Energy Efficiency: How Much Can We Count On? And from What? · Historical Trend and Baseline Growth...

transcript

Energy Efficiency:How Much Can We Count On?And from What?

National Council of State Legislators Energy Efficiency Institute

Karen George and Ellen PetrillElectric Power Research Institute

June 24, 2008

Agenda: How much energy efficiency can we count on? And from what?

1. Utility-sponsored energy efficiency and dynamic energy management RD&D at EPRI

2. EPRI-EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study

3. Impact of Technology R&D

The Electric Power Research Institute

• RD&D consortium for power industry founded in 1973

• Independent, nonprofit

• 186 member organizations

• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC and Knoxville, TN

– Laboratory facilities inKnoxville, Charlotte and Lenox, MA

• Full spectrum industry coverage– Nuclear

– Generation

– Environment

– Power Delivery & Utilization

Energy Efficiency Research, Development and Deployment

Electricity Consumption…Historical Trend and Baseline Growth Forecast

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Growth Rate = 7.8%(1950 – 1973)

Growth Rate = 2.3%(1974 – 2007)

Growth Rate = 1.05%(2008 – 2030)

Baseline Forecast*

* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Preliminary Results (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)

Objective – Get the “Green Area” to be as Efficient as Possible

EPRI’s Living Laboratory

Evaluating and testing energy efficiency technology

Advancing the Use of Smart and Efficient Devices

Lighting

Programmable Communicating Thermostats

Direct EnergyFeedback Devices

Heat Pumps

Programmable Communicating Thermostats

• Can transmit and receive information

• Customer can program remotely, so more convenient

• Customer energy management, including participation in demand response

• Utility program load shifting ranges from 1 kW to 3 kW

• Issues: cost, lack of standards, integration, customer behavior

Energy Savings from Direct Energy Use Feedback

• Wide range of results; from zero to >20%

• 6.5% average in Hydro One 529-home, 2.5-year study (Mountain, 2006)

• Self-selected samples, differences in study design make results difficult to apply to different locations and populations

Why Heat Pump Water Heaters

• Lower energy use (reduce energy use by 50% or more)

• Lower peak electrical demand (reduce WH peak diversified elec. demand by 50% or more)

• Free cooling & dehumidification byproduct

Heat Pump Example: Residential Water Heating Adoption Issues

•HPWH initial cost usually much higher

• Installation – Plumber vs. HVAC contractor

•Awareness•Lack of marketing•Size and reliability•Maintenance infrastructure lacking

Eco Cute HPWH

• Energy efficient heat pump system– Heats water to 900C (higher

COP with higher delta T)– Heating load shifted to night

as per TOU rates• Utilizes natural refrigerant – CO2

– Ozone depletion potential of zero

– Global warming potential of 1/1730

– No toxic or inflammable gas (no potential for fires)

Eco Cute HPWHs in Japan – History and Shipments

• Developed by TEPCO, CRIEPI and DENSO in late 90s

• First commercial system announced in 2001

• 350,000 units shipped in FY 2006• Cumulative total of 830,000 by end

of FY 2006/07• Japanese Government goals – 5.2

million units (cumulative) by FY 2010

• 18 manufacturers for residential application

• 15 manufacturers for commercial applications

Data: Courtesy of TEPCO

Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems

• Multisplit ductless system• Refrigerant flow to each evaporator• Simultaneous heating and cooling• Efficiency improvement up to 40%,

but needs more testing and market development in U.S.

• Individual zone control– Keeps running cost at minimum by

controlling each zone individually• Comfort

– Very good room temperature control (±1deg F)

– Better dehumidification by running compressor continuously with minimum speed

• Refrigerant flow control is the heart of the system

Potential Applications – Especially with Ice Storage

• Multiple zones requiring individual control– Hotels, motels, condominiums– Hospitals– Strip malls– Office buildings

• Possible to sub-meter energy usage– Easy to combine with ice-

storage system– Potential for demand response

Ice Make

Old System

Direct Cooling

Ice Melt

Ice Make

Avoided!!

Ice Make

Old System

Direct Cooling

Ice Melt

Ice Make

Avoided!!

Making PC and Server Power Supplies More Efficient

Climate Savers InitiativeComputer Power Supplies

Analyzing Growth of Consumer Electronics

PLASMA TV

42”250W

27”100W

Consumes 2.5x more energy

SET TOP BOX

2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a

refrigerator

Trends in Consumer Electronics - Set-Top Box

• A Set-Top box consumes 30W of power• Average annual energy consumption is 263 KWHr, which is nearly

the same as the annual energy consumption of 36” CRTs, 267 KWHr• Approximately eight 220-MW power plants needed to meet growth

STB demands (from 2004 to 2009)

30W, 100% duty cycle in a year

Agenda…

1. RD&D at EPRI

EPRI – EEI Joint Energy Efficiency Study

Analyze potential U.S. energy efficiency savings between 2008 and 2030• Detailed micro-economic model based

on equipment stock turnover

• Comprehensive database of energy efficiency technologies and measures

• Calibrated with opinions of 50+ industry experts, spanning utilities, regulators, government agencies, and NGOs

Steps to Becoming More Energy Efficient…

Compliance with Efficiency Mandateson Books as of 2007

Consumers Respond to Technology Improvements

and Market Effects(no utility/govt. programs)

Market – DrivenEfficiency [2]

[1] Compliance with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption

Codes & Standards [1]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Consumption…Impact of Codes & Standards and Market-Driven Efficiency

In 2030…

• Market-driven Efficiency[1] ~ 5% savings*

• Codes & Standards[1] ~ 18% savings*

Codes &Standards[1]

Market-driven[1]

* Relative to Baseline ForecastConsumers• Buy

products/build-ings that comply with efficiency mandates

• Respond totechnology improvementsand market effects

[1] Definitions on Slide 11

Baseline Forecast *

* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)

Compliance with with Efficiency Mandates

Consumers Respond toTechnology Improvements

and Market Effects

Utility & Govt. ProgramsEncourage

Increased Adoption

AchievablePotential [3]

[1] Compliance with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption[3] Additional savings through utility energy efficiency programs; range bounded by realistic and maximum achievable potential. Limited to technologies that are economically-feasible, subject to consumer choice.

Electricity Consumption…Achievable Potential Electricity Savings

In 2030…

• Achievable Potential [1] ~ 8.5% to 14%

• Savings of ~ 424 to 700 Billion kWh=

Achievable Potential [1]

AdditionalElectricitySavings

Utility ProgramsEncourageIncreasedAdoption

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

[1] Definitions on Slide 13

Realistic ~ 8.5%Max ~ 14%Baseline Forecast *

* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)

Agenda…

1. EPRI’s Energy Efficiency Program

Consumers Complywith Efficiency Mandates

Consumers Respond toTechnology Improvements

and Market Effects

Utility/Govt. Programs Encourage

Increased Adoption

AchievablePotential [3]

Technology R&D

[1] Consumers comply with minimum building codes & equipment efficiency standards mandated by federal or state law[2] Consumers respond, without intervention of utility programs, to market-driven improvements in technology efficiency, price effects, and other market factors that impact energy consumption[3] Additional savings through utility energy efficiency programs; range bounded by realistic and maximum achievable potential. Limited to technologies that are economically-feasible, subject to consumer choice.

Electricity Consumption…Technical Potential Electricity Savings

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Achievable Potential [1]

Technical Potential

Technical PotentialConsumers adopt the most efficient commercially available technologies, regardless of cost

Baseline Forecast *

* Based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sectors)[1] Definitions on Slide 13

Hyper-Efficient Technologies

Heat Pump Water Heaters

Variable Refrigerant FlowAir Conditioning

Ductless Residential Heat Pumps and Air Conditioners

Hyper-EfficientResidential Appliances

LED Street andArea Lighting

Efficient Data Centers

Challenges to Increasing Efficiency?

• R&D Investments

• Demonstration and Deployment

• Technologies Proven, but Not Commercialized

• Manufacturability and Cost

• Smart Grid Solutions

Implications of study results

• Need to consider all opportunities to use electricity more efficiently . . . No Single Solution!

– Need policy makers to support RD&D

– Need aggressive codes and standards to increase the efficiency of electronic loads

– Need to develop new end-use technologies that are “hyper-efficient” compared to today’s devices

– Need to develop and deploy smart grid solutions to provide dynamic interactions

– Need to develop end-to-end efficiency solutions across the entire power system

End-to-End Energy Efficiency R&DThe Full Portfolio…

•Generation•Transmission & Distribution – GreenCircuitsTM

•End-use Energy EfficiencyEPRI Engaging the Industry to Develop

an End-to-End Energy Efficiency Framework

Energy Efficiency – End to End

100coal electricity

~ 65% loss ~ 7% loss

Generation Transmission & Distribution

electricity

End Use

EPRI Engaging the Industry to Developan End-to-End Energy Efficiency Framework

Generation, Delivery and Utilization –Opportunities to Improve Efficiency Across the Electricity Chain

Concept of showing power grid efficiency using color spectrumAnimated

% ofElectricityGenerated

Achieving the Power Delivery System of the Future:Integrating Two Infrastructures

Electrical Infrastructure

“Intelligence” Infrastructure

The Smart GridOne Integrated Process

Integration and a Smart Grid

EfficientBuildingSystems

UtilityCommunications

DynamicSystemsControl

DataManagement

DistributionOperations

DistributedGeneration& Storage

Plug-In Hybrids

SmartEnd-UseDevices

ControlInterface

AdvancedMetering

Consumer Portal& Building EMS

Internet Renewables

Electric Transportation Program

1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles• Vehicle testing and demonstration • Li Ion battery development and

evaluation• Environmental and economic impacts

2. Non-road electric transportation• Electric lift trucks, ground support

equipment, truck stop electrification, sea and air port electrification

3. Infrastructure• Smart charging of plug-in hybrids• Codes and standards• Analysis of system impacts

EPRI and its utility members comprise the largest and most experienced ET effort in North America.

Auto Industry Interest in PHEVs Accelerating Rapidly

Ford Escape PHEV Saturn Vue PHEV

Toyota Prius PHEV Prototype

PHEV Ford F-550Trouble Truck

(Eaton, Ford, EPRI)

PHEV Dodge Sprinter(EPRI & Daimler AG)

Chevrolet Volt EREV(Extended Range EV)

Environmental Assessment of PHEVsA Joint Study by EPRI and NRDC

• First comprehensive study of the energy, climate, and air quality impacts of large scale PHEV adoption

• Results:1) Moderate improvements in

overall air quality2) Significant CO2e, petroleum

reductions– 160 – 600 million tons/yr– 3-4 million barrels per

day by 20503) Impact to utility sector is

modest—total capacity expansion 1.2 – 4.6% between 2010 – 2050

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

house Gas Emission

ductions (million metric tons)

Low PHEV Share Medium PHEV Share High PHEV Share

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Annual Electric Sector Energy

(million GWh)

Low PHEV Med PHEV High PHEV No PHEVs

12¢ per mile2¢ per mile

(1¢ per mile off-peak)

Electricity Provides Lower Operating Costs

Actions to Overcome Barriers to Energy Efficiency and Dynamic Energy Management

• Consumer education and understanding

• Support for research and development—and demonstrations

• Adopt, implement and enforce building codes and appliance standards

• Create sustainable utility business models for energy efficiency

• Recognize energy efficiency as an energy resource

Contacts:

Ellen Petrill, Director, Public/Private Partnerships, EPRIPalo Alto, CAepetrill@epri.com650-855-8939

Karen George, Energy Efficiency Analytics and Technology Transfer, EPRI, Boulder, COkgeorge@epri.com303-385-0315

Energy Efficiency: How Much Can We Count On? And from What? · Historical Trend and Baseline Growth...

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