Challenges for sustainable energy and interactions with ... · Challenges for sustainable energy...

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Challenges for sustainable energy and interactions with other sustainability goals

Volker KreyDeputy Program DirectorIIASA Energy Program

28 September 2016

Energy and Climate Change

Image: Joeri Rogelj; History: HadCRUT4

“Holding the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2 °Cabove pre-industrial levels and to pursueefforts to limit the temperature increaseto 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”

The Long-Term Temperature GoalParis Agreement Article 2

Paris Agreement

Image: Joeri Rogelj; History: HadCRUT4

“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit thetemperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”

The Long-Term Temperature Goal, Paris Agreement Article 2

Paris climate ambition

“In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2,Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon aspossible […], and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordancewith best available science, so as to achieve a balance betweenanthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhousegases in the second half of this century”

Paris Agreement Article 4

Emissions implicationsHow much remains for 1.5°C and 2°C?

For 2°C >66% (is this “well below”?)• About 1000 GtCO2 after 2011

(IPCC AR5 SYR)• 590–1240 GtCO2 after 2015

(post-AR5 literature)

For 1.5°C• 550 GtCO2 after 2011

(IPCC AR5 SYR)• 650 GtCO2 since 2010-2020 average

CMIP5 (present-day adjusted)

Context:• Current annual emissions ~40 GtCO2/yr• Until 2011: about 1900 GtCO2 emitted

Figure: IPCC AR5 WGI SPM.10

Scenario implicationsInternal consistency Paris Agreement

Source: IPCC AR5 Scenario Database; Rogelj et al. 2015

range of INDC estimates for 2030

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

MicrochipCommercial

aviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

RenewablesNuclear

Global Primary EnergyIndustrial Revolution until Today

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Source: Riahi et al. (2012)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass Microchip

Commercialaviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

RenewablesNuclear

Global Primary EnergySupply focus – high Nuclear

Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – no CCS, no Nuclear

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass Microchip

Commercialaviation

TelevisionVacuum

tubeGasolineengine

Electricmotor

Steam engine

Nuclearenergy

Biomass

RenewablesNuclear

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

RenewablesNuclear

Nuclear phase-out (choice)

Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – no CCS, no Nuclear

Gas stagnating

Coal phase-out (necessary)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

RenewablesNuclear

Limited variable Renewables (choice)

Gas expansion (with CCS)

Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – limited Bioenergy and variable Renewables

Some Coal (with CCS)

Water Use in the Energy Sector

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterWithdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption

Baseline

Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterWithdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption

Baseline

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterAlternative Technology Choices for 2C (intermediate energy demand)

Withdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption

Uncertainty Range

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterHigh Energy Demand

Uncertainty Range

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterLow Energy Demand (Efficiency)

Uncertainty Range

Impact of Energy Sector on WaterEfficiency + Water Adaptation Policies

Uncertainty Range

Equity and Energy Poverty

Final Energy – Regional Distribution

Source: Global Energy Assessment – Grubler et al. (2012)

Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

Global Lorenz Distributions

Wealth per capita 2014

GDP (MER) per capita 2000

GDP (PPP) per capita 2000

Electricity per capita 2010

Mobile phones per capita 2013

CO2 emissions per capita 2010

Source: Global Energy Assessment, IIASA

1.3 billion 0.6 billion

onechildonelight.orgitimes.com

Energy Poverty in South Asia

Useful Energy for Cooking per HH

R1 R2 R3 R4 U1 U2 U3 U4

hh LPGKeroseneSolid Fuel

Data: NSSO, 2007Rural HH (by income) Urban HH (by income)

South Asia

Solid Fuel DependenceNo New Policies

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid

No New PolicyClimate and Access

South Asia

Source: Cameron et al., 2016

Solid Fuel DependenceEffect of 2°C Climate Policy

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid

2° Climate PolicyNo New PolicyClimate and Access

South Asia

Integrated Climate and Access Policies

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid

2° Climate PolicyNo New PolicyClimate and Access

South Asia

Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits of Climate Policy

Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.6/6.33

Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits

t al.,

Energy Security

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Co-Benefits of Climate Policy for Energy Security

Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure 6.33

increasing energy independence

increasingclimate protection

Source: Jewell et al., 2016

€€€€€€€€€€

Energy independence

Climate Pledges

2°C€

Oil independence

Energy Independence vs. Climate Policy

Food Security, Climate Impacts and Mitigation

Source: Hasegawa et al. 2015

Food availability and hunger

Holistic Strategies (and more Research) needed

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level

At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level

At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

Policy Prioritization Framework

CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security

Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

D. McCollum, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2011)

Only ClimateOnly PollutionOnly Energy Security

All Three Objectives

Integrated Climate-Pollution-Security Policies

“Single minded” approachesfor multiple challenges

LiteratureClimate Change• Riahi et al. (2012) Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. The Global Energy

Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Water• Fricko, Parkinson et al. (2016) Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy.

Environmental Research Letters 11:034011.Energy poverty• Cameron, Pachauri et al. (2016) Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-

stove access in South Asia. Nature Energy 1:15010.Air quality and health• Rao, Pachauri et al. (2013) Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy

access, climate change and air pollution. Global Environmental Change 23:1122-1130.Energy Security• Jewell et al. (2016) Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy

independence and climate policies. Nature Energy 1:16073Food Security• Hasegawa et al. (2015) Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger. Environmental

Science and Technology 49:7245-7253.Multiple sustainable development objectives• McCollum et al. (2011) An integrated approach to energy sustainability. Nature Climate Change

1:428-429.

Thank You!

Volker KreyIIASA Energy Program

http://www.iiasa.ac.at krey@iiasa.ac.at

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