Census Analysis &Policy-making in LondonLondon Census Information Scheme

17 JulyONS User Engagement Workshop

Analytical Output

Commissioned Work

Data Accessibility

London Datastore

London Datastore

Census Analysis to underpin Policy-making in London

1. Mixed and Balanced Communities

2. Claimant Count Model

3. Child Yield Estimation

4. London Infographics

Mixed & Balanced CommunitiesApplying Census Data

The brief

London Assembly asked us to identify areas of London that show the most diversity

Aim to track the impact of interventions on the mix and balance of communities across London

As a benchmark, look at the most diverse areas in 2001 and 2011

Diversity measured across a range of indicators - housing, economic and social characteristics

Domains

Tenure Accommodation type Household composition

Age Socio-Economic Group Ethnic group

Methodology

For each of the six domains:

Calculate Diversity Indices for 2001 and 2011 for local areas in London – Lower Super Output Areas were chosen as small enough to comprise local communities

Index change measures increasing or decreasing diversity between 2001 and 2011

Housing Tenure

2001 2011

Household Composition

2001 2011

Socio-Economic Group

2001 2011

Ethnicity

2001 2011

Measuring overall diversity

Accommodation type, Household Composition and age structure generally higher diversity in outer London

Only Tenure higher in inner London Ethnicity and SEG highest in “clusters”

Counted those LSOAs in top quartile across multiple domains

High Diversity in Multiple Domains

Number of domains0; 1; 2

3

4

5

6

20112001

GLA Claimant Count ModelIncorporating Census Data

Using the Census in GLA Claimant Count models GLA runs two Claimant Count models to

produce claimant count rates as a proportion of the labour force– Age, Sex and Duration (ward level)– Ethnic group, Age and Sex (LA level)

The models rely on bringing together data from a range of sources to produce something meaningful and useful

Monthly Claimant CountLabour force estimate

JSADWP ONS

GLA Population projections

Economic Activity Rates

Economic Activity Rates

age x sex

Ward population

age x sex

Migration(NHSCR + HESA) ONS

Births + DeathsONS registrations

InternationalMigration

(IPS ++)

HRP ratesage, sex &

marital status

Migrationage x sex

Dwellings

Forecast Dwelling Changes

Borough Planning Departments

Change in EconomicActivity Rates

APS

UCDWP ONS

How does the model work?

= census data

Why do we do it?

Wide differences in economic activity rates by age, sex and ethnic group, so labour force estimates give a better indication of the population “at risk” than purely age-based denominators

Used by Boroughs to track and monitor changes in rates for particular sub groups of the population and therefore target efforts and programmes.– Not the full picture of unemployment, but

• more up-to-date than ILO measures• can be done for more detailed geographic areas

Population Yield EstimationAdding value to Census Data

GLA Population Yield Model

Current Approach:– Sample data from Wandsworth and Oxford

New Approach– 2011 Census data– London development data

Development Sites & New OA’s

Yield Rates

Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms

Yield Rates

Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms

2 bedroom Market housing East London 0.276

children

Yield Rates

Geographically specific For Market & Social units By Number of bedrooms

3 bedroom Social housing South London 1.847

children

Yield Calculator

                  

      Market Units  

SocialUnits    

                   1 bedroom 1,774     269                       2 bedrooms  1,621    380                       3 bedrooms 1,449     608                   

    4 or more bedrooms  537    154    

      

                      

Yield Outputs

           

  West sub-region      

        Yield     0-9 year olds   2,657                 10-18 year olds   1,404                 Total   4,061             

4,061

West London

4,917

North London

3,855

East London

3,347

South London

3,180

Central London

Next Steps

Produce a total yield in 10-year age bands

Create a tool that allows bespoke geographic aggregations

CIS InfographicsVisualising Census Data

Information graphics (or infographics)Infographics are visual representations of data.They present information quickly and clearly.

CIS infographics

Country of Birth Demography Economic Activity Housing Qualifications Where students live

Demography

Demography

Demography

Demography

Demography

Demography

Demography

Housing

The Labour Market

Data.london.gov.uk/census

Bringing infographics to life

Census Information Scheme

http://data.london.gov.uk/census

census@london.gov.uk

Richard WalkerRichard Cameron

William TonkissJack Ryan