Digital trends: Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

transcript

DIGITAL TRENDS Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

PREDICTIONS...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg

„Predic(on is very difficult, especially about the future. “ Niels Bohr (1885 -‐ 1962)

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T

„The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.“ President Michigan Savings Bank advising not to invest in Ford Motor Co. (1903)

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T

„There is not the slightest indica(on that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shaSered at will.“ Albert Einstein (1932)

PREDICTIONS...

http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg

„I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Thomas Watson (1943)

PREDICTIONS...

https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg

„A computer in every home.“ Bill Gates (1977)

PREDICTIONS...

http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg

„There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.“ Ken Olsen (1977)

PREDICTIONS...

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg

„There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.“ Steve Ballmer (2007)

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

„Visionaries see a future of telecommu(ng workers, interac(ve libraries and mul(media classrooms. They speak of electronic town mee(ngs and virtual communi(es. Commerce and business will shi_ from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democra(c. Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-‐ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.“

REALLY?!

REASONS

Companies are planning for con(nuous/linear development – while the world is increasingly discon(nuous/exponen(al

„If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.“ Jack Welch

http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1

REASONS

“How did you go bankrupt?” “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

REASONS 1. Innovator‘s Dilemma

REASONS 2. Technology-adoption

REASONS 3. Illusion of linearity

hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-‐growth-‐vs-‐linear-‐thinking-‐in-‐management-‐teams.html

REASONS

„We are fine!“

REASONS

„We are fucked!“

ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997

http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg

•  1.8 teraflops •  10.000 Intel Pen(um Pro •  Size: Tennis-‐Court •  Energy consump(on: 800 houses •  Cost: $55 million

PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3

•  1.8 teraflops •  Cost: $399

DNA-SEQUENCING

http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg

•  Cost 2007: $10 million

DNA-SEQUENCING

http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901 http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg

•  Cost 2015: $1.000

LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542

•  30 years: 1955 -‐> 1985

LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS

https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif

•  30 years: 1985 -‐> 2015

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg

•  How many folds to the moon?

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon

REPLACING JOBS

„The role of humans as the most important factor of produc(on is bound to diminish in the same way that the role of horses in agricultural produc(on was first diminished and then eliminated by the introduc(on of tractors.“ Wassily Leon(ef (1983)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg

REPLACING JOBS

In the next two decades, 47 per cent of employment is ‘in the high-‐risk category’, meaning it is ‘poten(ally automatable’.

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m

REPLACING JOBS

MOBILITY

Cars: $9 trillion market http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg

MOBILITY

1.2 million deaths related to car accidents/year (40% alcohol/93% distracted) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg

MOBILITY

Driven just 4% of the (me Cost of $9.000/year

http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/ http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/ http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg

MOBILITY

Self-‐driving cars: 99% fewer cars required Parking lots no longer required (10% city space) http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf

http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/

ENERGY

$6 trillion market (10% GDP)

ENERGY

http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg

ENERGY

http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/

ENERGY

http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg

ENERGY

http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg

HEALTH

$7.5 trillion market From one-‐for-‐all to personalized medicine From treatment to preven(on

HEALTH

$258 bn. + 130,000 deaths due to non-‐prescribed medica(on just in US No doctors required within 20 years? http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png

http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo

INSURANCE

Sensors everywhere

http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/

TELCOS

$33 bn. lost SMS revenues http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion

TELCOS

Dumb pipe?

EDUCATION

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/

BANKING

„Banking is necessary, banks are not.“ Bill Gates

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg

BANKING

2020: 35% of revenues lost to non-‐banks and online pure-‐plays http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/

BANKING

Banking license

BANKING

ASacks on all fronts https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/

$500 bn. transfer/payment fees/year http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/ http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing- http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman

THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

= largest „taxi“ provider; no vehicles

= most popular media owner; no content created

= most valuable retailer; no inventory

= largest accomoda(on provider; no real estate

= largest food delivery; no restaurants, no fleet

User experience = the central part: own the customer (and the profits) by solving her problem in the most seamless, enjoyable way.

„The customer's percep(on is your reality.“ Kate Zabriskie

„Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works.“ Steve Jobs

http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg

Service Aggrega(on Need

Convenience

passive responsive proac(ve

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg

DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf

THANK YOU!

Alexander Braun alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de @almarrone