nile = Development
ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest ETHIOPIA – Between Uninterest and Resistanceand Resistance
FUTURE
Systematic use of the Nile waters?
Irrigation?
Hydropower?
MECHANISMS OF RESISTANCEMECHANISMS OF RESISTANCE
1 – Violent 1 – Violent
2 – Functional2 – Functional
3 – Cooperative 3 – Cooperative
4 – Liberating4 – Liberating
• Military acts• Support to opposition groups • Internal violence• Bellicose threats
• Reactive Diplomacy• Pro-Active Diplomacy• Mobilise “alternative” funding• Unilateral infrastructures
• Cooperation with “internal” parties (excluding the hegemon)
• Cooperation with “internal” parties (including the hegemon)
• Cooperation involving with “external” parties
• Knowledge/Expertise construction• Discourse Alternatives• Coalitions with Progressive Forces
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE?NILE BASIN INITIATIVE?
Cooperation as DOMINATION?• Agenda setting
• Legal issues• Business-as-usual• State-nation based
Cooperation as BATTLEGROUND?• Creation of “new” knowledge
• Reduce expertise gap• Opportunities for new investment/infrastructures
• Potetial for Basin as the unity for action
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
• Some Resistance• No Counter-
Hegemony
• Riparians will not give up of national-based plans
• Hegemony in the Basin directly related with Global and Regional Politics