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MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT
ECOSYSTEMS ANDHUMAN WELL-BEING
Synthesis
MA
Harold A. Mooney ( )
Angela Cropper (
)
Doris Capistrano
Stephen R. Carpenter
Kanchan Chopra
Partha Dasgupta
Rashid Hassan Pretoria
Rik Leemans Wageningen
Robert M. May
Prabhu Pingali
Cristián Samper
Robert Scholes
Robert T. Watson ( )
A.H. Zakri ( )
José Sarukhán
Anne Whyte Mestor
Walter V. Reid
Robert Watson
A.H. Zakri
Salvatore Arico
Peter Bridgewater
Hama Arba Diallo
Adel El-Beltagy
Max Finlayson
Colin Galbraith
Erica Harms
Robert Hepworth
Olav Kjørven
Kerstin Leitner
Alfred Oteng-Yeboah
Christian Prip
Mario Ramos
Thomas Rosswall
Achim Steiner
Halldor Thorgeirsson
Klaus Töpfer
Jeff Tschirley
Riccardo Valentini
Hamdallah Zedan
Fernando Almeida
Phoebe Barnard
Gordana Beltram
Delmar Blasco
Antony Burgmans
Esther CamacAsociación Ixä Ca
Vaá de Desarrollo InformaciónIndigena
Angela Cropper
Partha Dasgupta
José María FigueresFoundación Costa
R i c a p a r a e l D e s s a r o l l oSostenible
Fred Fortier
Mohamed H.A. Hassan( )
Jonathan Lash
Wangari Maathai
Paul MaroDar es Salaam
Harold Mooney
Marina Motovilova
M.K. PrasadK e r a l a S a s t r a S a h i t y a
Parishad
Walter V. Reid
Henry Schacht
Peter Johan ScheiFridtjof Nansen
Ismail Serageldin
David Suzuki
M.S. SwaminathanMS Swaminathan
José GalíziaTundisi
Axel WenbladSkanska AB
Muhammad Yunus
Grameen
Walter V. Reid Harold A. Mooney Angela Cropper Doris Capistrano Stephen R.Carpenter Kanchan Chopra Partha Dasgupta Thomas Dietz Anantha KumarDuraiappah Rashid Hassan Roger Kasperson Rik Leemans Robert M. May Tony
A.J. McMichael Prabhu Pingali Cristián Samper Robert Scholes Robert T.Watson A.H. Zakri Zhao Shidong Neville J. Ash Elena BennettPushpam Kumar Marcus J. Lee Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne Henk Simons JillianThonell Monika B. Zurek
MA
MA 2 José Sarukhán Anne Whyte
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island PressWashington DC.
© 2005 World Resources InstituteWorld
Resources Institute 10 G Street NE Suite 800 Washington DC 20002.
ISLAND PRESS The Center for Resource Economics
Ecosystems and human well-being : synthesis / Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.p. cm. – The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment seriesISBN 1- 59726-040-1 pbk. : alk. paper
1. Human ecology. 2. Ecosystem management. I. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Program II.Series.GF50.E26 2005304.2–dc222005010265
Dever Designs
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Zafar Adeel Carlos Corvalan Rebecca D'Cruz Nick Davidson Anantha Kumar Duraiappah C. Max
Finlayson Simon Hales Jane Lubchenco Anthony McMichael Shahid Naeem David Niemeijer Steve
Percy Uriel Safriel Robin White
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SCOPE SCOPE MA
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Ivar Baste Jeroen Bordewijk David Cooper Carlos Corvalan Nick Davidson Lyle Glowka
Guo Risheng Ju Hongbo Ju Jin Kagumaho Bob Kakuyo Melinda Kimble Kanta Kumari Stephen
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Liana Reilly Carol Rosen Mariana Sanchez Abregu Anne Schram Jean Sedgwick Tang Siang Nee
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S7.2.1 5.120 60
2.1% 200060 1.35% S7.
ESsub-SaharanS7.ES
S 7 . 2 .2
3 6
S9 .ESMA
50
S10.ES
S7 7.2
75
S.SDM
2 0 5 0
G D P
1 9 9 5
2020 2.4%/a 2020
2050 3.0%/a
1995 2020 1.4%/a
2020 2050 1.0%/a
1995 2020 1.5%/a
2020 2050 1.9%/a
1 9 9 5 2 0 2 0
1 . 9 % / a 2 0 2 0
2050 2 .5%/a
1 9 9 5
2020 2.3%/a 2020
2050 1.9%/a
1 9 9 5
2020 3.2%/a 2020
2050 4.3%/a
1 9 9 5
2020 2.5%/a 2020
2050 2.1%/a
1 9 9 5
2020 3.8%/a 2020
2050 4.8%/a
1995 2020
2.1%/a
2020 2050
1.4%/a
1 9 9 5 2 0 2 0
2 . 4 % / a
2 0 2 0 2 0 5 0
2 . 3 % / a
1 9 9 5
2 0 2 0 2 . 0 % / a 2 0 2 0
2 0 5 0 1 . 7 % / a
1 9 9 5 2 0 2 0
2 . 8 % / a 2 0 2 0
2050 3 .5%/a
2 0 5 0 2 0 5 0
2 0 5 0
8 1
2 0 5 0
9 6
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2050
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9 5
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8 8
76
S.SDM
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 5
9 %
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 5
1 0 %
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 5
2 0 0 0
2 0 %
2 0 2 5
2 0 2 5
1 0 %
CO2 4.7Gtc-eq
CH4 1.6Gtc-eq
N2O 0.6Gtc-eq
0 .2Gtc -eq
2 0 5 0 CO2 20.1Gtc-eq
CH4 3.7Gtc-eq
N2O 1.1Gtc-eq
0 .7Gtc -eq
CO2 15.4Gtc-eq
CH4 3.3Gtc-eq
N2O 1.1Gtc-eq
0 .5Gtc -eq
CO2 13.3Gtc-eq
CH4 3.2Gtc-eq
N2O 0.9Gtc-eq
0 .6Gtc -eq
SO 2
N O x 2 0 0 0
2 0 5 0
S O 2 N O x SO 2 NO x S O 2 N O x
2 0 5 0
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77
a a a a a aa a
/
2000
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78
MA 4 3 2030
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2000
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CO2
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2.0 6.4
MA
MA
MA
a . 5 0
79
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8 88cm
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80
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S.SDM
S.SDM S10.ESMA 1970 2050
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5.3
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103
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104
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F A O S T A T S
105
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C8.ES
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MA 4
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C7.ES
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107
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sub-Saharan
S9 .ES MA 2000 2050
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108
196060% 3 C9.ES
C9 9.5 5 5 %
C9.ES 26
7 %4 0 %
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19752000
S9.4.1
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C9.ES
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MA 1970 2050
1 9 7 01995 0.4% 0.6%
10
A.5.
S9 9.15
109
A . 1 .
A . 2 .20 90
bioprospecting activities
bioremediationand biomimetics
C10.ES
C10 10.8
+++
+++
+++
++
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+
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P A M
P A M
P A M
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+ + + 1 0 + + 1 0 0 +
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110
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Cladribine Leustatin Johnson & Johnson Ortho Biotech
Docetaxel Taxotere Rh?ne-Poulenc Rorer
Fludarabine Fludara Berlex
Idarubicin Idamycin Pharmacia & Upjohn
Irinotecan Camptosar Yakult Haisha
Paclitaxel Taxol Bristol-Myers Squibb
Pegaspargase Oncospar Rh?ne-Poulenc
Pentostain Nipent Parke-Davis
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Vinorelbine Navelbine Lilly
Bisantrene Wyeth Ayerst
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Formestane Ciba-Geigy
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Zinostatin Yamamouchi
111
1750
radiative forcingC13.ES A.6. 1750
CO 2
10% 30% CH4 N2O
CO 2
net sink CH4
N2O net source
IPCC
40%2 20% CO2
20 90
CO 2
1 / 31/3 20 90
s ink
CO 2
1920 CO2
20CO2
CO 2
25% 30%
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112
A 1 7 5 0 2 0 0 0
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C13 13.3
113
Dry deposition1 / 2
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CH4 S9.ES
114
R16
A.3
1/4
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Lymphatic filariasis
Sahel
West Nilevirus Lyme diseaseC14.ES
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the in t e rmed ia t e r e se rvo i r hos tspec i e s
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kala-azar
HIVSARS
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115
C14 14.4
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Hantavirus .
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116
C14 14.4
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6 192
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+ ++ +++ ++++
117
C15.ES
C15.ES 90% 95% 70%
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80%
g l o b a l i n c i d e n t n i t r o g e nload ing
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118
b a r r i e rbeaches
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C16.ES 17%
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119
C16 16.6
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120
M A
MA
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C.SDM
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2020 10% 80%S9.3.7 MA 4 3
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S9.3.7
123
effective
promising
problematic
I E ST K
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124
R 5
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GLGN
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125
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R 6
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126
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R 7
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NGOB
127
GLGNB
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GLGN
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R 8
R 8
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GLC
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S
BI E
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128
NGOBR
ENWFPs
N T F P sN T F P s
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R 8
R 8
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2 0 0 1C D M
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GLBC
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T E
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I
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129
GNGL
NGOC
T
I V M
/
R 1 1
R 1 1
( R 1 1 )
R 1 1
I V M
I V M
I V M
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R 1 2
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GNGLBC
SI
GNB
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GNBR
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C
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CS
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130
GIGNGL
SI
R 1 4
R 1 4
R 1 4
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R 1 4
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GLNGO
C
SK
GLNGO
C
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IS
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131
GIGN
IEKT B
U N F C C C
R 1 5
N C S
N E A P N S S D
R 1 5
S F M I C Z M
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R 1 5
U N F C C C
1 9 9 0
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R 1 3
R 1 3
R 1 3
R 1 3
R 1 3
GNGLB
NGOC
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NGOC
IEKT B
GIGN
I
GNBC
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E
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132
Walter V. Reid
Harold A. MooneyAngela Cropper
Cropper Doris Capistrano
Stephen R. Carpenter
Kanchan Chopra
Partha DasguptaThomas DietzAnantha Kumar Duraiappah
Rashid HassanRoger KaspersonRik LeemansRobert M. MayTony A.J. McMichael
Prabhu Pingali
Cristi Samper
Robert Scholes
Robert T. WatsonA.H. Zakri
Zhao ShidongNeville J. Ash
UNEP-WCMC
Elena Bennett
Pushpam Kumar
Marcus Lee
Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne
Henk Simons
Jillian ThonellU N E P -
WCMCMonika B. Zurek
Adel Farid Abdel-Kader
BahrainNimbe Adedipe
Zafar Adeel
John B.R. AgardWest Indies
Tundi Agardy Sound SeasHeidi AlbersJoseph AlcamoJacqueline Alder
Mourad Amil Ministere del’Amenagement du Territoire del’Eau et de l’EnvironnementAlejandro Argumedo Kechua-Aymara ANDESD o l o r s A r m e n t e r a sI n s t i t u t o d e I n v e s t i g a c i o n d eRecursos Biológicos Alexander vonHumboldtNeville J. Ash
UNEP-WCMC
Bruce Aylward Deschutes Re-sources ConservancySuresh Chandra Babu
Jayanta Bandyopadhyay
Charles Victor Barber IUCN
Stephen BassAllan Batchelor B&M Environmen-tal Services Pty LtdT. Douglas Beard Jr.
A n d r e w B e a t t i eMacquarie Juan Carlos Belausteguigoitia
Elena Bennett
D.K. BhattacharyaH e r n á n B l a n c o R e c u r s o s eInvest igación para e l Desarrol loSustentableJorge E. Botero Centro Nacional deInvestigaciones de CaféLelys Bravo de Guenni UniversidadSimón BolívarEduardo Brondizio
Victor Brovkin
Katrina BrownColin D. ButlerJ. Baird Callicott
Esther Camac-RamirezIxä Ca Vaá Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
Doris Capistrano
Fabricio William Carbonell TorresIxä Ca Vaá
Stephen R. Carpenter
Kenneth G. Cassman
133
Juan Carlos Castilla
Robert Chambers
W. Bradnee Chambers
F. Stuart Chapin III
Kanchan Chopra
Flavio ComimRio Grande do SulUlisses E.C. Confalonieri
Steve CorkCarlos Corvalan
Wolfgang Cramer
Angela CropperCropper
Graeme Cumming
Owen Cylke
Rebecca D’Cruz Aonyx Environ-mentalGretchen C. DailyPartha DasguptaRudolf S. de Groot
Ruth S. DeFriesSandra Diaz Universidad Nacionalde CórdobaT h o m a s D i e t z
Richard Dugdale
Anantha Kumar Duraiappah
Simeon EhuiPolly Ericksen
Christo Fabricius RhodesDan FaithJoseph FargioneColin Filer
C. Max Finlayson
Dana R. FisherCarl FolkeMiguel Fortes
Madhav GadgilHabiba GitayYogesh GokhaleThomas HahnSimon Hales
Kirk HamiltonRash id Hassan
He DamingKenneth R. HingaAnkila J. Hiremath
Joanna House Max Planck
Rober t W. Howar th
Tariq IsmailA n t h o n y J a n e t o s T h e H . J o h nH e i n z I I I
Peter KareivaRoger KaspersonKishan Khoday
Christian KoernerKasper KokPushpam Kumar
E r i c F . L a m b i n U n i v e r s i t eCatholique de LouvainPaulo Lana Universidade Federal doParanáRodel D. Lasco
Patrick Lavelle VI/IRD
Louis Lebel Chiang MaiMarcus Lee
Rik LeemansC h r i s t i a n L é v ê que I n s t i t u t d e
Recherches pour le développement
Marc LevyLiu Jian
Liu JiyuanMa Shiming
Georgina MaceJens Mackensen
Mai Trong Thong
Ben Malayang IIILos Baños
Jean-Paul Malingreau
Anatoly MandychPeter John Marcotullio
E d u a r d o M a r o n e C e n t r o d eEstudos do MarHillary M. Masundire
Robert M. MayJames Mayers
Alex F. McCalla
Jacqueline McGlade
Gordon McGranahan
Tony A.J. McMichael
Jeffrey A. McNeely IUCN
Monirul Q. Mirza
Bedrich Moldan CharlesDavid Molyneux
Harold A. Mooney
Sanzhar Mustafin
Constancia Musvoto
Shahid Naeem
134
Nebojša Naki´cenovi´c
Gerald C. Nelson Ill inois -Urbana-Champaign
Niu Wen-Yuan
Ian NobleSigne NybøMasahiko OhsawaW i l l i s O l u o c h - K o s u r aNairobi
Ouyang Zhiyun
Stefano PagiolaCheryl A. PalmJyoti K. Parikh
Anand Patwardhan
Ankur Patwardhan
Jonathan Patz
Daniel Pauly
Steve PercyHenrique Miguel Pereira
Reidar PerssonGarry D. Peterson McGill
Gerhard Petschel-Held
Ina Binari Pranoto
Robert Prescott-Allen
Rudy RabbingeKilaparti Ramakrishna
P. S. Ramakrishnan JawaharlalNehruPaul RaskinCiara Raudsepp-Hearne
Walter V. Reid
Carmen Revenga
Belinda Reyers
Taylor H. Ricketts
Janet RileyClaudia Ringler
Jon Paul Rodriguez
Jeffrey M. Romm
Sergio RosendoUriel N. Safriel
Osvaldo E. SalaCristián Samper
Neil Sampson
Robert Scholes
Mahendra Shah
Alexander Shestakov
Anatoly Shvidenko
Henk Simons
David SimpsonNigel Sizer
Marja Spierenburg
Bibhab Talukdar
Mohamed Tawfic Ahmed
Pongmanee Thongbai
David TilmanThomas P. Tomich
Ferenc L. Toth
Jane K. TurpieA l b e r t S . v a n J a a r s v e l d
StellenboschDetlef van Vuuren
Joeli VeitayakiSandra J. Velarde
Rodrigo A. Braga Moraes VictorSão Paulo City Green Belt BiosphereReserve - Forest InstituteErnesto F. Viglizzo
Bhaskar ViraCharles J. Vörösmarty
Diana Harrison Wall
Merrilyn Wasson
Masataka Watanabe
Robert T. WatsonT h o m a s J . W i l b a n k s O a kRidge Meryl Williams
Poh Poh WongStanley Wood
Ellen Woodley TerralinguaAlistair Woodward
Anastasios Xepapadeas
Gary Yohe WesleyanYue Tianxiang
Maria Fernanda Zermoglio
Zhao Shidong
Monika B. Zurek
135
José SarukhánUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de
MéxicoAnne Whyte Mestor Asso-ciates Ltd.
Antonio Alonso ConcheiroAnalítica Consultores AsociadosJoseph Baker
Arsenio Balisacan
Fikret Berkes
Julia CarabiasGerardo Ceballos
Robert Costanza
Marian S. de los Angeles
Navroz K. Dubash
Faye DuchinJeremy S. Eades
Mohamed A. El-Kassas
Paul R. Epstein
Jorge D. Etchevers Colegiode PostgraduadosExequiel Ezcurra InstitutoNacional de EcologíaNaser I. FaruquiChristopher Field
Blair Fitzharris OtagoGilberto Gallopin
Peter Gardiner Indepen-dent consultantM a r i o G i a m p i e t r o I s t i t u t oNazionale di Ricerca per gli Alimentie la Nutrizione
Andrew Githeko
Allen Hammond
Marc J. HershmanBrian John Huntley
Pedro R. Jacobi Universidadede São PauloPavel KabatRoger KaspersonRobert W. KatesTony La Viña
Sarah LairdSandra Lavorel Université JosephFourierNeil A. Leary
Kai LeeAriel E. Lugo
Yuzuru MatsuokaRichard Moles Limerick
Fran MonksPatricia Moreno Casasola
M o h a n M u n a s i n g h eMunasingheGerald C. Nelson Ill inois -Urbana-Champaign Valery M. Neronov
Shuzo Nishioka
Richard B. Norgaard
Bernadette O’Regan Limer-ick León OlivéGordon OriansStephen PacalaChristine PadochJan Plesnik
Ravi Prabhu
Jorge Rabinovich LaPlataVictor RamosDavid J. Rapport
Robin S. Reid
Ortwin RennFrank Rijsberman
Agnes C. Rola
Jeffrey M. Romm
Cherla B. Sastry
Marten SchefferKedar Lal Shrestha
Bach Tan Sinh
Otton SolisAvelino Suárez Rodríguez
Jatna SupriatnaDanLing Tang
Holm Tiessen GoettingenHebe M.C. Vessuri
Angela de L. Rebel lo WagenerPontificia Universidade Catolica doRio de Janeiro
Wang RusongWolfgang Weimer-Jehle
Philip WeinsteinT h o m a s J . W i l b a n k s O a kRidge
Xu Jianchu
Michael D. Young
Linxiu Zhang
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