Post on 10-Apr-2020
transcript
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US LNG Exports Chris Pedersen
LNG Pricing Analyst - Americas
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Disclaimer
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Agenda
3
• Global LNG Overview
• Infrastructure capabilities
• Supply
• Demand
• US LNG Overview
• Liquefaction Capacity
• US LNG deliveries
• Pricing Mechanisms for Global & US LNG
• Evolution of contracts/prices
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Putting global LNG in perspective
Private & Confidential 4
• Global Natural Gas Demand: ~122 Tcf or 335 Bcf/d (2015)
• Lower-48 US Natural Gas Demand: ~27.1 Tcf or 74Bcf/d (2016)
• Global LNG Demand: ~11.7 Tcf or 32 Bcf/d (2015)
• Roughly 70% of all gas is consumed in the country it is produced.
• Since 2000, LNG demand has grown about 6.6% a year, compared to
2.8% for natural gas.
• About 114 countries use natural gas as a fuel source, while only 33
nations import LNG.
Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data, IGU, IEA, CIA World Fact Book
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Global LNG infrastructure overview
Private & Confidential 5
Liquefaction
Global LNG Liquefaction Capacity: 301.5 MTPA or 38.6 Bcf/d
2015 utilization rate: 81%
LNG Exporting Countries: 19
LNG Re-Exporting Countries: 10
IEA report forecasts liquefaction capacity to grow 45% between 2015-2021.
Regasification
Global LNG Regasification Capacity: 757 MTPA or 96.9 Bcf/d
2015 utilization rate: 32%
LNG importing countries: 37
Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data, IGU
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Natural Gas
6
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Asia Pacific Middle East Europe Americas Africa
LNG exports by region
Vo
lum
e (
Bcf
)
Year to Sep 2015 Year to Sep 2016
Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data
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Natural Gas
7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Qatar Australia Malaysia Indonesia United States
LNG exports by country
Year to Sep 2015 Year to Sep 2016
Source: Platts Analytics’ Eclipse Data
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Natural Gas
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Japan South Korea Middle East SouthAmerica
Europe China
LNG imports by country
Year to Sep 2015 Year to Sep 2016
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Natural Gas
Source: Platts Analytics 9
Middle Eastern Demand Profile pre FSRUs
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Middle Eastern Demand (Mcm)
Dubai Kuwait
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Natural Gas
Source: Platts Analytics 10
New Indian Ocean Demand
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
Dec-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Demand from the Middle East and Pakistan (Mcm of gas)
Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan
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Natural Gas
Source: Platts. Private & Confidential. 11
New Indian Ocean Demand
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Middle Eastern and South Asian Demand (Mcm of gas)
India Dubai Kuwait Egypt Jordan Pakistan
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Natural Gas
12
• Jamaica – Golar Arctic FSU - 2016
• Malta – Waka Maru FSU - 2016
• Abu Dhabi – Excelerate – 2016
• Colombia – Hoegh Grace – 2016
• Ghana – Golar Tundra – 2017
• Pakistan – BW Integrity – 2017
• Egypt – Out to tender – 2017
FSRU’s going forward…
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LNG Pricing Mechanisms
Private & Confidential 13
Oil-Indexed
Example: 13% of Brent
Gas-Linked
Example: 115% of NYMEX, contracts based off of differentials of NBP or TTF
Benchmarks
Example: Platts JKM™
Assessments
Example: Platts GCM, EAM, NWE, Des West India
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Natural Gas
14
Continuous Pricing and Market Coverage
• As each market closes, information is passed onto the next desk in the following time-zone,
allowing for continuous price and market data gathering
• Allows for wider survey of market participants; portfolio players, traders, end-users etc..
Houston:
Gulf Coast
marker
assessed
at 13:30;
LNG Daily
published;
intel sent to
Singapore/
Tokyo
London: Atlantic
markers assessed
at 16:30; intel sent
to Houston Singapore: Platts
JKM™ and West
India assessed at
16:30; intel sent to
London
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Natural Gas
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
JKM 14.5% Dated Brent + $0.50/MMBtu NBP Henry Hub
15
JKMTM
pricing since 2009 $
/MM
Btu
Source: S&P Global Platts
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16
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
16
-Ju
n
23
-Ju
n
30
-Ju
n
7-J
ul
14
-Ju
l
21
-Ju
l
28
-Ju
l
4-A
ug
11
-Au
g
18
-Au
g
25
-Au
g
1-S
ep
8-S
ep
15
-Sep
22
-Sep
29
-Sep
6-O
ct
13
-Oct
West India NBP JKM GCM
Prices as of October 20, 2016
Platts launches the FOB Gulf Coast Marker (GCM)
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Thank You Chris Pedersen North America LNG Analyst Managing Editor – LNG Daily S&P Global Platts Chris.Pedersen@spglobal.com