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Economic Crisis: Effects in Colombia
Braulio AnguloLina Oviedo
Catalina Carmona
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
1. General Concepts
Origen Historial Data 2. Colombia
Effects
3. Industry sector and the crisis
CONTENS
Economic Crisis
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
• WORLD CRISIS: TWO WAVES
August 2007: The housing bubble burst in the United States
September – December 2007: The Fed lowers interest rates
January – September 2008: The crisis extends to the overall financial sector
September 2008: It is the breaking point. Lehman Brothers fail
It triggers a crisis of confidence in the financial sector
October – December 2008: The governments of developed countries announced fiscal stimulus packages
January 2009: Developed countries officially entering recession
February 2009: The U.S. Congress approves the fiscal stimulus package
FIRST WAVE
SE
CO
ND
WA
VE
Loss of briefcases in Europe generates the investors' aversion to invest in emergent countries
The hit countries are the clerks of it USES.
It decreases the growth. Devaluation of the rate of change to adjust external bills.
Economic Crisis
Economic Crisis
• ARE WE PREPARED?
Execution of the Banks of the regulations.
Invigoration of the patrimony of the
banks.
Improvement internal processes of
administration of risks.
Consolidation of the system: Those
survived but strong.
Politics of Independence of the Main
Houses.
Not existence of speculative bubbles.
Comfortable situation of liquidity.
Moderate Fiscal deficit.
It appraises of Flexible Change.
Closed economy.
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
OUR STRENGTHS
Economic Crisis
• ARE WE PREPARED?
OUR WEAKNESSES
Rigid, slow and antiquated economy:
Strong blow = Long recovery.
Closed: Adjust of the demand it is
but traumatic.
There are not structural measures.
There was not saving in the upward
part of the cycle.
The shy measures generate distrust.
Exports: High dependence
Pyramids
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
World Trade, World, Latin America and Colombia: Tendency Line
Economic Crisis
Bankrupt Restructured0
5
10
15
20
25
30
200822009
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
FIRMS DECLAREDT BANCKRUPT 2008 VS 2009
Economic Crisis
Const
ruct
ion
Min
ing
Finan
cial
Socia
l ser
vice
s
Elect
ricity
, Gas
and
it D
ilute
s
Trans
port
Agricu
ltura
l
Trade
Indu
stry
Man
ufac
ture
r-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 16.8
10.2
4.3
0.5 0.1
-1.2 -1.8-3.9
-10.2
Annual percentage change of PIB by economic sectors 2008/II Vs 2009/II
Perc
enta
ge v
ari
ati
on
Fuente: DANE- Dirección de Síntesis y Cuentas Nacionales
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Behavior of the Manufacturer Industry
Economic Crisis
Beauti
ful and n
ot
stro
ng m
ate
rials
Sugar
geniu
ses
Carp
entr
y fo
r co
nst
ruct
ions
Dri
nks
Oth
er
Chem
ists
Meat
and F
ish
Oth
er
Text
ile P
roduct
s
Poin
t art
icle
s and h
ook
I gla
ze a
nd t
heir
pro
duct
s
Oth
er
indust
ries
manufa
cture
rs
Auto
part
es,
pie
ces
for
vehic
les
Pro
duct
s of
Rubber
Self
-dri
ven v
ehic
les
Chass
is
Pro
duct
s of
Iron a
nd S
teel
Oth
er
wooden o
ne
Oth
ers
of
Impre
ssio
n
-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050 41.3
15.56.6 6.5 4.9 3.7
-21.8 -23.8 -24.3 -25 -25.8 -29.6 -31.1 -33.2-37.5 -37.9 -41.2
Main annual variations of the real production according to activity manufacturer (January – Jule 2008 /2009)
Perc
enta
ge v
ari
ati
on
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Fuente: DANE- Dirección de Síntesis y Cuentas Nacionales
Economic Crisis
THE CRISIS IN COLOMBIAARE WE PREPARED TO FACE IT?
• RECOMMENDATIONS
To avoid measures of short term and
populists.
To watch over financial sector-Non
intervention of the BC in adjustment of
Rate of Change.
Attraction of capitals stops after having
overcome the crisis.
Crisis: Opportunity to achieve goals.
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis
THE CRISIS ACCORDING TO ALBERT EINSTEIN
Let's not claim that the things change, if we always do the same. The crisis is the best blessing that him can to persons and countries happen, because the crisis brings progresses. The creativity is born of the anxiety, since the day is born of the dark night. It is in the crisis that he is born the inventive, the discoveries and the big strategies. The one who overcomes the crisis, excels himself to if same without remaining 'overcome'.
The one who attributes the crisis to his defeats and penuries, violent his own talent and respects more to the problems than to the solutions. The real crisis, it is the crisis of the incompetence. The disadvantage of the persons and the countries is the indolence to find the exits and solutions. Without crisis there are no challenges, without challenges the life is a routine, a slow agony. Without crisis there are no merits. It is the crisis where the best thing of each one outcrops, because without crisis all wind is a caress. To speak about crisis is to promote it, and to be quiet in the crisis it is to exalt the conformism. Instead of this, let's work five-peseta coin. Let's finish at once with the only threatening crisis, which is the tragedy of not wanting to fight to overcome it.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
www.banrep.gov.co
www.dpn.gov.co
www.dane.gov.co
Más allá del corto plazo. Revista Dinero: Nº 321, 06 de Marzo de 2009. [Consultado
el 01 de Noviembre de 2009]. Disponible en <http://www.dinero.com/noticias-
editorial/alla-del-corto-plazo/57513.aspx>
Crisis Externa: La segunda Ola. Revista Dinero: Nº 320, 06 de Marzo de 2009.
[Consultado el 01 de Noviembre de 2009]. Disponible en
<http://www.dinero.com/noticias-editorial/alla-del-corto-plazo/57513.aspx>
GOMEZ, Luisa. El mundo en recesión y Colombia estancada este año, según el FMI.
El Tiempo, 23 de Abril de 2009. Pág. 1 – 2
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Radio Santafe. In economic crisis, most affected unions point to new markets. October
10, 2009. Avalaible at :
http://www.radiosantafe.com/2009/10/10/por-crisis economica
-gremios-mas-afectados-apuntan-a-nuevos-mercados/
DANE. PIB. September 2009. Avalaible at: http
://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/pib/presen_PIB_IItrim09.pdf
DANE. PIB. Bogotá D.C. Septiember 24, 2009. Avalaible at:
DANE. news bulletin: Manufacturing. June 2009. Avalaible at: http://
www.dane.gov.co/files/comunicados/cp_pib_iitrim0
http://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/mmm/bol_mmm_jun09.pdf
ENGLISH V– 2009/2
Economic Crisis