Disruptive MobilityAsfaltdag 2014, Amersfoort

Carlo van de Weijer Director Strategic Area

Smart Mobility TU/e, TomTom Traffic Solutions

Source: Raymond Kurzweil, Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence

Disruptive change

DigitizeDisrupt

DemonetizeDemocratize

Demonetization

Demonetization

The mobile being

The 1h06m mobility urge

The mobile beingM

obile

hou

rs p

er d

ay

Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per Capita US$ 1985

The car has become a computer on wheels

• A modern car produces 100Tb data per hour

• The new Mercedes S-Class has more ECU’s and 100x more lines of software code compared to a Boeing 747

• The vehicle starts outsmarting the driver. After ESP and ABS, more and more functions are taken over by the vehicle

Cost of Mobility

Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008

Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP

Cost of Mobility

Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008

Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP

Stupid Mobility

Traffic Death in the Netherlands 1950-2010

• Relatively less cars are involved in fatal accidents

• Limited effectiveness of law enforcement: Less and less accidents caused by traditional traffic offenses; driver distraction is the new enemy

• Volvo: “no one will be killed or injured in a new Volvo by 2020”

Cost of Mobility

Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008

Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP

Stupid Mobility

NOx (g/kWh)

0,30

1 2 3 4

0,20

– 95 %

– 97

%

0,40

Euro 1

5 6 7 8

0,10Euro

2Euro

3

Euro 4

Euro 5

Euro 1 1993

Euro 2 1996

Euro 3 2000

Euro 4 2006

Euro 5 2009

Euro 6 2014

Euro 6

PM (g/kWh)

Emission legislation

Cost of Mobility

Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008

Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP

Stupid Mobility

Stupid Mobility

Stupid Mobility

Company Confidential

• Traffic will be a self-steering system of well-informed individuals. Governments will have to make a shift from managing traffic to facilitating traffic.

• Traffic jams are a voluntary and predictable event.• Cost of congestion decreases as drivers can use time effectively• Automation will lead to increased use of roads

Traffic Management 2.0

Cost of Mobility

Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008

Safety: 1,8 - 2,3 % GDP 0% GDPEnvironment: 0,3 - 1,4 % GDP 0% GDPCongestion: 0,9 - 1,2 % GDP 0% GDP________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 3,0 - 4,9 % GDP 0% GDP

Governmental cost of modalities, €/1000pk, NL

Bron: CE 2014, Accenture

Transparent supply-demand information will change mobility

• “Simplification” of road infrastructure:– Refrain from Variable Message Signs, DRIPS, portals– Return to elementary, two-dimensional roads with high tech focus basic

functions (friction, support, road marking, drainage, +)– Less variety in traffic rules (variable speed, rush hour lanes, ++). The limited

effect will not justify the increased complexity and cost

• Smart Mobility = Smart Cars on no-nonsense infrastructure• More road traffic, more payload• Create flexibility for the future, unlike examples below

34

Future roads

• Vehicles will solve most of their own problems

• Vehicles will solve most of their own problems

• Smart Mobility: Intelligent mobility with intelligent vehicles on elementary roads

• Smart Mobility: Intelligent mobility with intelligent vehicles on elementary roads

• Automation and demand-supply services will lead to further growth of road traffic

• Automation and demand-supply services will lead to further growth of road traffic

• The high-tech will be in the asphalt, and driving on top of it

• The high-tech will be in the asphalt, and driving on top of it