Emeseh presentation

transcript

Effect of Climate Change on Africa and Its People: Multiple Stress Factors

Dr Engobo EmesehDepartment of Law and Criminology

Aberystwyth University

United Kingdom

ege@aber.ac.uk

4th April 2014Africa-Wales Climate Change

Conference, Machynlleth

Climate Change and Africa “Africa is one of the most vulnerable

continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity”

IPCC 2007, 4th Assessment Report, Chapter 9

A vulnerable Continent

“All its regions - from the flood prone coastal regions, to the more drought susceptible semi-arid and arid Sahel and Saharan regions- are fragile and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.”

Africa and Climate Vulnerability- Factsheet ™ By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people projected to be

exposed to increased water stress. ™Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%

with implications for food security and malnutrition Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea level rise will

affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. By 2080, an increase of 5 to 8% of arid and semi-arid land in Africa

is projected under a range of climate scenarios . ™ The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5 to 10% of

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Report. Summary for Policy Makers, IPCC, 2007

Physical Factors Economic Factors

Poverty Dependence on primary sectors

e.g- agriculture is the economic foundation of many countries, employing about 60% of the population (especially those in the rural areas) and accounting for about 30% of GDP

Capacity Deficits and Institutional/Governance Challenges

Multiple Stresses- Internal

Stressors- External

Global Pressures Climate Change mitigation/Energy Security

Bio- fuels Global Food Security

“Land grabs”

Case Study- 2012 Floods in Nigeria Nigeria

In West Africa Population- 150 million Climatic Zones- varied

Worst in decades From early July 2012 – late November 2012 Flooding in most states in the country 7.7 Million affected, over 2.1 million

displaced, 5,800 injured, and 363 people killed.

2012 Flood – Most Affected States

4th April 2014

Trofani

Agbere

Elemebiri

Africa-Wales Climate Change Conference, Machynlleth

Floods in Bayelsa State-

7 out of the 8 LGAs affected 355 Communities affected

All areas along major river banks were submerged. 42,683 houses affected 800,000 persons were directly or indirectly

affected 4,005 fish farms destroyed

35 deaths Illnesses due to contaminated sources of drinking Widespread displacement

E.g. the Federal University was forced to evacuate their campus and shut for 2 months

Impacts

Over 85% of agricultural land Food crops completely destroyed 4,005 fish farms destroyed Equipment (fishing, farming) destroyed or lost

Infrastructure Roads, Bridges, Schools…

Public, Business and Residential Properties

Impacts (2)

Aerial View of Trofani Community

09/04/23

A completely submerged house in Igbogene

Flood Defence ??

09/04/23

Sagbama LG Council Secretariat Complex

09/04/23

Rescuing some personal properties in Biseni

09/04/23

A Relief Camp for Displaced Persons

09/04/23

Displaced mother and her children

09/04/23

Another victim in Azikoro Village

09/04/23

Yet another in Azikoro, Yenagoa

09/04/23

Aerial view of a flooded plantation in Elebele

On-The-Spot Assessment by NEMA Officials

09/04/23

Collapsed Imiringi Bridge

09/04/23

A damaged section of Trofani Road

09/04/23

Natural Factors Physical, Climate change?...,

Socio/Economic Factors Land Use Patterns, Environmental Degradation, Poverty,

Livelihoods, housing…External

Upper Riparian States water releases from the Lagdo Reservoir in Cameroun,

Contributory Factors

Responses

Disaster Management and Adaptation Relevant Factors

Costs Capacity Local Knowledge

Institutional Factors

Multiple Institutions/Agencies Input from various ministries/departments

Environment, Agriculture, Planning, Forestry, Transport, Health, Housing, Water, etc.

Monitoring/enforcement Clear lead role?

conflicts/overlaps Coherent Policy/Strategy?

THANK YOU

Emeseh presentation

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