Post on 30-Mar-2015
transcript
Market AnalysisMajor Findings Presented to Urban Land Institute Nashville
Randall Gross / Development EconomicsNashville Metropolitan Development and Housing Agency (MDHA)
Downtown / SoBro
Introduction & Purpose
Market Analysis Forecast potential: All uses in SoBro & broader Downtown Area Downtown: the economic “core of the apple” & “face of
Nashville” Strategic Planning
Translate the market findings into development, marketing, management, and financing strategies for implementation
Purpose of this Information MDHA: Programs, redevelopment policies & incentives
▪ Specific attention to Rolling Mill Hill Inform the SoBro Master Plan (CCA) Downtown development planning & ED Downtown marketing Data/information to help guide private development
STUDY AREA
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
EXISTING CONDITIONS
Location Center of 13-county MSA; market of 1.7 million 1-day’s drive of 50% US population Good air connections, but lacks strong international access
Local Transportation Access Limited, but gradually expanding public transit system Convergence of 6 interstates: “Nexus” & “Noose” East-west connectivity issues
Parking Accelerating need for parking management & access
Physical Conditions Topography & flooding Important architectural heritage but “missing teeth” Sporadic but limited “identity marketing” urban design
EXISTING INVENTORY
Industrial: 9.0 million sq. ft. Office: 7.9 million sq. ft. Housing: 5,900 units Retail: 1.5 million sq. ft. Convention: 1.2 million sq. ft. Hotels: 2,500 rooms Government & Community: 150+ Parking lots 754 Vacant lots 1,560 Audience Support:
Museums 4 (+2 planned) Performing arts venues 6 Multi-use & sports venues 5 Commercial entertainment 46 (650,000 sq. ft.) Historic/Visitor attractions 11 Parks & trails 4
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Diversified regional economic base Concentrations in health care, accommodation
services, and retail trade
6.7% employment growth since 1998 100,000 jobs added 1998-2007 60,000 jobs lost 2007-2010
Declining industries Manufacturing: -36% (-30,000 jobs) Construction -10% (-3,600 jobs)
Growing industries Health care +35% (+27,300 jobs) Accommodation +31% (+16,000 jobs) Management +49% (+8,600 jobs)
OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS
OFFICE – Existing Market
Downtown Mix▪ State Government▪ Banks & financial
institutions▪ Law firms▪ Corporate▪ Technology▪ Media
OFFICE – Existing Market
OFFICE – Existing Market
Table 3. OFFICE-RELATED EMPLOYMENT TRENDS,
CORE DOWNTOWN ZIP CODES, 1998-2010
1998-2010 Change
Industry 1998 2010 Number Percent
Information 2,919 1,555 (1,364) -46.7%
Finance & Insurance 3,165 2,086 (1,079) -34.1%
Real Estate 795 453 (342) -43.0%
Prof & Tech Svcs 5,801 4,250 (1,550) -26.7%
Management 365 440 76 20.7%
Medical Offices 1,138 1,886 748 65.8%
Government 12,982 12,133 (849) -6.5%
TOTAL 27,165 22,805 (4,360) -16.0%
Note: Based on employment in zip codes 37201,
37219 and 37243.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, State of
Tennessee, and Randall Gross / Development
Economics.
OFFICE – Existing Market
Table 5. SUMMARY OFFICE MARKET CONDITIONS, NASHVILLE MARKET,
2ND QUARTER 2012
Vacancy Rate Class A Under
Sub-Market Total Vacant Direct Total Rental Rate Constr.
Airport North 4,155,654 477,278 11.5% 13.5% $ 20.28 -
Airport South 2,645,405 548,478 20.7% 21.9% $ 20.00 -
Brentwood 4,965,344 274,640 5.5% 5.7% $ 22.35 203,000
Cool Springs 5,958,409 258,905 4.3% 6.1% $ 22.64 312,950
CBD 7,884,874 1,205,180 15.3% 18.3% $ 24.08 -
Green Hills/M Row 2,009,235 162,683 8.1% 8.6% $ 29.11 -
Metro Center 1,580,891 197,129 12.5% 12.5% $ 17.96 -
N Nashville/Rivergate 469,000 45,224 9.6% 9.6% $ 19.23 -
West End/Belle Mde 3,790,541 163,544 4.3% 7.4% $ 26.99 -
TOTAL 33,459,353 3,333,061 10.0% 11.7% $ 23.43 515,950
Sources: Cassidy Turley and Randall Gross / Development Economics.
OFFICE – Existing Market
Absorption Trends 640,000 sf / year
(96-11) 840,000 sf / year
(07-11)
Table 8. OFFICE ABSORPTION BY SUB-MARKET
AND SHARE, NASHVILLE MARKET, 2007-2011
2007-2011 Absorption (Square Feet)
Sub-Market Total Average Annual Share
Airport North 666,314 133,263 15.8%
Airport South 140,000 28,000 3.3%
Brentwood/CS 2,774,844 554,969 65.8%
CBD 374,613 74,923 8.9%
Green Hills/ M. Row 114,663 22,933 2.7%
Metro Center 18,115 3,623 0.4%
North Nashville 85,228 17,046 2.0%
West End/BM 43,610 8,722 1.0%
TOTAL 4,217,389 843,478 100.0%
Sources: Cassidy Turley and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
OFFICE – Demand Forecasts
Table 11. OFFICE SPACE DEMAND PROJECTIONS BASED ON
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN OFFICE-FOCUSED
INDUSTRIES, DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE, 2012-2022
Square Feet
Selected Industry 2012-2017 2017-2022 TOTAL Annual
Finance/Insurance 32,100 28,300 60,400 6,040
Real Estate 7,400 2,900 10,300 1,030
Prof/Tech Services 108,600 83,600 192,200 19,220
Management Svcs 71,100 36,700 107,800 10,780
Health Care 37,400 26,200 63,600 6,360
TOTAL 256,600 177,700 434,300 43,430
Note Excludes Government and Owner-Occupied Space
Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.
Office Employment Projections (MSA): 2012-2021 Growth: 27,100
(19.5%) Prof/Technical
Services▪ +12,700 jobs (33.2%)
Management Services▪ +5,900 jobs (22.1%)
OFFICE – Demand Forecasts
Competitive Framework Cool Springs-Brentwood
▪ Franklin Park Airport
▪ Buchanan Point Midtown
▪ West End Summit▪ 1515 Demonbreun▪ One City / Charlotte Medical
Corridor
Table 12. ANNUAL OFFICE ABSORPTION FORECASTS,
NASHVILLE MARKET AND SUB-MARKETS,
2012-2022
Square Feet
Area 2012-2017 2017-2022 TOTAL Annual
Nashville Area Market 4,351,500 3,405,500 7,757,000 775,700
Sub-Markets
CBD 300,400 272,400 572,800 57,280
Airport North 427,200 374,600 801,800 80,180
Airport South 28,900 27,200 56,100 5,610
Brentwood/Cool Springs 2,874,800 2,043,300 4,918,100 491,810
Green Hills/ M Row 36,500 30,600 67,100 6,710
Metro Center 57,100 44,300 101,400 10,140
North Nashville 187,200 146,400 333,600 33,360
West End/BM 732,000 582,300 1,314,300 131,430
Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.
OFFICE – Market Potential Potential: 564,000 – 745,000 sq. ft. by
2022 Equal to 1 “Batman” Bldg or 2 SunTrust
Plazas Escalating trend of Re-urbanization Demand Drivers:
Professional, scientific & IT/technical services Management services Media & entertainment Others: Health care, FIRE
Growing Base: Small IT, entertainment & service firms
OFFICE – Downtown Districts
Gulch▪ Interstate access▪ Proximity to health centers
Downtown▪ State Government draw-down▪ Pro-active recruitment
So Bro▪ Information & Media Services
38,400 – 50,800 square feet▪ Professional & Technical Services
34,200 – 70,600▪ Management Services
26,100 – 28,600▪ Medical Offices
23,700 – 25,800▪ Finance & Insurance
20,300 – 20,600▪ Real Estate
6,100 - 27,700
Table 13. NEW OFFICE TENANT MIX BY
INDUSTRY AND LOCATION,
DOWNTOWN AREA, 2012-2022
Tenant Gulch Core SoBro
Information/Media 20% 15% 24%
Finance & Insurance 16% 20% 9%
Real Estate 4% 4% 4%
Prof & Tech Svcs 24% 40% 40%
Management 17% 4% 10%
Medical Offices 19% 18% 13%
Source: Randall Gross / Development
Economics.
OFFICE - Caveats & Prerequisites
Create space to accommodate smaller, emerging “footloose” firms
Create supportive environment for office tenants
Provide sufficient parking & transit Ameliorate State Government drawn down
(20%) Reduce space /change use in functionally-
obsolescent buildings Pro-active marketing & recruitment can
result in “drop ins”
HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS
HOUSING – Existing Market Diverse central city
neighborhoods Rutledge Hill The Gulch Rolling Mill Hill SoBro Germantown Salemtown Hope Gardens Capitol Hill (Sulphur
Dell, N Capitol, Market District)
Downtown
HOUSING – Existing Market
Downtown Market Drivers Young, Single Prof. &
“DINKS” Downtown Workers Students & Parents Investors Empty Nesters “Transitionals”
HOUSING – Existing Market
Table 1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, NASHVILLE &
METRO AREA (MSA), 2000-2012
2000-2012 Change
Factor 2000 2012 Number Percent
Population
Nashville MSA 1,311,789 1,630,017 318,228 24.3%
Davidson County 569,891 633,468 63,577 11.2%
Households
Nashville MSA 510,222 629,353 119,131 23.3%
Davidson County 237,405 261,935 24,530 10.3%
Ave HH Income
Nashville MSA $ 72,041 $ 82,326 $ 10,284 14.3%
Davidson County $ 68,954 $ 68,406 $ (548) -0.8%
Note: Average Household Incomes in constant
2010 dollars.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
Table 5. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, DOWNTOWN
NASHVILLE AREA, 2000-2010
2000-2010 Change
Factor 2000 2010 Number Percent
Population 9,753 13,078 3,325 34.1%
Med Age 28.7 30.5 1.8 6.2%
African-Amer. 64.1% 49.9% (0.142) -22.1%
Latino 2.4% 2.9% 0.005 21.8%
Households 3,860 5,915 2,055 53.2%
Families 42.4% 32.0% (0.104) -24.6%
Singles 49.1% 68.0% 0.189 38.5%
Children <19 2,927 2,655 (272) -9.3%
Income (Ave) $ 21,640 $ 29,538 $ 7,899 36.5%
Median $ 35,597 $37,917 $ 2,320 6.5%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
HOUSING – Existing Market CBD Rental Market
High occupancy▪ 92% (2009) – 98%
(2012)▪ CBD highest in region
Rents▪ $1.95 psf average
Absorption▪ 140 – 160 units /
month▪ 30 units / mo / project
CBD For-Sale Market (2011-12) Ave SF: 1,260 Ave Sale Price:
$196,070 Ave Sale/SF: $156 # Sales: 630/year # Condos on
market: <10
HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey
Demographics 94% have attended college 1/3 have advanced degrees Diverse incomes 40% work in Government, 12% in non-
profits 16% work in law firms 77% are home owners; Only 21% are
renters
HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey
HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey
8% already live downtown
Another 30% would consider living downtown
Highest propensity: Antioch Hermitage West Meade Old Hickory Bellevue Crieve Hall/Glencliff S Nashville/Woodbine
Reason to live downtown: Closer to work:
43% Closer to city life:
34% N/A or Already in CBD:
17% Other reasons:
5% Closer to friends/people:
< 1%
HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey
HOUSING – CBD Employee Survey
Preferences Historic or
consistent with neighborhood character
Home ownership Single-family: 54%
▪ Detached: 31%▪ Attached: 23%
Affordable▪ $2,200 / month
average▪ 1/3 < $1,000 / month
HOUSING - Demand
Table 23. NET NEW DOWNTOWN
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS,
2012-2022
Use Net New Share
Office 1,870 44.3%
Retail/Entertain 570 13.5%
Hotel 1,800 42.7%
Industrial (20) -0.5%
TOTAL 4,220 100.0%
Source: Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
Table 21. SINGLES AND NON-FAMILY HOUSEHOLD FORECASTS,
DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE, TARGET MARKETS AND
NASHVILLE MSA, 2000-2012
2012-2017 Change
Area 2012 2017 Number Percent
Nashville MSA 196,418 206,550 10,132 5.2%
Target Markets 51,951 53,993 2,042 3.9%
Antioch 12,434 13,611 1,177 9.5%
Hermitage 5,911 6,217 306 5.2%
Old Hickory 2,528 2,606 78 3.1%
West Meade 4,710 4,766 56 1.2%
East Nashville 4,336 4,295 (41) -0.9%
South Nashville 2,796 2,724 (72) -2.6%
Glencliff 12,896 13,221 325 2.5%
Bellevue 6,340 6,553 213 3.4%
Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Claritas, Inc., and
Randall Gross / Development Economics.
HOUSING - Demand
Competitive Framework
HOUSING – Market Potential Potential: 3,530 housing units in Loop by
2017 2,200 move-ups / move-downs 1,330 growth-generated (600 relocations)
Product: Detached Single-Family Homes 650
DU Attached Single-Family/Brownstones 505 Lofts/Units in Mixed-Use Buildings 500 Condominiums 400 Multi-family Apartments 1,480
HOUSING- Districts
Northside Neighborhoods (Germantown, Capitol Hill, Buena Vista, Salemtown) Single-family attached & detached Mid-rise lofts, mixed-use
SoBro/Rolling Mill Hill High-rise apartments and condominiums Loft/Mixed-use, Mixed-income buildings Single-family attached (e.g., brownstones)
Gulch/Downtown High-rise apartments and condominiums Conversions of office space Mixed-use
RETAIL & ENTERTAINMENT MARKET ANALYSIS
RETAIL – Existing MarketTable 1. RETAIL INVENTORY BY PRIMARY CATEGORY,
DOWNTOWN STUDY AREA, 2012
Number of
Square
Category Businesses Percent Footage Percent
Convenience Goods 54 14.6% 176,252 8.1%
Shoppers Goods 98 26.6% 596,936 27.3%
Eating/Drinking 118 32.0% 506,498 23.2%
Entertainment 46 12.5% 647,059 29.6%
Personal Services 25 6.8% 58,563 2.7%
Vacant 28 7.6% 197,283 9.0%
TOTAL 369 100.0% 2,182,591 100.0%
Sources: Metro Nashville Government and Randall Gross/
Development Economics.
RETAIL – Existing MarketTable 2. COMMERCIAL SPACE BY RETAIL CATEGORY,
VARIOUS DOWNTOWN SUB-MARKETS, 2012
Category Core SoBro Gulch North TOTAL
Convenience Goods 71,310 40,192 22,900 101,387 235,790
Shoppers Goods 347,084 171,557 29,800 42,599 591,040
Eating/Drinking 305,613 55,528 90,204 55,153 506,498
Entertainment 544,122 70,408 2,907 - 617,437
Personal Services 7,392 39,828 5,000 6,343 58,563
Vacant 141,715 23,071 25,000 7,498 197,283
TOTAL 1,417,236 400,585 175,811 212,979 2,206,611
Sources: Metro Nashville Government and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
RETAIL – Existing Market
CBD Area Rents Downtown Core $17.19 per square foot SoBro $14.29 Germantown $15.42 East $12.50 Gulch $26.00
Sales (per business interviews) Average $207psf Growth +1.7%/annum Increasing 63% Declining 17%
RETAIL – Existing Market
Key Issues Parking accessibility & pricing Dominance of dining & entertainment Dependency on events & tourism
▪ CMA Fest is “Christmas”▪ Heavy dependence on Bridgestone Arena
Limited (but growing) regional market appeal ▪ Lack of shopping “district”▪ Parking / traffic▪ Lack of anchors
RETAIL - Demand
Trade Area: $4.2 Billion forecasted
growth in income by 2017
$2.5 Billion growth in expenditure potentials
Visitors: $117.5 million growth
Downtown Workers: $53.7 million growth
Students: $1.0 million growth
Table 5 TPI FORECASTS, DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE
TRADE AREAS, 2012-2017
TPI (000) 2012-2017 Change
Trade Area 2012 2017 Amount Percent
CBD $ 63,303 $ 72,017 $ 8,714 13.8%
Urban $ 2,541,306 $ 2,614,101 $ 72,795 2.9%
Other David $13,110,571 $14,039,340 $ 928,769 7.1%
Other MSA $24,553,339 $27,749,678 $3,196,339 13.0%
Total $40,268,519 $44,475,135 $4,206,616 10.4%
Notes: Total personal income (TPI) expressed in
thousands of constant 2011 dollars.
Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.
RETAIL - Potentials
Table 6. SUMMARY WARRANTED RETAIL DEMAND BY USE
DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE STUDY AREA, 2012 AND 2017
Gross Demand (SF) Existing Warranted
Type of Good 2012 2017 Uses Demand
Convenience 252,999 310,865 235,790 75,075
Shoppers Goods 701,497 876,924 596,936 279,988
Eating/Drinking 418,022 548,209 506,498 41,711
Entertainment 619,911 779,521 647,059 132,462
Personal Services 50,361 61,067 58,563 2,503
TOTAL 2,042,790 2,576,585 2,044,845 531,740
Existing Vacant
197,283
Net New Space
334,456
Source: Randall Gross / Development Economics.
RETAIL
Shopping SoBro Grocery 18,000 4.4%
Convenience Stores 6,000 1.5%
Fish/Meat (Farmer's Market) 3,000 0.7%
International Foodstore 2,500 0.6%
Pharmacy/Cosmetics 5,000 1.2%
Whiskey/Specialty Liquor Store 4,500 1.1%
Apparel & Accessory Stores (non-tourist) 20,000 4.9%
Jewelry Store 3,000 0.7%
Specialty Furniture & HF/Art & Antiques 16,000 3.9%
Electronics, Camera & Appliances 18,000 4.4%
Kitchenware/Hardware-Specialty 9,000 2.2%
Department Store(s) 70,000 17.0%
Music/Book Specialty Store 2,200 0.5%
Gift Stores 10,000 2.4%
Toy and Game Stores 20,000 4.9%
Luggage/Leather Store 5,000 1.2%
Sewing Store 3,300 0.8%
Sporting Goods Stores-Outdoor/Specialty 18,000 4.4%
Musical Instruments/Hobby-Destination 4,000 1.0%
Personal Services/Salons 3,000 0.7%
RETAIL
Key anchor uses Cinemas Musical theatre entertainment Local Brands
▪ Jack Daniels, Goo Goo Clusters “Artisan” industrial * Toy, hobby & game store Department / GM store (“General store” concept) Sporting goods store Apparel & accessory stores
So Bro Mixed-use, anchored shopping district (3-5 blocks) Lafayette Street
HOTEL MARKET ANALYSIS
HOTELS – Existing Market
Table 1. NASHVILLE-AREA HOTEL SUB-MARKET PERFORMANCE
FACTORS, 2012
Sub-Market Hotels Rooms Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Downtown 40 7,087 83.3% $ 135.37 $ 112.81
Airport 67 11,156 76.4% $ 106.29 $ 81.20
I-65 North 52 4,094 60.4% $ 62.98 $ 38.04
I-24 Murfreesboro 59 5,136 71.2% $ 66.89 $ 47.63
Brentwood/Franklin 37 4,252 78.9% $ 93.30 $ 73.58
Other 62 4,079 58.3% $ 62.39 $ 62.39
TOTAL 317 35,804 73.4% $ 97.64 $ 71.69
Sources: Smith Travel Research, Inc. and Randall Gross / Development
Economics.
HOTELS - Demand
Leisure Travel Sightseeing is 45% of all
visits to Nashville 1,130,000 estimated
out-of-town visitors to CBD attractions (2011)
84% of overnight visitors stay in hotels
Business Travel Estimated 390,000
convention attendance in 2012, increasing to 516,000 by 2016 (MCC).
Table 3. DOWNTOWN HOTEL MARKET BASE FORECASTS,
2012-2021
2012-2016 Change
Factor 2012 2016 2021 Number Percent
Attendance Base 3,995,200 Overnight Visits 1/ 1,130,500 1,309,600 1,528,200 179,100 15.8%
Bus/Meeting 483,000 665,400 705,000 182,400 37.8%
Total Room-Nights 1,613,500 1,975,000 2,233,200 361,500 22.4%
Note: 1/ Room-nights generated by overnight leisure visits,
accounting for multiple venue attendance.
Sources: Venue operators, Nashville Convention & Visitors Bureau,
Nashville Convention Center and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
HOTELS – Planned Development
CBD Area – 4,000+ rooms Omni Nashville – 800 rooms Hyatt Place-255 Gulch – <450
▪ Eakin Partners (270+/-)▪ Vision Hospitality (150+/-)
Hilton Harden Inn-200 Giarrantana-315 / Marriott Trail West (Westin)-475 Others:
▪ White Lodging (4*)▪ Pinnacle Hotels
▪ 5th Ave/KVB▪ 415 4th Avenue
▪ Matthews/Northpoint (5th/KVB)▪ Platinum Hosp (406 6th ) ▪ Arizona investors 432 6th
Competition Homewood Suites-
192 Residence
Inn/Spring Hill Suites
Intercontinental
HOTELS – Comparables
4,100 rooms near MCC with 1,740 existing & 2,400 planned “known” hotel rooms
Yields ratio of 0.011 rooms/SF convention space.
Roughly equal to comparables average of 0.012 rooms/SF
Table 4. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF
CONVENTION-AREA HOTEL ROOMS
Exhibition
Room/SF
City Space Rooms Ratio
Nashville 375,000 4,000 0.0107
Houston 862,000 4,900 0.0057
Charlotte 280,000 3,917 0.0140
Minneapolis 480,000 5,362 0.0112
New Orleans 1,100,000 18,603 0.0169
Raleigh 150,000 688 0.0046
Total/Average 3,247,000 37,470 0.0115
Note: Nashville includes planned hotels.
Sources: Comparable convention centers,
HotelGuides.com, and Randall Gross/
Development Economics.
HOTELS - Potentials
Demand for +361,500 room-nights by 2017
Potential for +2,590 rooms in SoBro area
2,460 “known” rooms planned in SoBro area
Classification Mismatch: Only 2 planned hotels are full-
service properties with 300+ rooms, as needed by convention planners
INDUSTRIAL OPPORTUNITIES
INDUSTRIAL – Existing Conditions
Industrial is largest land use in CBD study area
ICBD is 2nd largest regional industrial sub-market
ICBD vacancy is only 5.9%, lowest of all sub-markets
Industrial absorption rebounded in 2011
CBD is competitive for machine shops, repair services, wholesale supply, recycling, transportation services, showroom space, & specialty niche manufacturing spaces
Despite decline in manufacturing overall, growth in niche industries, i.e., food & beverage
Table 1. FOOD MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT,
TRENDS, NASHVILLE MSA, 2007-2010
2007-2010 Change
Food Sector 2007 2010 Number Percent
Animal Food 294 217 (77) -26.2%
Sugar/Confection 223 750 527 236.1%
Fruit/Veg 750 79 (671) -89.5%
Dairy 1,068 794 (274) -25.7%
Meat 2,067 2,342 275 13.3%
Bakery/Tortilla 1,808 2,494 686 37.9%
Other 313 286 (27) -8.6%
Beverage 448 321 (127) -28.3%
TOTAL 6,971 7,283 312 4.5%
Sources: US Bureau of the Census and Randall Gross /
Development Economics.
INDUSTRIAL - Opportunities SoBro “Artisanal” Manufacturing Uses
Whiskey distilleries Micro-breweries Specialty bakeries Confectionary manufacturers (chocolate and non-chocolate) Artisanal / regional food manufacturers Craft furniture and furnishings designers, producers & wholesalers Small specialty lighting and electrical equipment manufacturers Craft paper, bookbinding and specialty printing companies Visual artists and sculptors Craft toy and game producers Clothing, footwear, jewelry and accessory designers and producers Specialty regional meat producers/butchers (e.g., smoked hams) Record & DVD pressing companies Film production companies
AUDIENCE SUPPORT VENUEOPPORTUNTIES
AUDIENCE SUPPORT – Existing Conditions
Table 4. AVERAGE ATTENDANCE FOR SELECTED DOWNTOWN
AUDIENCE VENUES AND ATTRACTIONS, NASHVILLE
Attendance Share of Annual
Venue 2011 Average Total Growth
Country Music Hall of Fame 507,510 446,007 10.5% 10.3%
Tennessee State Museum 110,435 86,969 2.0% 26.5%
Frist Center 248,479 234,144 5.5% 24.6%
Ryman (Tours) 165,495 134,725 3.2% 17.8%
Ryman (Performance) 191,734 154,523 3.6% 27.6%
General Jackson 126,698 126,041 3.0% -10.0%
Music City Queen 8,130 9,713 0.2% -21.9%
Adventure Science Center 314,088 312,396 7.4% -4.1%
Bridgestone Arena 1,414,205 1,169,930 27.6% 20.4%
Municipal Auditorium N/A 270,000 6.4% 7.3%
TPAC 386,919 N/A 9.1% N/A
LP Field 553,000 553,144 13.0% N/A
Schermerhorn Hall N/A 142,290 3.4% N/A
Library-Wishing Well Theatre N/A 69,000 1.6% N/A
Children's Theatre 81,772 N/A 1.9% N/A
CMA Music Festival (2012) 71,000 67,000 1.6% 9.2%
TOTAL 4,660,755 4,244,571 100.0% 17.0%
Note: N/A means not applicable or available.
Sources: Venue representatives, annual reports, web sites
and Randall Gross / Development Economics
AUDIENCE SUPPORT-Opportunities
Key anchors Family Entertainment Venues Thematic Musical Theatre Specialty Museums Baseball stadium
Cinemas (commercial or community) Commercial stage & musical production theatres Specialty museums (e.g., international or ethnic culture) Baseball, soccer, basketball venues Family entertainment venues (i.e., Dave & Busters), bowling center,
etc Amphitheatre (although situated on east bank) Architectural tours, public historic houses (e.g., Polk Place), etc. Live music venues (beyond country honky-tonks and symphony) Programmed public art Ethnic cultural venues (such as performing arts venues or galleries) Centralized public space/park International language services & tours
CONCEPTS & STRATEGIES
CONCEPT – SoBro Districts Create distinct districts for “identity marketing” &
neighborhoods that appeal to potential residents
Rolling Mill Hill:▪ Industrial theme▪ Mixed-housing, art lofts/studios, retail node
Lafayette District: ▪ 4th / 5th Avenue & Lafayette Shopping Districts▪ 8th Avenue “funky” antiques & home furnishings▪ 4th Avenue Brownstone Row Neighborhood
Rutledge Hill Neighborhood:▪ Historic District - Fill gaps
5th Avenue “Show District”▪ Dining & entertainment – musical/theatre▪ Link to Ave of Arts, CMHOF, Opry, MCC, District, and Schermerhorn▪ Arts/Cultural anchor at 5th & Lafayette
CONCEPT – Lafayette District
SoBro Mixed-Use Neighborhood & Shopping District Brownstones Lofts / Mixed-use 2-5 blocks retail Anchor stores Local Brands “Nashville Artisan”
industrial activities
Newbury Street, Boston
Forest Avenue, Staten Island
Palo Alto, CA
CONCEPT – Project: Musical Theatre Productions
International reputation draw as “Music City” Strong talent base in writing, composing,
arranging, and performing music Strong technical base in production Growing talent base as well in dance and
choreography, acting, fashion design, crafts Strong corporate base in music management,
marketing, and production Synergies with growing theatre and film
production community, including interest in promoting Nashville as a home base for musical theatre productions
Synergies with Downtown live music scene, Ryman , Bridgestone, other performance venues
Growing, built-in convention and tourism audience
Growing dining scene, hotels, and support services
Local support for performance venues Lower cost of production compared w/major
cities Inherent interest among country music fans in
family-oriented entertainment
CONCEPT – Project:Art, Design & Technology Center
Workforce Training & Entrepreneurship Campus: Artisanal Business & Green Technology Center Change Interface of MCC and
Homeless shelters Create attractive campus
environment while enhancing opportunities for redevelopment and revitalization in the Lafayette Corridor.
Incorporate job and entrepreneurship training (culinary arts, recycling businesses) with existing housing, counseling, and medical facilities
Build partnerships between business, government & providers
Holistic approach to homelessness; De-emphasize “warehousing” of homeless
Nashville as “cutting edge” example
CONCEPT – Capitol District Mixed-use Capitol Hill
neighborhood along Bicentennial Mall Anchored by proposed
State Library / Archives, music museum
Activate Park / Farmer’s Market as destination with restaurants, market retail uses
Mixed-use & structured parking (State/Metro/Private)
CONCEPT – Project: “Decking” of Interstate
Decking of Interstate Linking CBD/ West
End markets Provides
underground parking opportunity
Strengthens core Creates “walk-able”
link between Midtown and CBD
“The Cap” in Columbus (I-670)
CONCEPTS – Civic Uses:Nashville: World’s Great Cities
Downtown/Midtown Parking Authority Cultural Nodes & Specialty Museums
Nashville as “cultural capital” Performance /Retail venue at TSU Demonbreun (or Lafayette) Park
“Central Park” for SoBro Thermal Site (SoBro Plan Concept)
Improved pedestrian & transportation linkages SoBro-Gulch (SoBro Plan Concepts) CBD – Midtown (decking) Transit stops at appropriate locations
Role of “Pro-Active” Placemakingin Capturing Market Potential
Build on historic context The small pieces are important The best cities feel “organic”
Ensure mixed-use & “walk-ability” Reduce need / cost of parking & transportation Appeal to growing number of market niches
Appeal to diverse markets Nashville’s growth is driven by diverse markets No “one size fits all” for businesses or
residents Diversity of districts, nodes, corridors,
neighborhoods, products, and pricing
Role of “Pro-Active” Placemaking(Continued)
Recognize Importance of Pro-active Leveraging
In order for Nashville to capture its market potential, there is a need for more “pro-active” efforts Master planning (versus a focus on “sites”)
Zoning is a “reactive” tool. A need for pro-active measures beyond zoning.
Pro-active policies, negotiation & engagement with the private sector
Pro-active Urban Design and Infrastructure investments to enhance identity
Partnerships to enable financing (e.g., parking) Design and infrastructure elements as “linkages” between
individual sites Branding & identity marketing
DISCUSSION