ToprojectChina’selectricitydemandfromtheresidentialsectorforthe2015-2050periodataprovinciallevel,underdifferentdemographicandsocio-economicscenarios:

Method

ObjectiveIntroduction

• Providingaffordable,reliable,cleanelectricityinChinarequiresarobustplanningprocessthataccountsforuncertainties

• Robustcapacityplanninginthepowersystemrequirescharacterizingtheuncertaintyonfutureelectricitydemand

• Electricitydemand fromtheresidentialsectorisgrowingfast

• Thereisanurgentneedtoidentifyandunderstandthedriversoffutureelectricitydemand intheresidentialsector

• Thisresearchdirectlycontributestoprojectionoffutureelectricitydemandin theresidential sectorfromthebottom-up

China's Electricity Future: A Provincial Scenario Analysis towards 2050

Results

DataFramework

Module Variable No.

Population NationalTFRandallocatedtoprovinces 4

Urbanization PercapitaGDPgrowth 3

Householdsize&

Penetration

Householdsize 3

Percapitaincomegrowth 3

Decomposition model

Outputs• Rural: total ownership by appliance• Urban: total ownership by appliance

Integratingmodel

Population by province

Dynamicmodel

Base year input

• Men by agegroup• Women by agegroup

Scenario design

• Birth rate• Death rate• Sex ratio

Population Module

Urbanization by province

Law ofurbanization development

Regression model

Independent variable• Economic development

Dependent variable• Urbanization rate

Scenario design• Economic growth by province

Urbanization Module

• Rural penetration by province• Urban penetration by province

Regressionmodel

Rural & Urban

• Independent: Income;household size

• Dependent: penetration

Scenario design

• Income growth byprovince

Relationship: income& penetration

• Rural• Urban

AppliancePenetration Module

• Rural• Urban

Scenario design for size of household

Number of household

• Rural• Urban

Penetration of appliances per household

Impact of each driver

Total appliances owned

ScenariosConclusion

Penetrationofappliances§ Differencesbetweenurbanandruralregionswillnarrow§ Currentdisparitiesbetweenregionswilltendtodisappear§ Appliancepenetrationgrowthwillbeledbyadoptionof

ACsandPCsTotalappliancesowned§ Mostapplianceswillbeownedbyurbanhouseholds§ ApplianceownershipwillbeconcentratedinEasternChina§ Undersomepossiblefuturescenarios,appliance

ownershipwillreachapeakduringtheanalysisperiod§ PCsownedbyhouseholdsin2050willalmosttripleImpactofdrivers§ Penetrationofappliances(asfunctionofincome)hasa

higherimpactthanpopulation,urbanization,orhouseholdsizeontheestimatedtotalnumberofappliances

§ Reductionsinownershiparedueto population decline

Future work• Developabottom-upframeworkto

characterizeelectricitydemandscenarios

• Createatooltoforecastlong-termelectricitydemandatthehourlytemporalscale

Fundedby dalia.patino@duke.edu;mingquan.li@duke.edu

Mingquan Li, Rui Shan, Mauricio Hernandez, Varun Mallampalli & Dalia Patiño-Echeverri DukeUniversity,Durham,NC,USA

• Saturation:Penetrationofhouseholdelectricappliancesperhousehold

• Totalend-useequipment:Totalnumberofunitsofeachapplianceinaprovince

Populationchange

Urbanization

Downsizinghousehold

Incomegrowth

Drivers FeaturesHighgeographicalresolution-Urban&Rural,31Provinces

Underuncertainty:108scenarios

Mainenduses:6appliances(AirConditioner(AC),Microwave,Washer,Refrigerator,TV,andPersonalComputer(PC))

Longterm:2015-2050

Appliancepenetrationperhousehold

Urbanization

Population

Integratingmodel

Module Variable Year Source

Population

Population

2010

6th PopulationCensusofthePeople’sRepublicofChina

Deathrate

Birthrate

UrbanizationUrbanizationrate

2005-2014NationalStatisticalYearbook2006-2015

GDPPopulation

Householdsize Householdsize 2013

StatisticalYearbookfor31provinces2014&2015

PenetrationPenetrationrate

2000-2012StatisticalYearbookfor31provinces2001-2015Percapitaincome