Post on 23-Feb-2016
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
IMPLICATIONS FOR AG
LENDERSRemarks by Mark PearsonIndependent Community Bankers
Nashville, TennesseeMarch 12, 2012
Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016
Source: usgovernmentspending.com
U.S. National Debt
Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO
Thoughts on the World Economy
Source: CIA Factbook
• $71.25 trillion – Global GDP• $14.89 trillion – EU GDP• $14.72 trillion – U.S. GDP• $9.87 trillion – China GDP• $4.33 trillion – Japan GDP• $4.04 trillion – India GDP
U.S. GDP – FY2004-FY2014
Source: usgovernmentspending.com
World Real GDP Growth 1980-2013
Source: Int’l Monetary Fund
U.S. Consumer Confidence
Source: University of Michigan
New Housing Starts
Source: U.S. Census of Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ New Orders 2010-11
DJIA Five-Year Performance
Source: finance.yahoo.com
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
Source: finance.yahoo.com
Five-Year U.S. Dollar Index
Source: NYBOT
Source: kitco.com
Five-Year Gold Prices
10-Year Prime Rate
Source: MoneyCafe.com
Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010
Source: Chicago Federal Reserve
Repayment Capacity 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
d
Farm Sector Debt Ratios 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
Farm Sector Equity 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
d
Farm Sector Business Debt 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
Light Sweet Crude Oil
Source: NYMEX
China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2020
Source: Int’l Energy Outlook
China’s Demand for Oil Imports
Source: Int’l Energy Outlook
China Flex Its Military Muscles
Source: Defencetalk.com
Vital Maritime Chokepoints
Source: EIA
Projected World Population 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
World Population Density
World Population Growth Rate
Source: CIA Factbook
“Youth Bulge” Population Impact
Source: Stanford Center for Longevity
2005 2030 2050
Pakistan
Iran158.1
Afghanistan30025020015010050250
240.3
292.2
69.4
25.1
91.2
53.379.4
100.2
Millions
Median Age in Mideast Hot Spots
Source: Stanford Center for Longevity
2005 2030 2050
Pakistan
Iran
20
Afghanistan
28
34
23
16
36
1823
41
10-Year Corn Prices
Source: NASS
10-Year Soybean Prices
Source: NASS
10-Year Wheat Prices
Source: NASS
10-Year Cattle Prices
Source: NASS
10-Year Hog Prices
Source: NASS
10-Year Cotton Prices
Source: NASS