ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive...

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ENSEMBLES General AssemblySantander, Spain, 23 October 2008

RT5: Evaluation

Objective: comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses

Evaluation approaches

improvedobservationaldatasets for

Europe

global scale

keyprocesses / phenomena

ands2d forecast

regionalscale

statistics ofextremes

impacts

Europe

(myexpertise)

global scale

keyprocesses / phenomena

ands2d forecast

(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)

regionalscale

(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)

impacts

(links to RT6;refer to

Andy Morse)

Europe

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series

eca.knmi.nl

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km) based on ECA&D daily historical station series

eca.knmi.nl/ensembles

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observationaldatasets (25 and 50 km)

Haylock et al., accepted by JGRscaling issues: interpolation reduces extremes

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)

http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)

400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month

ENSEMBLES-RT5 gridded observational datasets (25 and 50 km)

http://eca.knmi.nl/ensembles (or from RT5 website)

400 registered users,3000 unique website visitors every month

Remaining

• Need a unique name for the gridded dataset

• Guidance on the use of uncertainty information(standard error fields are provided, but not used!)

• Updates (2007, new version with improved station density, Lambert RCM grid flavour)

• Datasets for other variables (slp, snow cover, radiation/sunshine)

global scale

keyprocesses /phenomena

ands2d forecast

(links to RT4,RT1 andRT2A)

GCM metrics

(Prince Xavier, IPSL)

GCM metrics

vertical circulation regimes in tropical eastern Pacific -> double ITCZ syndrome (Bellucci et al., INGV)

S2D forecast skill

(Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF)

(Andreas Weigel, MeteoSwiss)

Remaining

• Integration of evaluation results from RT5, feedback to GCM modelers (Stream 2 idea)

• RT5 contribution to combined weighting GCM/RCM

regionalscale

(links to RT4,RT3 andRT2B)

Representation of extremes in RCMs using indices

Kostopoulouet al. (NOA)

Representation of trends in extremes using indices

Lister et al. (UEA)

Remaining

• RT5 contribution to RCM weighting metrics

• Treatment of extremes in ENSEMBLES across different variables, time scales and spatial scales (next extremes workshop, Riederalp, January 09)

• Impacts perspective on extremes

Impacts perspective

Key question in adaptation strategies (design criteria):

“How to assess probabilities of extremes in a non-stationary climate?”

(May 08 - RT5 workshop in De Bilt organized together with WMO/CLIVAR-ETCCDI)

Applying the non-stationary extreme-value model to precipitation in the Rhine basin (Martin Hanel, KNMI)

ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive...

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