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Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart? Census 2000: Growing Together or Apart?
California’s RegionsCalifornia’s Regions
Hans JohnsonHans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California
johnson@ppic.orgjohnson@ppic.org
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OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
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California Population 1900-2000California Population 1900-2000(in thousands)(in thousands)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, California Department of Finance
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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
United States
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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Mexico
United States
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Comparisons of Population ChangeComparisons of Population Change1950=1001950=100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Mexico
California
United States
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California Population by Race/EthnicityCalifornia Population by Race/Ethnicity1970-20001970-2000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000
White Hispanic Asian/Other African American Mulitracial
Source: United States Census Bureau
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Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000Percent Foreign Born 1900-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
California
United States
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Latin America is the Latin America is the Leading Source of ImmigrantsLeading Source of Immigrants
Latin America 4,697,000 (55%)
Asia 2,915,000 (34%)
Europe 655,000 ( 8%)
Northern America 129,000
Africa 107,000
Oceania 68,000
Source: 2000 Census Supplemental Survey
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Immigrants Come to California Immigrants Come to California from Dozens of Countriesfrom Dozens of Countries
MEXICO PHILIPPINES VIETNAM EL SALVADOR CHINA
INDIA GUATEMALA TAIWAN CANADA KOREA
IRAN JAPAN GERMANY HONG KONG ENGLAND
SOUTH KOREA PAKISTAN NICARAGUA HONDURAS THAILAND
LAOS ARMENIA RUSSIA CAMBODIA FRANCE
PERU UKRAINE BRAZIL U.K. AUSTRALIA
ARGENTINA MYANMAR CUBA IRAQ ITALY
ROMANIA COLOMBIA INDONESIA PORTUGAL EGYPT
TURKEY LEBANON ISRAEL NIGERIA POLAND
GREECE SCOTLAND SOUTH AFRICA NETHERLANDS COSTA RICA
IRELAND JAMAICA BOSNIA & H. SPAIN BOLIVIA
ETHIOPIA PANAMA BELIZE SWEDEN SYRIA
ECUADOR CZECH REP. HUNGARY BELARUS CHILE
JORDAN FIJI AFGHANISTAN
Source: 2000 Census Supplementary Survey
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Source of Growth has ChangedSource of Growth has ChangedAnnual Population Change 1950-2000Annual Population Change 1950-2000 (in thousands)(in thousands)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
NET MIGRATION
NATURAL INCREASE
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Net Migration to CaliforniaNet Migration to California1970-1999 1970-1999 (in thousands)(in thousands)
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
International
Domestic
Source: California Department of Finance, unofficial estimates to 1980; Public Policy Institute of California 1980-1993; DOF 1993-1999 with CB for international migration
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Domestic Migration is Determined by Domestic Migration is Determined by Economic ConditionsEconomic Conditions
Unemployment Rate Differences and Net Domestic Migration Follow the Same Pattern
(3.0)
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
U.S
. min
us
Ca
lifo
rnia
un
em
plo
yme
nt r
ate
s
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
Ne
t do
me
stic
mig
ratio
n (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Unemployment rate in rest ofU.S. less Californiaunemployment rate (left scale)Net domestic migration (inthousands, right scale)
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Projections for California Diverge WidelyProjections for California Diverge Widely
25,000
Total population projections for California
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
DOF 98
CB Preferred
CB Alternative
BEA
UCLA
CCSCE Medium
CCSCE High
CCSCE LowPopulation(000)
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OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
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Defining California Regions:Geographic Building Blocks
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1981
1983 2003?
Changing Regional Definitions: The Bay Area
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Defining California’s Regions:
California in Two
Coastal California
Inland California
Southern California
Central and NorthernCalifornia
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Bay Area
CentralCoast
South Coast
San Diego
Far North
Sacramento Metro
Inland Empire
San Joaquin Valley
Sierras
Regional Definitions: California Divided by NineRegional Definitions: California Divided by Nine
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The View from San FranciscoThe View from San Francisco
The City
the hinterlands
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California’s Regions if States:California’s Regions if States:Area and PopulationArea and Population
Area and Population of California’s Regions
Land area 2000 population
Population per square
mile
Area equivalent Population equivalent
South Coast 6,696 13,118,824 1,959 Hawaii Illinois Bay Area 6,923 6,783,760 980 New Jersey Virginia San Joaquin Valley 27,276 3,302,792 121 South Carolina Oregon Inland Empire 27,260 3,254,821 119 West Virginia Connecticut San Diego 8,375 2,956,194 353 Massachussetts Iowa Sacramento Metro 5,094 1,796,857 353 Connecticut New Mexico Central Coast 11,198 1,356,626 121
Maryland and Delaware Idaho
Far North 43,853 1,122,483 26 Pennsylvania Hawaii Sierras 19,286 179,291 9
Vermont and New Hamphsire Guam
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Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:North and South Maintaining SharesNorth and South Maintaining Shares
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Northern andCentral CaliforniaSouthernCalifornia
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Regional Population Distribution:Regional Population Distribution:Inland Areas Increasing ShareInland Areas Increasing Share
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Inland California
Coastal California
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Relatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsRelatively Slow Growth in Coastal RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
State
Far N
orth
Bay A
rea
Centra
l Coa
st
South C
oast
San D
iego
1980-1990
1990-2000
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Relatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsRelatively Fast Growth in Inland RegionsPercent Change by DecadePercent Change by Decade
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
State
Sierra
s
Sacra
men
to M
etro
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Inla
nd Em
pire
1980-1990
1990-2000
66%
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Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Coastal RegionsCoastal Regions
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
State FarNorth
BayArea
CentralCoast
SouthCoast
SanDiego
Rat
e p
er t
ho
usa
nd
res
iden
ts
Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration
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Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Source of Population Growth in the 1990s:Inland RegionsInland Regions
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
State
Sierr
as
Sacra
men
to M
etro
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Inla
nd Em
pire
Ra
te p
er
tho
us
an
d r
es
ide
nts
Natural Increase Net international migration Net domestic migration
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Jobs and Population Growth: Jobs and Population Growth: Percent Change 1990-2000Percent Change 1990-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Inla
nd Em
pire
Sacra
men
to M
etro
San D
iego
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Bay A
rea
Far N
orth
Centra
l Coa
st
Sierr
as
South C
oast
Jobs
Population
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Jobs:Population ImbalanceJobs:Population ImbalanceNew Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000New Jobs per 1,000 New Residents, 1990-2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
South C
oast
Sierr
as
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Inla
nd Em
pire
Far N
orth
Centra
l Coa
st
Sacra
men
to M
etro
San D
iego
Bay A
rea
State
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Housing and Population GrowthHousing and Population GrowthPercent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000Percent Change in Housing Units and Population, 1990-2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Inla
nd Em
pire
Sacra
men
to M
etro
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Sierr
as
San D
iego
Bay A
rea
Centra
l Coa
st
Far N
orth
South C
oast
Housing Units
Population
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Accommodating Population Growth:Accommodating Population Growth:Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units, Percent of Population Growth Accommodated by Existing Housing Units,
1990-20001990-2000
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
South C
oast
Bay A
rea
Inla
nd Em
pire
Centra
l Coa
st
San D
iego
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Sacra
men
to M
etro
Sierr
as
Far N
orthSta
te
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OutlineOutline
The California ContextThe California Context
Regional Population TrendsRegional Population Trends
Characteristics of the PopulationCharacteristics of the Population
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Percent Foreign Born, 2000Percent Foreign Born, 2000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Sierr
as
Far N
orth
Sacra
men
to M
etro
Inla
nd Em
pire
San J
oaquin
Val
ley
Centra
l Coa
st
San D
iego
Bay A
rea
South C
oast
State
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Poverty Rate by County, 1999
Very High (20+)High (15-19.9)Moderate (10-14.9)Low (<10)
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Per Capita Income RankPer Capita Income Rankof California Metropolitan Areasof California Metropolitan Areas
San Francisco 1San Jose 4Oakland 18Orange County 25Santa Cruz-Watsonville 30
Santa Rosa 32Ventura 58
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria 59Salinas 68San Diego 78Sacramento 92Los Angeles-Long Beach 100Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa 122
Yolo (Davis-Woodland) 124San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 147
Redding 253Riverside-San Bernardino 272
Modesto 280Chico-Paradise 284Stockton-Lodi 285Fresno 298Bakersfield 304Yuba City 305
Visalia-Tulare-Porterville 308Merced 312
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Growing Apart:Growing Apart:Regional Per Capita Income Relative to StateRegional Per Capita Income Relative to State (100 = State PCI)(100 = State PCI)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
Bay Area
South Coast
Central Coast
San Diego
Sacramento Metro
Sierras
Far North
Inland Empire
San Joaquin Valley
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