Education institute2012techforecast

transcript

Stephen Abram

Gale Cengage Learning

Education Institute

Sept. 17, 2012

2012 Technology ForecastDriving Forces for Change

Library Megatrends

Digitization’s real impact – non-fiction

Format

Print, ePUB, PDF, Kindle, etc. etc.

CD, DVD, USB, etc. etc.

Streaming

Licenses, Open Access, Creative Commons, etc. etc.

eBooks

eJournals

eContent

Copyright Issues (NatGeo, Tasini, TPP, SOPA, etc. etc.)

Author Lawsuits

Citation fragmentation

Content Fragmentation

Challenging the concept of the ‘book’

• Text

• Links and extension experiences

• Graphics & Charts

• Working Formulae

• Interactive Pictures

• Interactive Maps

• Video

• Audio

• Music – book scores

• Gamification

• Deep Data Mining

• Assessments

• Etc. etc.

Beyond Text

Cloud(s)

Device dependencies

Formats (e.g. Kindle)

Amazon

ADVICE . . .

Walled Gardens

Next Generation Textbooks

eLearning – object componentization

Learning Management Systems

Cohort Learning Environments

Presentation Systems

Virtual Conference Environments

Personal Learning Environments

Collaboration Software and environments

Freelearning

Learning Object Diversification

Teens / Post-Millennials

Millennials

Other demographics

Markets driven by the walled gardens (devices, search engines, software, retailers, schools)

Business versus Consumer

The Device Divide

Mobility

End User Fragmentation

Display versus List

• Consumer Search

• Specialized Search

• Professional Search

• Semantic, Sentiment, Suggestion Search etc.

• Mobile search

• Social search

• Visual Search

• Augmented Reality

• SEO

• SMO

• Content Spam

• Geo-location

Search Fragmentation

The Contradiction: device dependency and divorce

• Feature Phones

• Smartphones

• Tablets

• Laptops

• Desktops

• Gaming stations

• Television

• E-Readers

• Internet of Things

• Browsers

Technology Fragmentation

The polarization of professional discussion

Black and White

Dogmatic vs. Professional positions on: eBooks, access, copyright, etc.

Black & White

Recognize key shifts

Public Libraries

Academic Research Libraries

Community College Libraries

School Libraries

Specialized Libraries

Consortia

Trends Differ by Library Sector

Recommendations (LibraryThing for Libraries, BiblioCommons, BookPsychic (Portland PL)

eBook issues

Community Glue

Economic Impact

Patron-driven acquisitions

Experience Portals

Programs

Partnerships

Education and Learning

Literacy of all kinds

Public Libraries

eLearning

Repositories

Content Archipelagos

LibGuides

Patron-driven acquisitions

Information Fluency

Demarcation between Undergrad, Grad and Faculty/Staff strategies

Copyright compliance

E-Coursepacks and e-Reserves

Strategic budgeting

Partnerships

Academic Research Libraries

Information Literacy

Distance education and eLearning

Textbooks, Reserves, Coursepacks, e-all

Mobility

Collections for new degrees and certifications

Community College and Undergrad

Common Core

21st Century Learning

Future of the textbook

Scaffolded Information Literacy / Fluency

Filters

Staff and Faculty relationships

Classroom pages

School Libraries

Intranets

MS SharePoint

Relationship building

Embedded Librarianship

Social and Professional Positioning, Reputation and Awareness

Specialized Libraries

DPLA (US based, global impact)

Library Renewal

Europeana

EveryLibrary (US Advocacy PAC)

OCLC Linked Data

3M e-books

Califa / Douglas County initiatives

Cloud initiatives

Consortia

Where are the real opportunities?

What strategic pilots and interventions are needed?

So what are the impacts of the key trends?

QR Codes versus Near Field Communication (NFC)

eLearning and Personal Learning Environments (PLEs)

Mobility – concept of place

HTML, HTML5, Apps, etc.

Smartphones, Tablets, Laptops, Desktops

Internet of Things, Intelligent Appliances

Retro-conversions: CD, DVD, Espresso Book Machines, 3D Printing

E-Readers versus Tablet reading

Augmented Reality

Gamification versus Gaming

Payments: Square, NFC, MTML5, Apps

It’s a long list . . .

Post processing tools and literacy

LibGuides and Webliography

Information Portals . . . Knowledge Portals . . . Experience Portals . . .

Smart Rooms . . . Smart Houses . . . Smart Classrooms

Open Access – free, fee, models and accessibility . . . Archipelagos

Mobile versus Landline . . . Decline of the shared phone

Television versus DVD versus Streaming

eBooks evolution – Fiction and Non-Fiction

Collaboration versus Social Sites and software

Consumer versus Professional Search . . . The divorce

Library Collaboration and Cooperation – The Cloud

A longer List . . .

End user diversification – tech Luddites versus zealots

Device literacy . . . Information Literacy . . . Information Fluency . . . Actual work

Globalization of copyright and information / intellectual tools

Geo-tagging and geo-location

Contextual advertising in books and places heretofore unconsidered

Advanced behavioural analytics and impact and satisfaction measures

3D Printing as a service

A long list …

Publishing Industry Changes• Liquid books

• Multimedia embedding

• The beyond text hybrid ‘book’ aimed at learning, work, or entertainment

• Long period of format fragmentation

• Walled gardens and exclusives in some sectors – more retail stressors

• Bestselling ‘Author’ power plays

• eTextbooks and the role of digitally wrapped 20th century solutions

• Rights wars among big players – Apple, Amazon, B&N, and publishers who didn’t exist as publishers in 1999

• Large library acquisition consortia & alliances

• Giant lawsuits

• TPP, ACTA, WIPO, etc.

• Movement to less ownership and more usage based models

• Print on Demand (EBM Kodak announcement)

A longer List . . .

At least in the near future:

• True deep federated search retrieval versus decent source discovery

• Deep Holographs and Holodecks

• Machine language translation

• Android-like Robots

• Self driving cars

• Google glasses

• Death of libraries or the decline of librarians

Not ready for primetime

Grocery Stores

Cookbooks, Chefs . . .

What is a meal in library end-user or research, and learning terms?

Let’s think

Think: Are you thinking food, courses, days, weekly plan, or nutrition overall?

Library Space

Community expectations

First Impressions

Cleanliness

Retail models

Displays (return carts, colour blocking, …)

Signage

Smart Rooms

Experience Commons

Community Commons

Boundaries

Parking lots and the skirts as public programming space

Street fairs

Partnerships

Gardens

Library Space Concerns

The new bibliography and

collection development

KNOWLEDGE PORTALS

KNOWLEDGE,LEARNING,

INFORMATION &RESEARCHCOMMONS

What are the real issues?Craft versus Industrial Strength

Pilot, Project, Initiative versus Portfolio Strategy

Hand knitted prototypes versus Production

e.g. Information Literacy initiatives

Discovery versus Search versus Deep Search

eLearning units

Strategic Analytics

Value measures

Behaviours

Be More Open to the Users’ Path

What Would You Attempt If You Knew You Would Not Fail?

My Humble Recommendations Focus on the user, I mean really

Pilot and experiment with mobile social cohorts

Classes (mobile training or extended learning)

Reading cohorts and book clubs (LibraryPsychic and BiblioCommons)

Patron-driven acquisition strategies

Fundraising innovation

Meetings and conferences - webinars

My Humble RecommendationsActively lobby and educate to ensure that the emerging mobile ecosystem supports the values and principles of librarianship for balance in the rights of end users for use, access, learning and research.

Support vendors and laws to be as agnostic as possible by ensuring that, as far as possible your services and content offerings support the widest range of devices, formats, browsers, and platforms.

eLearning

Mobile

Distant

Get to where the user is.

My Humble Recommendations

Design for frictionless access using such opportunities as geo-IP and mobile ready websites

Test everything in all browsers – mobile or not – all devices.

Invest in usability research aimed at the user experience and test and learn from it and share your learning.

Don’t prioritize the librarian experience first

Watch key developments in major publishing spaces – retail, kiddy lit, textbooks, e-learning, fiction, etc. Sport the differences and opportunities

My Personal Hobby Horses

This is an evolution not a revolution

The REAL revolution was the Internet and the Web.

The hybrid ecology is winning in the near term for operating systems and content formats.

This is good since competition drives innovation and we’re in a Renaissance not an end game right now.

Engage in critical thinking not raw criticism. Be constructive.

Critical thinking is not part of dogma, technolust, or religious fervor or fan boy behavior.

My Personal Hobby Horses This is an evolution not a revolution

Perfectionism will not move us forward at this juncture.

Really understand the digital divide and remove your economic and social class blinkers

Get real about teens and Boomers

Get over library obsession with statistics and comprehensiveness.

Get excellent at real measurements, sampling and understanding impact and satisfaction. (Analytics, Foresee, Pew)

My Personal Hobby Horses

This is an evolution not a revolution We need to revisit the concept of preservation, archives, repositories, and conservation from an access and linked data view. Check out new publishing models like Flipboard. Watch for emerging book enhancements and other features that will challenge library metadata, selection policies, and collection development.

The power of libraries

SmellyYellowLiquid

Appeal?

Consider the Whole Experience

Until the lion learns to write her own story, the story will always be from the perspective o the hunter not the hunted.

Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets

Cengage Learning (Gale)Cel: 416-669-4855

stephen.abram@cengage.comStephen’s Lighthouse Blog

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