Post on 11-Apr-2015
transcript
CONTENTS
A - Trend Analysis – USD, JPY & Petrol
B - Highlights – Nov ‘08
C- PAMA ANALYSIS
An overview of the auto sector• Total auto sector sales
Overview of Hyundai’s performance• Santro Vs Cultus & Alto• Shehzore vs. Hilux & Master• Santro & Shehzore sales
Market share of DFML in Medium Passenger car & LCV segment• Market share of DFML in Medium Passenger car & LCV segment
Hyundai as compared to other brands
Auto sector analysisP C• Passenger Cars
• Large passenger cars• Small passenger cars• Trucks• Buses
Motorcycles• Motorcycles• Tractors
Trend Analysis of PKR – USDNov ‘08
90.00
Increase Nov’08 = PKR (2.2)% Increase Nov’ 08 = (2.7%)
66.94 68.45
71.5276.76
78.20
81.2079.00
70.00
80.00
61.28 62.33 62.82 62.72 63.6566.94
40.00
50.00
60.00
20.00
30.00
0.00
10.00
Dec '07 Jan '08 Feb '08 Mar '08 Apr '08 May '08 Jun '08 Jul '08 Aug '08 Sep '08 Oct '08 Nov '08
USD - PKR
Trend Analysis of PKR – JPYNov ‘08
0.83000.9000
Increase Nov ’08 = PKR (0.005)% Increase Nov ’08 = (0.59%)
0.58680.6227
0.6341
0.6878
0.7054
0.73420.8350
0.8300
0.7000
0.8000
0.5453
0.57890.6204 0.6470
0.4000
0.5000
0.6000
0.1000
0.2000
0.3000
0.0000
Dec '07 Jan '08 Feb '08 Mar '08 Apr '08 May '08 Jun '08 Jul '08 Aug '08 Sep '08 Oct '08 Nov '08
YEN - PKR
Comparison B/W Diesel, Petrol & CNG PricesNov ‘08
86.786.7
90.00
100.00
64 64
68.14
61 6065.8
68.8
75.7
86.7
76.6
66.670.00
80.00
38.73 38.73 38.73
32 5736.07 36.07 41.59
44.59 49.05
64.64 61.60
47.2544.5 44.5 44.5
53.7 53.7 53.753.7
62.8
40.00
50.00
60.00
32.57
24 24
35 35
37 37 37 38.2
20.00
30.00
0.00
10.00
Dec '07 Jan '08 Feb '08 Mar '08 Apr '08 May '08 Jun '08 Jul '08 Aug '08 Sep '08 Oct '08 Nov '08
Price Diesel (PKR/ Ltr) Price CNG (PKR/ Kg) Price Petrol
Highlights During Nov ‘08
Automakers reluctant to cut prices
Rs 500m subsidy for new transport operators
1,000 CNG buses in four months
Vendors, carmakers to seek govt. rescue
Import value of Chinese bike parts fixed
Honda Atlas reports loss
5th CNG exhibition to begin from Dec 2
G dd li it t t b k lGermany adds limits to car tax break plans
Committee on blending of Ethanol for motor vehicle, bio‐fuel technology formed
Hinopak to export buses from PakistanHinopak to export buses from Pakistan
Imported cars ‐ Hearing of petition against luxury tax adjourned
T t l S l 81 078
Auto Sector Sales Including Trucks & Buses
80,000
90,000 Total Sales = 55,398
Total Sales = 80,832Growth = 11%
Total Sales = 81,078Growth = 0%
Total Sales = 50,627Growth = (37%)
Total Sales = 72,569Growth = 31%
61%2 %
50,000
60,000
70,000
2%
39% 15%3%
32%
61%30%39% 21%
20 000
30,000
40,000
52% 57%34%
9%
45% 35%2%
58%
3% 46%
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08-
10,000
20,000 28% 10%
3% 46%
4x4 Jeeps 685 954 1,151 448 581
Trucks & Buses 1,388 1,931 2,221 2,165 1,472
Pickups 3,483 5,043 3,390 3,465 1,463
Econo Cab 3,795 5,782 9,074 12,185 13,253
Passenger Cars 46,047 58,859 64,996 62,815 33,858
4x4 Jeeps Trucks & Buses Pickups Econo Cab Passenger Cars
Color coded percentages are the YOY growth of the different segments
Auto Sector Sales Without Trucks & Buses
80 000
90,000 Total Sales = 70,638Growth = 31%
Total Sales =78,611Growth = 11% Total Sales =78,913
Growth = 0%
T l S l 49 155
60,000
70,000
80,000 Total Sales 54,010
Total Sales = 49,155Growth = (38%)
33% 2% 58%
30%61%21%
39%
30,000
40,000
50,000 45%33% 2% 58%
46%
52% 57% 34% 9%
J l N '04 J l N '05 J l N '06 J l N '07 J l N '08-
10,000
20,000 28% 10% 3% 46%
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
4x4 Jeeps 685 954 1,151 448 581
Pickups 3,483 5,043 3,390 3,465 1,463
Econo Cab 3,795 5,782 9,074 12,185 13,253
Passenger Cars 46,047 58,859 64,996 62,815 33,858
4x4 Jeeps Pickups Econo Cab Passenger Cars
Color coded percentages are the YOY growth of the different segments
Sales – 1000ccSantro Vs. Cultus & Alto
Total Sales = 20,526Overall growth = 29%
Cultus growth rate = 37%Alto growth rate = 52%
Santro growth rate =(43%)Total Sales = 19,972
Overall growth = (3%)
1,538 1,304 20,000
25,000 Total Sales = 15,959
Overall growth = 26%Cultus growth rate = 44%
Alto growth rate = 31%Santro growth rate = (11%)
Santro growth rate =(43%) Overall growth (3%)Cultus growth rate = 5%Alto growth rate = (9%)
Santro growth rate = (15%)
Total Sales = 9,316
5,781
8,779 7,991
3,037
2,703 15,000
Total Sales = 12,632 Overall growth = (53%)Cultus growth rate = (49%)
Alto growth rate = (54%)Santro growth rate = (91%)
5,181 7,475
10,209 10,677
5,488
4,414
5,781
3,712
116
5,000
10,000
5, 88
-
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
H d i S t S ki Alt S ki C ltHyundai Santro Suzuki Alto Suzuki Cultus
Market Share – 1000cc
59% 40% 1%July - Nov '08
53% 40% 7%July - Nov '07
50% 43% 7%July - Nov '06
41%
47%
35%
36%
24%
17%
J l N '04
July - Nov '05
41% 35% 24%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Suzuki Cultus Suzuki Alto Hyundai Santro
Sales 1-2.5 Ton Pickup
6,000
Total Sales = 5,043Overall growth = 45%
Toyota Hilux growth = (2%)Shehzore growth = 44%
622
4 000
5,000
Total Sales = 3,483
Total Sales = 3,390Overall growth = (33%)Hilux growth = (97%)
Shehzore growth = (9%)Master growth = (24%)
Total Sales = 3,286Overall growth = (3%)
Hilux growth = (100%)Shehzore growth = 3%Master growth = (31%)
3,161
-
472 325 3,000
4,000
Total Sales = 1,463Overall growth = (55%)
Shehzore growth = (70%)Master growth = (95%)
2,194
2,885 2,961
874
15
1,000
2,000
1,289 1,260
33 -
574 -
,
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Master Hyundai Shehzore Toyota Hilux
Market Share 1-2.5 Pickup
39% 60% 1%July - Nov '08
0% 90% 10%July - Nov '07
1% 85% 14%July - Nov '06
25% 63% 12%July - Nov '05
37% 63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Toyota Hilux Hyundai Shehzore Master
Santro & Shehzore Sales
5,864 6 000
7,000 Growth = 12%
5,231
4,423 4,265
5,000
6,000
Growth = (25%)Growth = (4%)
40%12%
(13%)
(34%)
(20)%
3,000
4,000
(69%)(14%)
(34%)
(92%)
3,037
2,703
1,538
2,194 3,161
2,885 2,961
990 1,000
2,000 Growth = (77%)
1,304 116 874
-
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Hyundai Santro Hyundai Shehzore Total Linear (Hyundai Santro) Linear (Hyundai Shehzore)
Combined Market Share of Medium Passenger Cars & LCVs
21% 79%July - Nov '08
29% 71%July - Nov '07
30% 70%July - Nov '06
29% 71%July - Nov '05
29% 71%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Medium Passenger car + LCV Others (Auto Market w/o Medium Passenger cars & LCVs)
Market Share of DFML In Medium Passenger Cars & LCVs
9% 91%July - Nov '08
18% 82%July - Nov '07
18% 82%July - Nov '06
28% 72%July - Nov '05
32% 68%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Santro+ Shehzore Others (Other Medium Passenger cars & LCVs)
Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov YOY Jul-Nov
Brand Wise Sales – Passenger Cars & LCVs
’04 Growth ’05 Growth ’06 Growth ’07 Growth ’08
Honda 6,886 79% 12,317 (41%) 7,236 (15%) 6,122 (16%) 5,135
Suzuki 23,595 28% 30,167 20% 36,225 (1%) 35,692 (52%) 17,236
Toyota 10,388 12% 11,686 25% 14,658 2% 15,018 (44%) 8,428
Nissan 1 (100%) - - - - - - -
Kia 177 (100%) - - - - - - -
Hyundai 5,231 12% 5,864 (25%) 4,423 (4%) 4,265 (77%) 990
Daihatsu 3,252 0% 3,246 65.5% 5,372 (10%) 4,858 (28%) 3,517
Master (LCV) - - 622 (24%) 472 (31%) 325 (95%) 15
Total 49,530 63,902 68,386 66,280 35,321Total 49,530 63,902 68,386 66,280 35,321
Growth 29% 7% (3%) (47%)
Brand Wise Market Share – Passenger Cars & LCVsJul- Nov ‘08Jul Nov 08
July '08
15%3%10%
24%
49%
Honda Suzuki Toyota Hyundai Daihatsu Master
Auto Segment Wise Market Share With Trucks & Buses
67% 26% 3%3% 1%July - Nov '08
77% 15% 4% 3% 1%July - Nov '07
80% 11% 4% 3% 1%July - Nov '06
81% 8% 7% 3% 1%July - Nov '05
83% 7% 6% 3% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Passenger Cars Econo Cab Pickups Trucks & Buses SUVs
Auto Sector Segment Wise Growth Rate (%)
Segment July-Nov '05 July-Nov '06 July-Nov '07 July-Nov '08
Passenger cars 28% 10% (3%) (46%)
Econo Cabs 52% 57% 34% 9%
Pickups 45% (33%) 2% (58%)
Trucks & buses 39% 15% (3%) (32%)
SUVs/4x4 39% 21% (61%) 30%
64,996 62,815
Category Wise Sales of Passenger Cars
46,047
58,859
, ,
60,000
70,000
28%
10%3%
17,215
19,797 20,211
50,000
15%
2%46%
12 632
15,959 20,52619,972
15,221
11,142
33,858
30,000
40,000
26%
29%
3%
13%
15%
45%
18 19425,685 24,673
22,632
12,632
9,316
10 000
20,000
26%
53%
41% 8%4%
18,194
13,400
0
10,000
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
41%
800cc 1000cc 1300-2000cc
Category Wise Share of Passenger Cars
40% 28% 33%July - Nov '08
36% 32% 32%July - Nov '07
38% 32% 30%July - Nov '06
44% 27% 29%July - Nov '05
40% 27% 33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
1300-2000cc 1000cc 800cc
Large Passenger Cars Product - Wise Sales
-
25,685
30,000 Growth = 41%
Growth = (4%)Growth = (8%)
(100%)
10,426
-
-
7
18,194
24,673
22,632
20,000
25,000
15%
40%
(100%)
(100%)
2,942
-
9,099
14,625
14,839
1
170 7
13,400 15,000
(100%)
15%1%
Growth = (41%)
45%
3,077
6,237
4,857 3 840
2,031 -
-
- 2,812
1,671
411
7,854
5,000
10,000
(21%)
(23%)
(47%)
(75%)
(41%)(22%)103%
3,809 6,080
2,379 2,282 2,194
,3,840 2,941
-
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
60% (61%)(4%) (4%)
( )
Kia (Classic NGV) Nissan (Sunny) Toyota (Corolla) Suzuki (Liana)
Suzuki (Baleno) Honda (City) Honda (Civic)
Large Passenger Cars Product - Wise Share
16% 22% 3% 59%July - Nov '08
10% 17% 7% 66%July - Nov '07
10% 20% - 11% 59%July - Nov '06
21%
24%
17%
24%
11%
11%
50%
41%
July - Nov '04
July - Nov '05
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Honda (Civic) Honda (City) Suzuki (Baleno)
Suzuki (Liana) Toyota (Corolla) Kia (Classic NGV)
Small Passenger Cars Product - Wise Sales
40,000
45,000
13%15%
2%30,000
35,000
45%
15,221 17,215
19,797 20,211
11 142
20,000
25,000
17%6%
50%3%
0% 10% 28%
11,969 13,969
14,425 15,353
7,625
11,142
10,000
15,000
0%65%
10% 28%
3,252 3,246 5,372 4,858 3,517
-
5,000
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Daihatsu Cuore Suzuki Mehran Total sales
Small Passenger Cars Product - Wise Share
32% 68%July - Nov '08
24% 76%July - Nov '07
27% 73%July - Nov '06
19% 81%July - Nov '05
21% 79%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Daihatsu Cuore Suzuki Mehran
4 000
Brand Wise Sales - Trucks
3,500
4,000
2,500
3,000
17%
89%
8%
27%
416 275 -
69 -
1,536
1,803 1,656
1,202 1,500
2,000
27%
(37%)
(34%)
(6%)
38%
374517
374 369
176 11
35 2
-
20
177 166
105
163
-
302
135
-
-811
1,000
54% (22%)38%
(28%) (1%)
(52%)
(94%) (100%)
55%
(51%)
218%
426 505 776
907 708
374
-
500
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
19%
54%17%
(22%)
Volvo Isuzu Master Dong Feng Nissan Hino
Brand Wise Share - Trucks
59% 15% 2% 14% 11%July - Nov '08
55% 22% 6% 17%July - Nov '07
43% 21% 9% 23% 4%July - Nov '06
33% 34% 2% 12% 20%July - Nov '05
53% 46% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Hino Nissan Dong Feng Master Isuzu Volvo
Brand Wise Sales - Buses
577
600
700
Growth = 22%
41
22
28
-
81395 418
509
500
286%
38%(48%)
Growth = (32%)
(100%)(78%)
Growth = 6%
100%
508 12
16
22
23
12-
-
-
-
96
21
38
270300
400
(71%)
Growth = (47%)33%
38%
(53%)
(18%)
260
368404
225
- --38
100
200
( )
(49%)
42% 10% (53%)
(73%)
(44%)
0
July - Nov '04 July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Isuzu Master Dong Feng Nissan Hino
Brand Wise Share - Buses
83% 2% 14%July - Nov '08
79% 4% 16%July - Nov '07
88% 4%3% 5%July - Nov '06
`̀
88%
66%
7%
3%
5%
6%1% 24%
July Nov '04
July - Nov '05
88% 7% 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
July - Nov '04
Hino Nissan Dong Feng Master Isuzu
36%
Brand Wise Sales - Motorcycles28%
173,822
146 027
198,097 207,450
200,000
250,000
5%
(21%)(56%)
16%
(26%)44%
(10%)
17%
2%
(17%)
245%
(20%)
(10%)
(56%)(10%)(2%)
146,027
100,000
150,000 11%
(53%)
(32%)
(23%)(39%)
July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Sazgar Three wheeler 978 1,250
i( i i )
-
50,000 (8%)
28% 19%
Ravi(HKF Engineering) 7,840 7,722
Fateh Hero 12,748 9,449 9,673 8,752
Qingqi 7,200 3,149 10,877 4,830
Triwheeler 820 651 584 523
Sohrab 5,838 2,764 2,284 2,739
S kiSuzuki 6,114 6,760 9,756 7,471
Yamaha 26,282 17,783 20,745 12,604
Honda 114,820 105,471 135,360 161,559
Total Motor cycles 173,822 146,027 198,097 207,450
Sazgar Three wheeler Ravi(HKF Engineering) Fateh HeroQingqi Triwheeler SohrabSuzuki Yamaha Honda
Brand Wise Share - Motorcycles
78% 6% 4%1%
2%4% 4%1%July - Nov '08
68% 10% 5%1%
‐
5% 5% 4%0%
July - Nov '07
72% 12% 5% 2%
‐
2% 6%July - Nov '06
66% 15% 4% 3%
‐
4% 7%July - Nov '05
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Honda Yamaha Suzuki
Sohrab Triwheeler Qingqi
Fateh Hero Ravi(HKF Engineering) Sazgar Three wheeler
25 000
Brand Wise Sales - Tractors
20,000
25,000
Growth =0%
Growth = 29%
Growth = 4%
15,641
15,646
9,075 15,000
15,016 14,978
7,736 6,545 7,725
10,000
17%15%18%
7,280 8,433 7,916
11,174 5,000
16%41%
6%
-
July - Nov '05 July - Nov '06 July - Nov '07 July - Nov '08
Millat (Massey Ferguson) Fiat (New Holland)
Brand Wise Share - Tractors
55% 45%July - Nov '08
51% 49%July - Nov '07
56% 44%July - Nov '06
48% 52%July - Nov '05
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fiat (New Holland) Millat (Massey Ferguson)