Post on 12-Sep-2020
transcript
CHARTBOOK | August 2020
Topic Page
Market Returns 3 - 5
Valuations 6 - 19
Local Economics 20 - 27
Global Economics 28 - 33
Local Markets 34 - 42
Offshore Markets 43 - 49
Currencies 50 - 54
Commodities 55 - 60
Market Returns
Local Market
Morningstar Direct as at: 31/08/2020
Offshore Market
Morningstar Direct as at: 31/08/2020
Valuations
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE All Share7-Year PE
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE Top 407-Year PE
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE Mid Cap7-Year PE
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE Industrial 257-Year PE
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE Financial 157-Year PE
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE Resource 207-Year PE
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property7-Year PE
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
S&P 5007-Year PE
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Dow Jones Industrials7-Year PE
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE 1007-Year PE
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Nikkei 2257-Year PE
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Hang Seng7-Year PE
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Euro Stoxx 507-Year PE
SA Economics
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
5,5
6,5
7,5
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
SA CPI7-Year Growth
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2013/08/31 2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
South Africa - Business Confidence Index7-Year Growth
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
SA Retail Sales YoY Growth (%)5-Year Growth
445
450
455
460
465
470
475
480
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2014/08/31 2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
SA CPI vs CRB Index6-Year Price
SACPIYOY Index CRB CMDT Index
7,26
9,14
11,26 11,34
6,50
7,50
8,50
9,50
10,50
11,50
12,50
5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
SA Bond Yields5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields
Implied SA 10 Year Bond Yield vs Actual Yield
SA 10yr Fair Value 5,76%
Trading at 9,14%
Cheap/(Expensive) 3,38%
6,72
0,73
2,13
2,909,14
US 10Y Avg Inf Diff SA CDS Spread SA 10Y
5,76
6
7
8
9
10
11
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
US 10 Year vs SA 10 Year2-Year Yields
US 10 Year Yield SA 10 Year Yield
Global Economics
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Market Volatility Index (VIX)5-Year Price
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Eurozone - Consumer Confidence5-Year Price
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
China (Mainland) - Consumer Confidence5-Year Price
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Developed Market Bond Yields10 Year Yields
USGG10YR Index GUKG10 Index GTDEM10Y Govt
0,27
0,72
1,431,49
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year
US Bond Yields5 vs 10 vs 20 vs 30 Year Yields
Local Markets
37000
42000
47000
52000
57000
62000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index5-Year Price
33000
38000
43000
48000
53000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40 Tradeable Index5-Year Price
18000
23000
28000
33000
38000
43000
48000
53000
58000
63000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Resource 10 Index5-Year Price
42000
52000
62000
72000
82000
92000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Industrial 25 Index5-Year Price
7500
9500
11500
13500
15500
17500
19500
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Financial 15 Index5-Year Price
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Mid Cap Index5-Year Price
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Johannesburg Stock Exchange Small Cap Index5-Year Price
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
SA Listed Prop Index5-Year Price
Offshore Markets
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
S&P 500 Index5-Year Price
13000
16000
19000
22000
25000
28000
31000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Dow Jones Industrial Index5-Year Price
4550
5050
5550
6050
6550
7050
7550
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
FTSE 100 Index5-Year Price
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Nikkei 225 Index5-Year Price
17500
19500
21500
23500
25500
27500
29500
31500
33500
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Hang Seng Index5-Year Price
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Euro Stoxx 50 Index5-Year Price
Currencies
85
90
95
100
105
110
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
DXY US Dollar Currency Index5-Year Price
9
11
13
15
17
19
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
US Dollar/South African Rand FX Spot Rate5-Year Price
1
1,05
1,1
1,15
1,2
1,25
1,3
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Euro/US Dollar FX Spot Rate5-Year Price
1,1
1,15
1,2
1,25
1,3
1,35
1,4
1,45
1,5
1,55
1,6
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
UK Pound Sterling/US Dollar FX Spot Rate5-Year Price
Commodities
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Gold Spot Commodity5-Year Price
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Platinum Spot Commodity5-Year Price
5
25
45
65
85
105
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Brent Crude5-Year Price
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Copper Spot5-Year Price
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
2015/08/31 2016/08/31 2017/08/31 2018/08/31 2019/08/31 2020/08/31
Commodity Research Bureau Index5-Year Price
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END