Creating new business models for journalism – the American experience

transcript

Crossover Newsonomics

Ken Doctor

New Industry Analyst & Author,

NewsonomicsBusiness Journalism Day

March 13, 20131Thursday, March 14, 13

Crossover Newsonomics

2Thursday, March 14, 13

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 2013

Our Cast of CharactersThe Age of Crossover

4 Major RealitiesSneak Previews!

The 1, 2, 3, 4 Strategy

Copyright, Content Bridges/Newsonomics, 20134Thursday, March 14, 13

Mark ThompsonAcross Oceans, Media

Robert Thomson

“New”NewsCorp

Warren Buffett BH Media

Aaron Kushner

Orange County Register

Jim Moroney

Legs of

Revenue

Jim Moroney

Legs of

Revenue

Gary Farrugia

The Day

Peter Liguori Tribune

Company

Laura Lang

Time Inc.

Rob Grimshaw

The FT

Alisa Bowen

News Corp

Rolv Ryssdal

Schibsted

Mathias Dopfner

Axel Springer

Al Jazeera:A Growing

News Company

Arianna is Everywhere

Mark Zuckerberg

Life is GOOD

Larry Page’s Google

Dominates Digital

Advertising

The Voice of God

Jon Stewartis the New

Authority

Jon Stewartis the New

Authority

Seeking A New Growth Formula

Are you keeping up with the changes?

In Play

The Great Metro Sell-Off

Boston Globe

Los Angeles Times

Boston Globe

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune

Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune

Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune

Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune

Boston Globe

Hartford Courant

Orlando Sentinel

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Baltimore Sun

Los Angeles Times

Chicago Tribune

San Diego Union-Tribune

Philadelphia Inquirer

Philadelphia Daily News

Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times

Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times

Rocky Mountain News, Seattle P-I

Tampa Tribune

Chicago Sun-Times

BoGlobe$100M, Mid-2013

Tribune Papers$750M, Mid-2013

In the Age of

Crossover

Print Digital (‘90s)

From Mostly Print/A Little

Digital to Mostly Digital/

Some Print

Crossover

From Analog to DigitalFrom Physical to Virtual

CLOSED!Video Stores

CLOSED!Music Stores

CLOSED!Bookstores

CLOSING?“Electronics” Stores

CLOSED!Newspapers

Remember...40Thursday, March 14, 13

Kodak-49%

Newspapers-45%

Sears-31%

Crossover

From Analog to DigitalFrom Physical to Virtual

@54% Worldwide

Smartphones Surpass Dumb Phones in 2013

Ebooks Surpass Print

Kindle owners buy 4X print-only buyers

Ebooks Surpass Print

Digital Music Sales Surpass Physical

Up from Nothing46Thursday, March 14, 13

Digital Ad Spending Surpasses PrintGlobal * U.S.* Brasil *

Australia * Russia

4Major Realities

of 2013

#1Print is Ending:

(Or is It?)

NewsCrossoverStrategies

Advance’s Digital-First,

Print-Last Revolution

Now 3 Days a Week,

Reinforcing Sunday

Now 3 Days a Week,

Reinforcing Sunday

Concerned Reader

New Orleans

MichiganNew Orleans

AlabamaSyracuse

Harrisburg54Thursday, March 14, 13

Next Up?55Thursday, March 14, 13

88%New Orleans’ Print Revenue Retention

1%New Orleans’

Print Sales

Rapid, Digital-First: Three days of print, intended to capture 85% of current print revenue

Rapid Cost Reduction: About 27%

reduction in costs

Profit Improvement: About 11%

Big Question: How Sustainable?

Advance’s Arithmetic

Digital First Media Goes 3 Days a Week

Digital First -- or Only

OC Register Print-First, Reader-First Revolution

Major Content Expansion

Register’s 25 community newspapers now carry 3X more content, and are wholly redesigned into broadsheets

100 NewEditorial

Hires+25 Interns300 Total

+5%Circulation

#2Reader Revenue

Revolution (& Truth About Paywalls)

Digital Circulationis

Biggest Game-Changer

More than 500 Dailies

Worldwide Will Have Paywalls by Mid-2013

Circulation Revenues2005-2011Slipping

Downward68Thursday, March 14, 13

Circulation Revenues

2012-?Upward Slope, if Paywalls in Place

U.S. DailiesCirculation Revenue

$10 Billion

For Top Models

Circulation Revenue Increase Now Matching

+ the Ad Decrease

Charleston Post & Courier

(Last 5 mos, 2012)

Ad revenue down = @2-4%Circ revenue up = 10%

New York Times(2012)

Ad revenue down = 7.5.%Circ revenue up = 8.5%

The Game: Getting to Zero

NYT’s Uniques: 30MNYT’s Print Readers:

The 3% Solution

3% Solution

A small percentage of web uniques form a new business

The Sunday Paper is the New Play

Digital Only: $260Digital + Sunday= $210

Sunday30-40% of total ad

revenue50% of total ad profit

Paywalls2012

WhichReaders?

You Know Them81Thursday, March 14, 13

They Are Loyal

Digital: 83% of Print Price

All Access is the Business Model

...& Uniqueness85Thursday, March 14, 13

“Membership”Replaces

Subscriptions

Membership Arrives

L.A. Times, Boston Globe, The Day, a small daily in Connecticut

The idea: Deepen the relationship to subscribers, especially All-Access

subscribers

Social Group: Country Squires

Born in 1954

Lifestage Group: Accumulated Wealth

HH Income: $100,000+

Zillow Home Value: $455,000

Registered for Sun WinefestDream Giveaway

$780.16 in total ConsumerRevenue since 2008

PRIZM Demographic Pro!le

Reads Grace magazineand Sound & Country

Active Mon-Sun Subscriberon EZ Pay since 2001

Downloaded tickets toEastern CT Symphony throughThe Day Passport rewards programRegistered user on theday.com

Signed up for daily deals

Registered user on theday.comSigned up for breaking news

Born in 1956

Homeownersin Old Lyme, CT

custom Town Page: Old Lyme custom Town Page: Waterford

Two-week vacationeach July since 2003

The Day Member Archetypes“Carol and Michael”

Likely empty nesters

Indexes high forinternational travel 1x per year

Indexes high forhaving an annuity

Membership=Targeting

The Pricing Revolution

$99: Print + Digital$69: Digital Only

$39: 2010 Print Price

The Economist A Pricing

Leader

$160from

Big Upward Trend

The New Dispatch

$360 from

Paywall Trends:Pricing Up

Paywall Trends:Fewer Articles

...And Yet

Paywalls 1.0

Multiplying Pay Middlemen

New Ways to Pay99Thursday, March 14, 13

Bundles PPV

Time Passes

E-Book PushGlobe: At least monthly

Bite-Sized Paid Content

#3It’s a

5- Screen World

& The Tablet is Key

Desktop/LaptopSmartphone

TabletConnected TVConnected Car

Screens in Motion(Multi-Screen World Report)

The Mobile Money

Gap33% - Traffic5% - Revenue

#4Advertising

isMorphing

U.S. Newspaper Ad Revenues

1/2-Sized(in 5+ years)

The Big PictureNewspapers: Down in high single digits

Magazines: DownBroadcast: A little up

Cable: UpDigital: Up most dramatically

It’s AboutTime

& Money

Time Spent / Ad Revenue Mismatch

Digital Global Adspend 2012:

$100Billion

67%: Big 5 Take

80%: Google in Paid Search, 1/2 of all digital ads

Advanced Targeting:Key to success

At $4B+, Facebook Digital Ad Revenue

Exceeds of Daily Newspapers’

Newspapers Are in the Wrong End

of the Market

It’s About Performance

Movement to Sponsorship,

“Share of Voice”

Movement to Video

Movement to Events

Content Marketing

Arrives

Linking Top News Brands

“Brand Connect”Washington Post

Brand ConnectWashington Post

Speakeasy: Connecting Social to Content

Newspapers Find 3rd Leg of Revenue:

Digital Agencies

Media Become

Re-SellersSEMSEO

Site BuildingFacebook

MobileYahoo

Content MarketingGroupon!

The Big Market

27 millionsmall/medium

businesses

Emerging Business Model

Reader RevenueAd Revenue

Marketing ServicesEvents

In-Sourcing Work

Sneak Previews!

And....

Sneak Previews!

And....

Google Glass

Sneak Previews!

Connected Cars

Ford Sync

Sneak Previews!

Connected Cars

Ford Sync

Sneak Previews!

Amazon Same-Day Reshapes

Retail

Sneak Previews!

Amazon Same-Day Reshapes

Retail

Sneak Previews!

Comp-Gen

Sneak Previews!

Comp-Gen

Sneak Previews!

Top 10 Lists

Resume TipsBest Parks

Toddler TipsMayors

+++135Thursday, March 14, 13

Skift: New Travel Site

Sneak Preview

Skift: New Travel Site

Sneak Preview

California’sNew Site

What Does Your Pyramid Look Like?

Professional ContentExpert Content

Community Content Computer-Generated

Content

1, 2, 3, 4is the Emerging

Media Model141Thursday, March 14, 13

The 1, 2, 3, 4Strategy

1 Brand

Unified Brand Message

Media AnywhereMultiplies Potential

Audience

All-Access is

The Media Model

2 Strong Legs of Revenue

Re-Connection

Print Ads & CircDigital Ads & Circ

3 Products

Print Online Mobile

4GVideo is ascendant

1 Brand 2 Legs of Revenue

3 Products 4G

The New Virtuous Circle

Data Asset Management is the

New Base of the Business,

Reconnecting Readers & Commerce

2020: Telling Stories About Daily Newspapers

Contactkdoctor@gmail.com

Twitter: @kdoctor

www.newsonomics.com

Creating new business models for journalism – the American experience

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