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POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
Ana Elisa CascãoKing’s College of London
Presentation to:“The Curse of Scarcity and Abundance?
Water and Oil Wars in the Gulf and Nile Basin” American University of Cairo
5th April 2008
NILE – HYDROLOGY AND POLITICS
NILE RIVER BASIN
• 1 River• 2 sub-Basins• 10 riparians• Unequal contribution• Unequal utilisation
Disparity of numbers
Main provider
Main user
NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY
1.8
58.3
30
64.5
122 122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/y
ear
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Actual Renewable Water Resources
NON-NILE
NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND UTILISATION
1.8
58.3
68.3
55.5
30
64.5
37.3
14
122 122
5.550.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/
year
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources Actual Renewable Water ResourcesTotal water withdrawalTotal withdrawal from the Nile
DEPENDENCY AND CONTROL
97%76.9%
0%
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
DEPENDENCY on external water resources (%)
169
8.7 3.5
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
TECHNICAL CONTROL - Total storage capacity (km3) LEGAL CONTROL - Allocations of the 1959 Agreement (km3)
Ethiopia0
Egypt55.5
Evapotranspiration 10
Sudan18.5
INEQUALITIES = CONFLICT?
Control
Allocation
Contribution
Utilisation
CONFLICT OF INTERESTS
Historical and acquired rights
Potential needs and uses
“New water”
Storage infrastructuresHydropower
Irrigation
Extreme dependence
Water for development
CONFLICT OF LANGUAGES
POWER RELATIONS MATTER!
EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIAGeography
Geography
GeographyMaterial power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Two Hydropolitical Dynamics:
Hegemony &
Counter-Hegemony
(Adapted from Zeitoun, 2005)
GEOPOLITICS ARE CHANGING!
USA
CHINA
EUROPE
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
World Bank
COOPERATION = EQUITY?
Equitable utilisation Development
Benefits
Nile Basin
Initiative
CURRENT COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
• Since 1999• Multilateral cooperation• Goal: Project-by-project• “Benefit-sharing”• Godfather: World Bank• Economic integration
COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
• Since 1997• Goal: New Nile Treaty• Equitable Utilisation + No harm• “Water-sharing”• Constructed Ambiguity• Nile Basin Commission =
Funding
CONFLICT PREVENTION*
Planned Water
Development
Generation of Benefits
Downstream
Alternative Water
Resources
Regional Virtual Water
Control of expansion of commercial agriculture
RelinquishSovereignty
Strong Water
Institutions
Neutral Knowledge
EthicsMulti-level
Cooperation
New Inclusive Agreeement
POLITICAL FLEXIBILITY
Thanks for your attention!