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About This ReportThis report is designed to chart out the economic outlook of Thailand on a monthly basis. It is ideal for corporate management, investors as well as anyone interested in the second largest economy in ASEAN.
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DISCLAIMER All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the prior permission of the publisher, ChartingTHAILAND™. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingTHAILAND™ delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such ChartingTHAILAND™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
ASK THE EDITORChartingTHAILAND™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questions and comments about this report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com.
Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, November 2015Publication Date: November 3rd, 2015Number of pages: 72
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
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Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
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• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Real GDP growthThis chart gives the long-term perspective of the historical GDP growth of Thailand. It also gives the latest annual growth during the last four quarters. It shows the real growth, which already excludes the effect from inflation. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.
Historical growth for the Thai economyThe cumulative annual growth rate between 2003-2014 was 3.4%. During the last 10 years, only one year (2009) that registered a negative growth. Growth in 2010 and 2012 were exceptionally high, representing the V-shape recovery from the global sub-prime debt and the country’s flood crisis respectively. Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15.
Slower pace of growth in 2Q15
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rateAnnual growth, percent
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
7.2%
6.3%
4.2%
5.0%5.4%
1.7%
-0.7%
7.5%
0.8%
7.3%
2.8%
0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
2.1%
3.0%2.8%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 6© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Last 5 Quarters
Source of Growth – Production sideChart A shows the real growth rate of value added from each production sector. Chart B shows each sector’s contribution to the overall GDP growth. The contribution from each sector must add up to the overall growth. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.
Most contributing sectors for the Thai economy in 2Q15Chart A says that Hotel & Restaurant have grown most from 2Q14 to 2Q15, while Agriculture dropped the most. Chart B looks at the contributions to total growth from all sectors. Most sectors contributed positively to 2Q15 growth, except Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining.
Service was the main driver in 2Q15, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main drags on the economy
Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 2Q15Year‐on‐Year percentage change
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
18.7
17.3
8.6
8.6
6.3
5.5
5.5
3.7
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.2
1.3
-0.7
-1.6
-3.9
-6.3
Hotel&Res
Construction
Financial
Transport
Other social
Health&Social
Private HH
Trading
GDP
Utilities
RealEstate
Education
PublicAdmin
Manufacture
Fishing
Mining
Agriculture
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 2Q15Contributions to total Real GDP growth
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.5
GDP
Transport
Hotel&Res
Financial
Trading
Construction
RealEstate
Other social
Utilities
Health&Social
Education
PublicAdmin
Private HH
Fishing
Mining
Manufacture
Agriculture
Stat diff7© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Source of Growth – Expenditure sideChart A shows the real growth rate of each expenditure. Chart B shows each expenditure’s contribution to the overall GDP growth. The contribution from each sector must add up to the overall GDP growth. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.
Growth drivers for the Thai economy in 2Q15Chart A shows that Tourism (X of services) grew the most in 2Q15. Chart B shows that it also contributed the most to the overall growth in 2Q15. Decreasing in export of goods was the main drag on the overall growth.
Tourism was by far the main driver of growth in 2Q15
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 2Q15Year‐on‐Year percentage change
25.1
4.6
2.8
2.5
1.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.3
-4.0
X (services)
G
GDP
I (capital)
I
C
M (services)
M (goods)
X (goods)
Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 2Q15Contributions to total Real GDP growth
2.8
3.3
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.1
0.0
-0.2
-2.5
GDP
X (services)
Discrpncy
C
G
I (capital)
M (goods)
M (services)
I (Inventory)
X (goods)
Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services 8© ChartingTHAILAND™
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MPI Beyond TrainingBusiness Simulation and Experiential LearningContact Us:Tel: 02‐168‐7245‐7, 098‐248‐2585www.BeyondTraining.co.thFacebook: MPI Beyond TrainingPat.mpibeyond@gmail.com
Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
10
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)Manufacturing Production Index is a composite index calculated by the Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry. The composite includes all industries and weighted by their value added. The year 2000 is used as the base year and the figure is released monthly.
Latest developmentManufacturing production decreased 3.6% year-on-year in September 2015, continuing to lag behind last year’s level.
Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level
Chart 1.10 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100)
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
152.1161.1
174.6182.9
170.0
194.2
177.6 181.6 175.7167.7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Monthly Average
11© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
MPI by sectorsChart A shows the year-on-year change in Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by sector, that is comparing the MPI for the latest month with the MPI for the same month of the previous year. Chart B shows the month-on-month change in MPI by sector, that is comparing the MPI for the latest month with the MPI for the previous month.
Latest developmentMost sectors had their production decreased from a year ago but most managed to produce more from last month.
Most sectors had their production decreased from a year ago but most managed to produce more from last month
Chart 1.11a – Y‐on‐Y change in MPI by sectorSeptember 2015, percent
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
10.68.3
5.21.9
0.50.40.3
-1.1-1.2-1.7
-3.7-4.6
-5.5-7.3-7.9-8.1-8.4
-10.7-11.7
-18.2-21.4
PetroleumTobaccoVehicles
MachineriesTransport EquipMetal products
PaperPrecision instru
ChemicalFurniture
Rubber&PlasticFood & Bev
MineralTextiles
Wood productsElectrical
Office automateElectronicLeather
Basic MatApparel
Chart 1.11b – M‐on‐M change in MPI by sectorSeptember 2015, percent
15.511.811.5
10.59.99.5
7.46.76.56.2
1.80.8
-1.5-1.6-1.8-1.9-2.3
-3.4-4.7
-6.2-12.8
TobaccoTransport Equip
MachineriesElectronic
Office automateMetal products
VehiclesFurniture
Precision instruWood products
TextilesLeather
Rubber&PlasticElectricalBasic MatMineral
Food & BevPetroleum
PaperChemicalApparel
12© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Capacity Utilization rateCapacity utilization rate is a composite index of the capacity utilization rate of all major industries. The index is prepared by the Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry and released monthly. Chart A shows the composite Capacity Utilization rate in the last 6 months. Chart B shows the Capacity Utilization rate of the last month by industries.
Latest developmentSeasonally adjusted Capacity utilization rate has decreased to 58.3% in September. Rubber and Plastic has the highest utilization rate at 89% while Tobacco has the lowest at 30%.
Lower capacity utilization rate (seasonally adjusted) in September
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
Chart 1.12a – Overall Capacity Utilization RatePercent
Chart 1.12b – Capacity utilization rate by sectorSeptember 2015, percent
89%84%
81%80%
76%71%
68%66%66%
60%59%59%
51%50%
47%43%
41%40%39%
30%30%
Rubber&PlasticTextiles
Wood productsElectronicElectricalFurniture
Metal productsBasic MatLeather
Office automateFood & Bev
Precision instruMineral
ChemicalTransport Equip
VehiclesPaper
MachineriesPetroleum
ApparelTobacco
13© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Normal
Seasonally adjusted
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Change in MPI in the worldYear-on-year change in Manufacturing Production Index from the latest period across major economies. The chart shows the current state of manufacturing production in the world. The figures are compiled by The Economist magazine.
Latest development7 out of 18 major economies had negative MPI growth during the last period reported. Thailand’s negative growth of -3.6% was the forth lowest on the list.
Thailand’s latest MPI change was among the lowest on the list
Chart 1.13 – Manufacturing Production IndexLatest, percent change on year ago
Source: The Economist
8.8
6.4
5.7
4.8
4.4
3.7
3.0
2.4
1.2
0.9
0.4
-0.9
-1.2
-3.5
-3.6
-4.8
-5.3
-8.9
Vietnam ‐ Oct
India ‐ Aug
China ‐ Sep
Pakistan ‐ Aug
Indonesia ‐ Aug
Philippines ‐ Aug
Malaysia ‐ Aug
South Korea ‐ Sep
Australia ‐ Q2
Euro Area ‐ Aug
US ‐ Sep
Japan ‐ Sep
Hong Kong ‐ Q2
Russia ‐ Sep
Thailand ‐ Sep
Singapore ‐ Sep
Taiwan ‐ Sep
Brazil ‐ Aug14© ChartingTHAILAND™
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15
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ซึง่จะชว่ยใหค้ณุอ่านรายงานของเราไดส้ะดวกยิง่ขึน้
http://goo.gl/g1oOka
RecommendedVideo
Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
16
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Composite Private Consumption IndexA composite index representing private consumption conditions. It comprises of 5 components including Non-durables Index, Semi-durables Index, Durables Index, Services Index, and Non-residents expenditure Index. Prepared by the Bank of Thailand using 2010 as the base year and is released monthly and each component was seasonally adjusted. Chart A shows the Composite Index movement over the latest 2 years. Chart B shows the annual change of each component.
Latest developmentPrivate consumption improved sharply and surpassed last year’s level in September. However, durables and semi-durables goods consumption are still lagging.
Private consumption improved sharply and surpassed last year’s level in September
Chart 1.14a – Composite Private Consumption Index (2010=100)
Source: Bank of Thailand17© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.com
13.4
4.8
2.2
0.4
-1.3
-8.7
Non‐resident
Services
Non‐durables
Composite Index
Semi‐durables
Durables
Chart 1.14b – Y‐on‐Y changeSep 2015 vs 2014, percent
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Composite Private Investment IndexA composite index representing private investment conditions. It is constructed from 5 components including Construction Area Permitted in Municipal Zone (9-month moving average), Construction Material Sales Index (3-month moving average), Imports of Capital Goods at 2010 Prices, Domestic Machinery Sales at 2010 Prices, Domestic Car Sales Index for investment (3-month moving average.). The index is prepared by the Bank of Thailand, using 2010 as the base year. Chart A shows the Composite Index movement over the latest 2 years. Chart B shows the annual change of each component.
Latest developmentPrivate Investment started to pick up and has been above last year’s level. Domestic Machinery Sales increased the most from a year ago in September.
Private Investment started to pick up and has been above last year’s level
Chart 1.15a – Private Investment Index (2010=100)
Source: Bank of Thailand18
Chart 1.15b – Y‐on‐Y changeSep 2015 vs 2014, percent
11.7
1.1
0.1
-2.7
-3.4
-6.0
Domestic Machinery sales*(2010 prices, Baht)
Composite Index
Import of Capital Goods(2010 prices, Baht)
Construction Material SalesIndex
Construction Areapermitted (sqm)
Domestic Commercial CarSales Index
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
113.0
114.0
115.0
116.0
117.0
118.0
119.0
120.0
121.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
20142015
Note: (*) figures are 1‐month delayedCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign direct investment (FDI) reflects the lasting interests of Non-residents of an economy in a resident entity. A direct investor may invest in equity capital, lending to affiliates, or reinvested earnings. Investment in equity is treated as a direct investment when the direct investors own 10 per cent or more of the voting shares for an enterprise or the equivalent for an unincorporated enterprise. Data is compiled by BOT. The left chart shows the annual figures. The right chart shows the cumulative monthly figures for the current year and the year before.
Latest developmentFDI value increased 28% in the first 8 months of 2015.
FDI value increased 28% in the first 8 months of 2015
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct InvestmentMillion USD
Source: BOT
8,562
6,411
14,747
2,474
12,899
15,936
3,720
08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Monthly cumulative FDI*
(*) Preliminary figures
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
19© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
BOI net applicationValue is derived from total investment of all projects which have foreign equity participation (shown by registered capital amount) of one particular nation or the sum of all foreign registered capital from more than two nations of at least 10%. The chart shows the value of BOI net application for projects defined as FDI.
Latest developmentBOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014, but for the first 8 months of 2015, it has almost been wiped out, registering only THB 50 billion.
BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014, but for the first 8 months of 2015, it has almost been wiped out
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment*Billion Baht
Source: Board of Investment
236
396
648
525
1,023
288
50
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2014/8M 2015/8M
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)20© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
BOI net application by countryBOI net application of foreign direct investment projects breakdown by country. FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014.
FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country groupPercent of total
Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
49%58% 54%
29%20%
7%
10%7%
17%
5%
8%
7%10%
10%
30%
7%
10%6%
7%13%
2%
4%
2%
13%13%
27%
11%21% 25%
19%
11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 2015/8M
Europe
Japan
ASEAN ANIEs USA
Others
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)(**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea 21© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Key property indicatorsChart A compares key property indicators during this year to the current month to those in the same period of the previous year. Chart B compares key property indicators in the current month to those of the previous month.
Latest developmentBig surge in Condominium registration in August while the value of land transaction and construction area has decreased from last year in the first 8 months.
Big surge in Condominium registration in August
Chart 1.16a – Y‐on‐Y changeFirst 8 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
31.8
1.3
-4.7
-6.1
Condo unit registered
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
Value of land transaction
Chart 1.16b – M‐on‐M changeAug vs Jul 2015, percent
107.4
-1.8
-8.1
4.6
22© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
23
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Trade balanceForeign trade statistics refer to transactions involving movements of goods out of or into the Kingdom of Thailand over a specific time period. It is not equal to the one shown on the Balance of Payment chart due to a few adjustments. The charts show the breakdown of Trade Balance into Export and Import.
Latest developmentImproved trade balance in both THB and USD terms in the first 9 months of 2015. This is the case of import declining more than export.
Improved trade balance so far in 2015 is the case of import declining more than export
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THBFirst 9 months, Billion Baht
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments(**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
(***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Export Import Tradebalance
2014
2015
– = -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Export Import Trade balance– =
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USDFirst 9 months, Billion USD
-7.6% -5.0% -10.5%
24© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
-1.9%
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
YTD change in Export by productThe left chart shows the year-to-date change in Baht term of export value by product group. The right chart shows each group’s contribution to the total export growth.
Latest developmentExport, in THB, recovered in September but the first 9 months is still lower than the same period last year. The increase in Automotive and Machinery export were the growth drivers while Petroleum, Chemicals and Agriculture were the main drags to total export growth.
Export recovered in September but the first 9 months is still lower than the same period last year
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in BahtFirst 9 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-1.928.5
25.56.36.2
3.52.31.91.70.5
-0.3-1.5-2.3-4.0-5.0-6.2-6.5-7.8-8.0
-14.3-17.6
-23.0-24.5-25.0
-49.4
Total exportOptical instruOther export
JewelleryAutomotiveMachinery
Other manufacturingPhoto instru
ElectricalElectronics
MetalForestry
Agro productsToiletriesApparelsFootware
AgriculturePetro‐chemical
FurnitureFishery
AircraftsChemicalsPetroleumRe‐exports
Mining
Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributionsContributions to total export growth
-1.90.9
0.40.30.3
0.20.10.10.10.0
0.00.00.00.00.00.0
-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3
-0.5-0.5
-0.9-1.2
Total exportAutomotiveOther exportMachinery
Optical instruJewelleryElectrical
Other manufacturingElectronics
Photo instruForestryMetal
FootwareRe‐exportsFurnitureToiletriesFishery
ApparelsAircraftsMining
Agro productsPetro‐chemical
AgricultureChemicalsPetroleum
25© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Export destinationsThe left chart shows Export value (in Baht term) broken down by country of destination. The right chart shows change in export value to each destination.
Latest developmentNAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai export in the first 9 months of 2015. Middle East was the hardest hit market with export declining 9.8% from a year ago.
NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai export so far in 2015
Chart 5.07a – Export by countryPercent of total export in THB term
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
23.0 24.3 24.6 25.9 26.1
20.4 21.0 21.0 21.2 20.3
11.7 11.1 11.4 11.5 12.0
11.3 10.9 9.5 9.8 10.3
10.5 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.65.0 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.2
18.1 17.4 18.1 16.7 16.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
ASEAN
NAFTA
East Asiaex‐Japan
EU
Japan
Middle East
Rest of the world
100% = (Trillion)8.3%
-0.8%
-3.0%
-3.3%
-3.4%
-4.1%
-9.8%
NAFTA
Rest of the world
EU
East Asia ex Japan
ASEAN
Japan
Middle East
Chart 5.07b – Change in ExportIn THB term, First 9 months of 2015 vs those of 2014
฿ 6.1 ฿ 6.7 ฿ 7.1 ฿ 6.9 ฿ 7.3
26© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
YTD change in Import by product classThe left chart shows the year-to-date change (in Baht term) of import value by product group. The right chart shows each group’s contribution to the total import growth.
Latest developmentImport has decreased 7.6% in the first 9 months of 2015, due mainly to the decrease in Fuel import.
Big decrease in Import so far in 2015 due mainly to decrease in fuel import
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in BahtFirst 9 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributionsContributions to total import growth
-7.6
6.3
-0.3
-0.4
-2.2
-34.5
Total import
Consumer goods
Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
Others
Capital goods
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
-7.6
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-7.5
Total import
Consumer goods
Others
Intermediate ‐ Non fuel
Capital goods
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
27© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Import compositionImport value (in Baht term) breakdown by economic classification into Consumer goods, Intermediate goods, Capital goods and Others.
Latest developmentMost categories have gained more share this year at the expense of Fuel.
Most categories have gained more share this year at the expense of Fuel
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificationPercent of total import in Baht term
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
7.5 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.7 9.7
17.4 18.9 18.9 20.8 20.8 15.4
44.0 40.0 37.5 35.7 38.340.8
20.9 21.3 24.4 23.324.2 25.5
10.2 12.4 11.4 12.2 8.1 8.5
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9MO
Others
Capital goods
Consumer goods
100% = (Trillion)฿ 5.9 ฿ 7.0
Intermediate ‐ Fuel
Intermediate –Non‐Fuel
฿ 7.8 ฿ 7.4฿ 7.7
28© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
฿ 5.2
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Tourist arrivalsNumber of the international tourist arrivals into Thailand. Prepared by Department of Tourism using data from Immigration Bureau, Police Department.
Latest developmentTourist arrivals dropped significantly after the Bangkok bomb incident. For the first 9 months, Tourist arrivals still grew impressively at 27.2%.
10.011.7 11.5
14.5 14.115.9
19.2
22.4
26.524.8
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Tourist arrivals dropped significantly after the Bangkok bomb incident
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist ArrivalsMillion visits
Source: Department of Tourism
Monthly arrivalsMillion visits
CAGR10.6%
29© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Tourist arrivals by nationalityChart A shows the composition of international tourist arrivals by their nationalities grouped by region. Chart B shows the top 10 highest change in arrivals by country and the percent of total arrival change.
Latest developmentStructure of tourist nationalities has changed a bit over the years. East Asia has been the largest group in the last six years and the figure is increasing every year. China and Malaysia have been the two highest growing markets for tourists in 2015.
China and Malaysia have been the two highest growing markets for tourists in 2015
Chart 5.19aInternational Tourist Arrivals by country of nationalityPercent of total
Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
51.2 53.8 56.0 59.9 58.8
27.9 26.5 25.323.8 24.8
5.3 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.515.6 14.7 13.8 11.9 11.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
East Asia
Europe
Americas
Rest of world
Chart 5.19b10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationalityFirst 9 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, Thousands
2,917.3
885.8
191.4
177.8
163.6
149.9
128.2
118.1
112.9
69.6
China
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
Vietnam
Japan
India
Singapore
USA
30© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
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31
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Unemployment rateUnemployment rate calculated from labor Force Survey conducted and compiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Unemployment rate equals unemployed persons divided by total labor force. Unemployed persons is defined as persons with the age of 15 years and over who during the week in which the survey is conducted, do not work, have no job, business enterprise or farm of their own. Persons in this category include those who are looking for a job, applying for a job or waiting to be called to work during the past 30 days prior to the interview date and those who are not looking for work during the past 30 days prior to the interview date, but are otherwise available for work during the 7 days prior to the interview date. Total labor force comprises current labor force and seasonally inactive labor force.
Latest developmentUnemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September.
Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September
Chart 2.08 – Unemployment ratePercent
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
1.83
1.51
1.38 1.381.49
1.04
0.68 0.660.72
0.84
05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Monthly Average
2014
2015
32© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Unemployment rates in the worldA comparison of unemployment rates across different countries (economies) compiled by The Economist magazine.
Latest developmentThailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest among leading economies. Euro area still has the highest unemployment rate, followed by Brazil.
Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comparing to other leading economies
Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rateLatest, percent
Source: The Economist
0.8
2.0
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.8
4.1
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.5
7.6
10.8
Thailand ‐ Sep
Singapore ‐ Q3
Malaysia ‐ Aug
South Korea ‐ Sep
Hong Kong ‐ Sep
Japan ‐ Sep
Vietnam ‐ 2014
Taiwan ‐ Sep
China ‐ Q3
India ‐ 2013
US ‐ Sep
Russia ‐ Sep
Indonesia ‐ Q1
Pakistan ‐ 2014
Australia ‐ Sep
Philippines ‐ Q3
Brazil ‐ Sep
Euro Area ‐ Sep33© ChartingTHAILAND™
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34
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Interest ratesChart A shows the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate (1-day repo rate) over the last 12 months. Chart B shows the Inter bank overnight rate over the last 12 months. Chart C shows the minimum and maximum of the saving deposit rate over the last 12 months. Chart D shows the minimum and maximum of commercial bank’s MLR over the last 12 months.
Latest developmentNo change in policy interest rate in October. It’s worth noting that the BOT’s policy rate is at 1.50%, which is quite low. This could limit the option to further stimulate growth through monetary policy (by lowering interest rate further).
No change in policy interest rate in October
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Source: Bank of Thailand
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR*
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches 35© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Nov-14 Oct-15
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Nov-14 Oct-150.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
10.00%
Nov-14 Oct-15
Max
Min
Min
Max
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
Nov-14 Oct-15
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Government SpendingThe current government is trying to boost the economy by fiscal spending. In the first 8 months of 2015, government spending increased 9% from the same period last year. While the effectiveness of such program is still in doubt, we see bigger spending from the government in the calendar year of 2015.
Government spending in the first 9 months of 2015 increased 9%
36Source: Bank of Thailand
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditureBillion Baht
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
D J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
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37
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Business and Thai Industries Sentiment IndicesChart A shows Business Sentiment Index has been compiled with BOT survey data of 1,500 businesses. Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable. Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved. Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened. Chart B shows Thai Industries Sentiment Index, from The Federation of Thai Industries survey of more than 1,000 industrial enterprises. Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable. Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved. Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened.
Latest developmentBusinesses and Industries were still pessimistic in September. Business Sentiment Index improved bust was still below the cutoff level. TISI dropped and remained lower than the cutoff.
Businesses and Industries were still pessimistic in September
Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Chart 1.18a – Business Sentiment Index*
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stableIndex > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improvedIndex < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened
Chart 1.18b – Thai Industries Sentiment Index**
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index:Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stableIndex > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improvedIndex < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
38© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
45.250.3 49.1
46.4 46.4 47.3
0
50
100
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Better
Worse
86.2 85.4 84.0 83.0 82.4 82.8
0
100
200
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Better
Worse
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Consumer Confidence IndexPrepared by Ministry of Commerce through monthly consumer survey nationwide. The index ranges from 0 to 100. 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month. Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month. Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month.
Latest developmentConsumers were less pessimistic in September as the overall index increased from 34.6 to 35.4. As the index is still below the cut off level, consumers are still pessimistic about the economy.
Consumers were less pessimistic in September
Source: Ministry of Commerce
Chart 1.17 – Consumer Confidence Index
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 10050 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior monthOver 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior monthUnder 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month 39© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.com
0
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-150
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-150
50
100
Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15
Overall On job
Better
Worse
On future income
Better
Worse
Better
Worse
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
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40
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Real GDP growth projectionsReal GDP growth projections from Bank of Thailand, National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the weekly poll conducted by the Economist magazine. The charts also show growth projections as of past dates, which highlight any significant change in projections from each of the forecasters. The changes in projections normally reflect the economic outlook as seen by each forecaster.
Growth projections for the Thai economyFPO revised down 2015 growth again in October. Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7-3.4% for 2015 and 3.7-4.0% for 2016.
FPO revised down 2015 growth again in October
Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projectionsFor 2015, Annual percentage change
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist
Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projectionsFor 2016, Annual percentage change
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.41© ChartingTHAILAND™
www.ChartingThailand.com
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15
Forecast as of, month ending
BOT
FPOThe Economist
poll
NESDB
Forecast as of, month ending
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15
BOT
The Economist poll
FPO
International real GDP growth projectionsReal GDP growth projection consensus for major economies in the world as a result of a weekly survey by the Economist magazine. It offers a good comparison across economies in the world.
Growth outlook for the Thai economyAccording to the Economist poll, Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to be 3.4% for 2015 and 4.0% for 2016, around the middle when compared to other major and emerging economies.
Growth for Thailand is projected to be around the middle of the pack
Chart 1.04a – Real GDP growth projections2015, Annual % change, as of Oct 31st 2015
Source: The Economist
Chart 1.04b – Real GDP growth projections2016, Annual % change, as of Oct 31st 2015
7.46.8
6.46.3
5.75.4
4.83.4
3.22.9
2.52.42.42.3
1.50.7
-2.7-3.8
IndiaChina
PhilippinesVietnamPakistanMalaysiaIndonesiaThailandTaiwan
SingaporeUS
South KoreaHong KongAustraliaEuro Area
JapanBrazilRussia
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
7.76.56.5
6.36.1
5.14.7
4.03.0
2.82.62.62.6
2.11.7
1.2-0.3
-0.9
IndiaChina
VietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaIndonesiaPakistanThailand
SingaporeSouth Korea
TaiwanAustralia
USHong KongEuro Area
JapanRussiaBrazil
42© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
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43
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Consumer Price IndexCPI is the general price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce. Available in various definitions and by product groups. Change in CPI is normally used as main indicator for inflation.
Latest developmentHeadline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI of most products actually increased from a year ago.
Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 3.07a – Y‐o‐Y change in CPIPercent
Chart 3.07b – Y‐o‐Y change in CPI by productOct 2015, percent
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
9.0
2.1
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-6.5
-15.5
Veg & fruit
Tobacco & alcohol
Food away from home
Recreation & Education
Prepared food at home
Medical care
Non alcoholic beverage
Apparel and footware
Meat
Housing & furnishing
Rice
Seasoning
Eggs & milk
Transport & Commu
Energy
44© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Head line
Core*
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Inflation in the worldChange in Consumer Price Index across major economies in the world. Also the projected CPI change for the full year by the Economist poll.
Latest developmentAlong with Singapore, Thailand’s latest CPI is still lower than a year ago.
Along with Singapore, Thailand’s latest CPI is still lower than a year ago
Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price IndexAnnual percentage change
Source: The Economist
Latest 2015*
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
15.2
8.9
6.4
5.1
2.5
3.1
1.6
3.9
1.7
0.8
2.4
0.7
0.3
2.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.8
15.7
9.5
6.8
4.4
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.6
-0.8
Russia ‐ Sep
Brazil ‐ Sep
Indonesia ‐ Sep
India ‐ Sep
Malaysia ‐ Sep
Hong Kong ‐ Sep
China ‐ Sep
Pakistan ‐ Sep
Australia ‐ Q3
South Korea ‐ Sep
Philippines ‐ Sep
Japan ‐ Sep
US ‐ Sep
Vietnam ‐ Oct
Euro Area ‐ Oct
Taiwan ‐ Sep
Singapore ‐ Sep
Thailand ‐ Oct
45© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Producer Price IndexInflation at the producer level is measured by a change in Producer Price Index. Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce. The chart shows the changes of the overall PPI and also the PPI of each industry.
Latest developmentPPI continues to be lower than a year ago, due largely to energy price. However, PPI of other products, almost half, also decreased from a year ago.
PPI continues to be lower than a year ago, due largely to energy price
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 3.09a – Y‐o‐Y change in PPIPercent
Chart 3.09b – Y‐o‐Y change in PPI by productOct 2015, percent
3.9
3.1
2.2
2.2
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-1.3
-2.1
-2.9
-2.9
-4.2
-4.9
-11.0
-26.5
Other manu goodsPulp & paper
EnergyCrop
TextileLeather & footware
WoodMechineryForestryForestry
Non‐metallic mineralFoodMetal
Electrical equipLivestocks
Rubber & plasticChemical
Basic metalsFishing
Petroleum products
46© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
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47
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Bank’s Loan and Loan-to-deposit ratioCommercial banks take deposits and give out loans. Chart A shows the outstanding loan by commercial banks in Thailand. Chart B shows the commercial banks’ loan to deposit ratio, a liquidity indicators in the banking system.
Latest developmentBank’s loan increased only 0.3% in August 2015. Liquidity in the system was squeezed further as the Loan-to-Deposit ratio increased to 97.3%.
Bank’s loan is still growing and liquidity is slightly squeezed
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratioPercent
Source: Bank of Thailand
Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ LoanTHB billion
48© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
97.2%96.4%
95.7% 95.7%94.9% 94.8% 94.5% 94.5%
95.4%96.5%
97.1% 97.3%
90%
95%
100%
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
10,600
10,800
11,000
11,200
11,400
11,600
Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15
Y-o-Y+4.8%
M-o-M+0.3%
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Non-performing loanGross NPLs: the outstanding amount of loans classified as substandard, doubtful, doubtful of loss, and loss. The chart shows Gross Non-performing loan from all Financial Institutions in Thailand, both in the absolute and percentage of total terms.
Latest developmentGross NPL continued to rise in 3Q15. The absolute value increased from THB 312 billion to THB 361 billion or 2.38% to 2.79% of the total loan.
Gross NPL continued to rise in both absolute value and percentage of total loan in the 3Q15
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs OutstandingBillion Baht
Source: Bank of Thailand
458 401 380 317 270 256 267 278 299 312 361
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
7.31%
5.29% 4.85%3.60%
2.75% 2.26% 2.16% 2.16% 2.29% 2.38% 2.79%
07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs OutstandingPercentage of Total Loans
49© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Capital ratio of all commercial banksCapital funds of commercial banks mean stockholders’ equity. Risk assets mean summary of all risk-weighted assets including contingent liabilities converted into assets and weighted by risk ratio. The higher the ratio the safer and more stability in the banking system.
Latest developmentBanks’ capital ratio increased to 17.2% in August and still remained high.
Banks’ capital ratio increased in July and still remained high
Source: Bank of Thailand
Chart 3.04 – Capital ratio of all commercial banks*% of risk assets, at year end
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches
12.4%13.3%
13.9%14.9%
14.0%
15.8% 16.1%
14.8%
16.2%15.7%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201314.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month End
2014
2015
50© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Real interest rates in the worldChart shows one way to calculate real interest rates across different currencies and economies in the world. Today’s Real interest rates = Nominal interest rates (represented here by 3-month risk free interest rates) – expected inflation.
Latest developmentThere are quite a few countries with negative real interest rates. Countries with negative real interest rates seems to have low nominal interest rates to begin with. Thailand’s real interest rate is around 1%.
Thailand’s real interest rate is around 1%
Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Oct 30th 2015
Source: The Economist
3M risk‐free interest rates Expected 2015 inflation* Real interest rates─ =
Note: (*) Applying 10-year bond for Singapore due to lack of 3-month interest rate data 51© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
14.4
12.4
8.3
7.1
6.5
4.7
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.3
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.1
Brazil
Russia
Indonesia
India
Pakistan
Vietnam
Malaysia
China
Singapore*
Australia
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
Hong Kong
US
Japan
Euro Area
5.5
-2.8
1.9
2.0
2.6
2.2
1.3
1.4
2.3
0.6
-0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
-2.7
0.0
-0.6
-0.2
8.9
15.2
6.4
5.1
3.9
2.5
2.5
1.6
0.2
1.7
2.4
0.8
0.8
0.1
3.1
0.3
0.7
0.1
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Stock market performanceChart A shows the monthly performance of the SET index. Chart B shows the performance, change in the index level, of key stock markets in the world, since the end of last year.
Latest developmentSET index increased 3.4% in October when the foreign sell out seemed to stop. Along with other emerging markets, SET has declined year-to-date.
SET index gained 3.4% in October when foreign sell out seemed to stop
Chart 3.06c – Change since Dec 31st 2014Percent, as of Oct 28th 2015
Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
22.0%
14.5%
10.5%
9.8%
8.3%
7.6%
6.6%
6.0%
4.3%
1.5%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-1.7%
-2.0%
-2.7%
-4.2%
-5.9%
-6.9%
-9.6%
-11.8%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
France (CAC 40)
Germany (DAX)
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
Japan (Nikkei 225)
US (NAScomp)
S Korea (KOSPI)
Pakistan (KSE)
China (SSEA)
US (S&P 500)
US (DJIA)
Australia (All Ord.)
India (BSE)
UK (FTSE 100)
HK (Hang Seng)
Malaysia (KLSE)
Thailand (SET)
Taiwan (TWI)
Singapore (STI)
Indonesia (JSX)
Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET indexPercent change from prior month, at month end
-2.0%
0.6%
-4.3% -4.0%
-2.4%
3.4%
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flowSET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end
52© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15 J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
54
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Budget balance vs GDPOverall Cash balances are the sum of budget and non budget cash balances. Budget cash balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. Non budget cash balances include changes in governmental agencies’ deposit accounts and net positions of government’s revolving funds. The chart shows both Overall Cash balances and Budget cash balances as percentage of nominal GDP.
Latest developmentGovernment budget and cash balances have been in deficit in 7 of the last 10 years. The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years have been huge. The worst deficits in relative to GDP were in 2009 (calendar year), with budget deficit of 4%. Huge government budget deficit in 2012, only slightly better than in 2009. Higher budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2014.
Higher government deficit as percentage of GDP in 2014
Chart 4.1 – Government budget and cash balance as percentage of nominal GDPPercent
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-0.5%
1.3%
-1.9%
-1.0%
-3.8%
-0.7%-0.2%
-3.4%
-2.1% -2.2%
-0.6%
1.0%
-1.6%
-1.0%
-4.2%
-2.5%
-0.8%
-3.8%
-1.9%-2.3%
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Budget cash balanceOverall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)
55© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Budget balanceBudget balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. The left chart shows government revenue, government expenditure and budget balance (line). The right chart shows monthly cumulative of budget balance of the last two years.
Latest developmentGovernment budget balances have been in deficit in 9 of the last 10 years. The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years have been huge. The worst deficits in absolute term were in 2012 (calendar year), with budget deficit of 414 Billion Baht. In 2014, Budget deficit increased from 2013. Budget deficit in the first 9 months of 2015 is almost THB 20 billion worse off than the same period last year.
Budget deficit in the first 9 months of 2015 is almost THB 20 billion worse off than the same period last year
Chart 4.2 – Government budget balanceBillion Baht
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
1,2411,390 1,455 1,498 1,484
1,7511,902
2,075 2,158 2,076
-1,277 -1,280
-1,629 -1,598-1,849 -1,825 -1,930
-2,489 -2,424 -2,371
-36110
-174 -100-364
-75 -27
-414-267 -295
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY
Revenue
Expenditure
Budgetbalance
Monthly cumulative Budget balance(Billion Baht)
56© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2014
2015
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Budget and Cash balanceOverall Cash balances are the sum of budget and non budget cash balances. Budget cash balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. Non budget cash balances include changes in governmental agencies’ deposit accounts and net positions of government’s revolving funds. The chart shows both Overall Cash balances and Budget cash balances in absolute term.
Latest development2012 saw the biggest budget and cash deficit in THB term. Apart from 2010, Budget cash balance and Overall cash balance are typically in line with each other. Budget and cash deficits in the first 9 months were in line .
Budget and cash deficits in the first 9 months were in line
Chart 4.3 – Government cash balanceBillion Baht
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
-36
110
-174
-100
-364
-75
-27
-414
-267-295
-21-45
88
-144
-96
-401
-266
-95
-466
-242
-305
-20
05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY '15/9mo
Budget cash balanceOverall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)
57© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Budget balance in the worldConsensus projection of Government budget balance as percentage of GDP across major countries in the world for the current year. The data is compiled by the Economist poll.
Latest developmentMost governments in the world are expected to have budget deficits in 2013, except South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Russia. The magnitude of the expected budget deficits are greatest in US and Japan, the leading economies in the world. Thailand budget deficit is expected to be around 2% of GDP.
Thailand’s budget deficit is expected to be around 2% of GDP
Chart 4.4 – Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP2015*, percent
Source: The Economist
0.3
0.0
-0.7
-1.0
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-3.8
-4.0
-4.2
-5.1
-6.0
-6.8
South KoreaHong KongSingapore
TaiwanPhilippinesIndonesiaThailand
Euro AreaAustralia
USChinaRussiaIndia
MalaysiaVietnamPakistan
BrazilJapan
Note: (*) The Economist Poll 58© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Composition of Public debtPublic debt includes direct government debt, Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss, Debt Prefunding, Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt, Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt, and others. Chart A shows the level of debt in THB. Chart B shows the level as percentage of nominal GDP.
Latest developmentPublic debt as percentage of GDP increased significantly since 2009 then dropped slightly in 2011 before increasing again. Public debt increased in absolute term and relative to GDP in 2012 and 2013, due largely to direct government debt. A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2015, at THB 5.7 trillion, or 43% of GDP. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.
A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2015
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt THB Trillion
Chart 4.5b – Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%External debtas percent of total
59© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug-150%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2011 2012 2013 2014 Aug-15
Direct Government debtDirect Government debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
Public debt from State Enterprises
Public debt from State Enterprises
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Public debt in the worldPublic debt as percentage of nominal GDP, data is compiled by CIA.
Latest developmentHigh public debt ratio in most developed countries. Thailand’s public debt ratio, at 49% of GDP in 2014, is below international rule of thumb of 60%. Japan has the highest public debt level compared to GDP, at 228%. Majority of countries with high public debt level comes from Europe, leading by Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.
Thailand’s public debt is not high compared to international standard
Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the worldPercentage of GDP, 2014 est.
Source: CIA fact book
228181
175142
134132131
119119
110107
1021011019896949494939290898786
1 Japan2 Zimbabwe
3 Greece4 Lebanon
5 Italy6 Jamaica7 Portugal8 Cyprus9 Ireland
10 Grenada11 Singapore12 Belgium13 Eritrea
14 Barbados15 Spain
16 France17 Iceland18 Egypt
19 Puerto rico20 Canada21 Bhutan22 Jordan
23 Antigua and barbuda24 UK
25 Cabo verde
7170676564
59545149484646
4140383737373030242213122
39 United states40 Croatia43 Israel
48 Uruguay50 Pakistan
56 Brazil63 Malaysia
67 India71 Thailand
72 Philippines78 Laos
80 Vietnam93 Mexico96 Sweden
101 Argentina103 South Korea105 Hong kong
108 Turkey126 Nepal
129 Norway133 Indonesia
137 China147 Russia149 Nigeria
164 Saudi arabia
Int’l rule of thumb<60% of GDP
60© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Reading This ReportThis report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.
62
• Thailand GDP grew only 2.8% in 2Q15, a rather slow pace compared to last quarter• Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the expenditure side• Service was the main driver, while agriculture and manufacturing were the main
drags• Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’s level• Private consumption and Private Investment recovered• Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affected by the Bangkok bomb.• Unemployment rate decreased and stayed below 1% in September• Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost growth• Businesses, Industries as well as Consumers were less pessimistic in September• Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7‐3.4% for 2015 and 3.7‐4.0% for 2016.
• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI for most products actually increased over the past 12 months.
• Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is slightly squeezed. Bank’s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase.
• Budget deficit worsened in the first 9 months. Public debt also increased but not too worrying yet.
• Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus. External debt has been decreasing. THB was stable in October.
CONTENT SUMMARY
Grow
thS
tability
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
Balance of payment decompositionBalance of Payments is a summary of economic transactions between residents and nonresidents that takes place during a specific time period. Balance of Payments include Trade balance, Net services income & transfers, Capital and financial account and Net errors & omissions.
Latest developmentPositive Balance of Payment so far in 2015 of USD 4.4 billion, thanks to trade surplus.
Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade surplus
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 5.01 – Balance of Payment decompositionBillion USD
Trade Balance (F.O.B)
Net service income & transfer
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions
+
63© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
31.3
1.25.3
-5.0-1.2
4.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
29.8
17.0
6.7 6.7
24.6 24.9
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
-19.7
-8.1 -8.2-11.8 -9.2
-4.0
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
21.3
-7.7
6.8 0.1
-16.6 -16.0
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/9mo
Copyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
Current Account BalanceCurrent Account represents the net sum of trade in goods and services, primary income and secondary income. The left chart shows the consensus projection of 2012 Current Account Balance as percentage of GDP by the Economist poll. The right chart shows last 12-month Current Account Balance of major economies in the world, in absolute dollar term
Latest developmentCountries that are expected to have huge Current Account surplus are mostly from Emerging Asian economies. US is still expected to be net spenders. Thailand’s Current Account balance in 2015 is expected to be 2.4% of GDP.
Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge current account surplus
Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance
Source: The Economist
21.2%
12.8%
6.7%
4.9%
4.1%
3.1%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-2.5%
-2.5%
-3.7%
-4.2%
Singapore ‐ Q2
Taiwan ‐ Q2
South Korea ‐ Aug
Russia ‐ Q3
Philippines ‐ Jun
China ‐ Q2
Hong Kong ‐ Q2
Japan ‐ Aug
Euro Area ‐ Aug
Vietnam ‐ 2014
Malaysia ‐ Q2
Thailand ‐ Q2
Pakistan ‐ Q2
India ‐ Q2
Indonesia ‐ Q2
US ‐ Q2
Australia ‐ Q2
Brazil ‐ Sep
69.5
72.8
104.8
64.3
11.7
287.8
7.4
118.8
353.4
9.1
8.8
24.4
-2.6
-25.9
-21.6
-429.0
-47.4
-79.3
Last 12 months, USD BillionAs % of 2015 GDP*
Note: (*) The Economist Poll 64© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
External DebtExternal debt refers to the remaining outstanding portion of liabilities (excluding equity) which residents have over nonresidents of an economy. Prepared by the Bank of Thailand and released quarterly. Chart A shows external debt level in USD term. Chart B shows external debt level as percentage of GDP.
Latest developmentExternal debt level decreased slightly to USD 136.6 Billion at the end of 2Q15. External debt as percentage of GDP decreased slightly to 33.2%.
External debt decreased slightly so far in 2015
Chart 5.10a – External Debt LevelBillion USD
Source: Bank of Thailand
69.0 74.4 76.1 75.3100.6 104.3
130.7 139.9 140.7 136.6
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
38.5% 35.4% 31.4% 28.8%35.2% 33.7%
38.0% 38.2% 34.5% 33.2%
06YE 07YE 08YE 09YE 10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
65© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
External debt compositionBreakdown of external debt. Chart A shows the external debt breakdown by borrowers. Chart B shows the external debt breakdown by maturity.
Latest developmentExternal debt structure has continued to shift toward more long-term debt, which lowers the risk of not having enough foreign exchange to service external debt.
External debt structure has continued to shift toward more long‐term debt
Source: Bank of Thailand
84% 80% 82% 82% 83%
16% 20% 18% 18% 17%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdownLong‐Term vs Short‐Term
Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
55% 56% 57% 60% 60%
45% 44% 43% 40% 40%
11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Long termShort term
66© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
External Debt repayment capabilityA look at the country’s capabilities of servicing the external debt. Chart A shows the country’s international reserves as percentage of short-term external debt. Chart B shows the external debt service ratio (Debt service payment / Export of goods and services).
Latest developmentDebt service ratio increased sharply to 8.1% in 2Q15. However, International reserves (as % of ST external debt) is still at healthy level (293%). Capability to repay external debt is not yet a concern at the moment.
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
340%370%
312%
279% 277%293%
10YE 11YE 12YE 13YE 14YE 15/2Q
Chart 5.12a – International reserves As % of ST external debt
Chart 5.12b – Debt service ratio*Percent
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
4.7%
3.4%
4.2% 4.0%
4.7%
8.1%
10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15/2Q
Big surge in external debt payment in 2Q15
67© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.comCopyright © ChartingTHAILAND™. All rights reserved.
International reservesInternational reserve assets refer to external assets that are held or controlled by central bank and are readily available for immediate uses, for instance, in financing payment imbalances or in implementing exchange rate policy. The figures also include the net forward position (future assets/liabilities arising from currency forward contracts between BOT and the market). Chart A shows international reserves level in US$ term. Chart B shows as number of months that it can finance import.
Latest developmentInternational reserves in US$ term have been decreasing since its peak in 2011. So far in 2015, the reserves decreased slightly but the number of months that it can finance import remained at 9.7 months, which is still considered excessive.
Net International reserves decreased slightly in 2015 but still considered excessive
Chart 5.13a – International reserves level*At the end of period, Billion USD
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
6.99.1
7.9
13.812.6
10.8 9.9 9.1 9.5 9.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sep-15
Chart 5.13b – International reserves as number of months of import**
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position(**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months
73.9 106.5 118.0 154.1191.7 206.4 205.8 190.2 180.2 168.8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sep-15
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Exchange ratesNominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) has been constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht vis-à-vis Thailand’s 23 major trading partners and trade competitors. The weight of each currency varies according to how important the country is as a trading partner and trade competitor. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation. Chart B shows the year-on-year change of average selling rates of selected currencies.
Latest developmentNominal Effective Exchange Rate was unchanged in October. Over the last 12 months THB depreciated 0.4% against key currencies. USD has appreciated the most against THB during the period.
THB was stable in October
Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
Chart 5.17b – Y‐o‐Y change in FX rate*Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Oct 30th 2015
19.4
13.0
12.8
4.6
4.0
0.5
0.0
-1.0
-2.3
-2.4
-4.5
-4.8
-5.3
-6.3
-8.7
MYR ‐ 8.429
MXN ‐ 2.15
AUD ‐ 25.6645
EUR ‐ 39.4362
IDR ‐ 2.7675
JPY ‐ 29.7506
SGD ‐ 25.6677
KRW ‐ 0.0313
TWD ‐ 1.0991
INR ‐ 0.5772
PHP ‐ 0.7737
GBP ‐ 54.9621
CNY ‐ 5.6739
VND ‐ 0.0016
USD ‐ 35.7589
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers
USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee,KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
69© ChartingTHAILAND™www.ChartingThailand.com
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
112.0
114.0
Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
M‐o‐M‐0.0%
Y‐o‐Y‐0.4%
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates
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Baht depreciates Baht appreciates
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