EPD 101 PredictingProfit… Red Angus – EPD 101. EPD 101 Members (Seedstock producers) succeed...

transcript

EPD 101

Predicting Predicting

Profit…Profit…

Red Angus – EPD 101

EPD 101

• Members (Seedstock producers) succeed through enabling the success (profit) of their commercial customers.

• More Reliable EPDs for Seedstock producers result in more reliable genetic products (bulls) for commercial customers.

RAAA RAAA PhilosophyPhilosophy

• Commercial producer is our customerCommercial producer is our customer.

EPD 101

• When the science exists to make a genetic prediction more precise, the science is implemented.

• Genetic Prediction overseen by technical committee – not elected boards…

… EPDs are Science not Politics.

EPD 101

• 50 Year Old Performance Registry 50 Year Old Performance Registry • Open AIOpen AI

• Performance Data in the Show RingPerformance Data in the Show Ring

• Total Herd Reporting (THR)Total Herd Reporting (THR)

• EPDs for Economic Relevance EPDs for Economic Relevance (ERTs)(ERTs)

• What’s ahead?What’s ahead?– Develop Tools to better serve our Commercial Develop Tools to better serve our Commercial

CustomersCustomers

EPD 101

• Red Angus was the industry’s first “performance

registry”

• Since its inception in 1954, RAAA has

required Weaning weights for registration

EPD 101

• 1995 - THR

• 1996 - Stayability EPD

• 1996 - Carcass EPDs

• 2000 - Carcass EPDs include Ultrasound Data

• 2001 - Heifer Pregnancy EPD

• 2002 - Calving Ease EPDs(Direct and Maternal)

• 2004 – Maintenance Energy Requirement EPD

EPD 101

EPD =EPD =Expected Progeny Expected Progeny

DifferenceDifference

EPD 101

Sire A: BW EPD = -1.0 Sire B: BW EPD = 3.5

EPDs predict differences in performance of average progeny of different sires

•EPDs do not predict actual performance

(It doesn’t predict Sire A’s calves will weigh 72#)

•They predict relative performance.

(Sire A’s calves will be on average 4.5 lbs lighter than Sire’s B’s Calves)

EPD 101

B.L.U.P. =B.L.U.P. =Best Linear Best Linear

Unbiased PredictionUnbiased PredictionUtilizes and weighs information from individual animals and their relatives.

• Pedigree/Relatives

• Individual Performance

• Progeny

EPD 101

The Bull is the Genetic Vector…

…also maintains reproductive status of the cowherd

EPD 101

Genetic Change =Genetic Change =Selection Differential x

Heritability

Selection Differential = Difference between existing

cowherd and sire selection(s)

EPD 101

Avg. of Cowherd

YW EPD = 30

Avg. of Sires Used on Cowherd

YW EPD = 60

Selection Differential:

Selection Differential

= 30 lbsYW EPD Example:

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

EPD 101

Genetic Improvement Genetic Improvement Over Time =Over Time =

Selection Differential x Heritability x

Generation Interval

EPD 101

Data and Information Data and Information SystemsSystems

• Collect objective data from member breeders.

• Analyze the data in an unbiased manner. • Provide information from the analysis in the

form of genetic predictions.• Make available decision support software to

aid in the interpretation of the predictions.

EPD 101

A.A. Collect Objective Data Collect Objective Data From Member/BreedersFrom Member/Breeders

Assumption – all breed associations work on the following base regulation:

“All information furnished to the association as a basis for any action by

the association shall be true and correct.”

EPD 101

• Weights

• Adj. Wts

• Ratios

• EPDs

What an animal weighs on a given day – cannot compare because calves are born on different days, and from dams of different ages

Adjusts weights to a common age (205d or 365d) May also adjust for age of dam. Cannot compare across herds b/c of differences in environment, management, etc.

Useful for comparing calves within the same contemporary group only. Can not compare across herds

Useful for comparing across herds, as mating bias, environmental, and management differences are removed by B.L.U.P.

Contemporary GroupContemporary Group

A group of animals that have been exposed to the same environment

and have been given equal opportunity to perform.

Why are proper Why are proper contemporary groups so contemporary groups so

important?important?Ensures that comparisons between

animals are fair and that EPD reflect genetic differences.

Contemporary Group Contemporary Group Sorts:Sorts:

Ownership/workgroup

Weigh Date

Mgt. Code

Feed Code

EPD 101

• Implemented in 1995

• Requires Reporting on:• Production of EVERY Red Angus cow annually• Weaning Performance of EVERY Red Angus calf

• Avoids Selective Reporting of Data on

“only calves good enough to Register”

EPD 101

THR ensures unbiased, reliable genetic predictions (EPDs) .

Eliminates Selection bias…

…because it utilizes Complete Contemporary Group Reporting

EPD 101

Selective Reporting – Growth

EPD 101

Case study (Mallinckrodt et al., 1995)

Complete EPD Incomplete EPD

IDNumProg

ProgenyAverage

NumberReported

SelectedAvg WW Milk WW Milk

1 10 400 5 450 0 0 +6 -2

2 10 500 10 500 +20 -2 +12 +1

EPD 101

AccuracyAccuracy

Relationship between genetic Relationship between genetic prediction & true genetic valueprediction & true genetic value

Low Accuracy Low Accuracy <.40<.40

Low/Medium Accuracy Low/Medium Accuracy .40 - .60.40 - .60

Medium/High AccuracyMedium/High Accuracy .60 .60 - .80- .80

High AccuracyHigh Accuracy > .80> .80

EPD 101

Factors Affecting EPD Accuracy

(Yearling Bulls) • Accuracy of parental EPDsAccuracy of parental EPDs

• Individual data within contemporary groupIndividual data within contemporary group

• Number of contemporariesNumber of contemporaries

• Number/Accuracies of sires represented Number/Accuracies of sires represented within contemporary groupwithin contemporary group

EPD 101

Factors Affecting EPD AccuracyFactors Affecting EPD Accuracy(Proven Sires:)(Proven Sires:)

• Number of ProgenyNumber of Progeny

• Number of Contemporary GroupsNumber of Contemporary Groups

• Size of Contemporary GroupsSize of Contemporary Groups

• Comparison of Progeny to Progeny of Comparison of Progeny to Progeny of Proven Sires (within viable contemporary Proven Sires (within viable contemporary groups)groups)

EPD 101

Accuracy is the Accuracy is the tool to measure tool to measure our confidence in our confidence in a given EPD.a given EPD.

Confidence Range Confidence Range shows expected shows expected range of true range of true genetic value - genetic value - not expected not expected variation in a calf variation in a calf crop.crop.

EPD 101

Med. accuracy sire

High accuracy sire

Low accuracy sire

BW EPD

EPD 101

Low accuracy sire

Med. accuracy sire

High Accuracy sire YW EPD

EPD 101

Possible Change:We expect true genetic value to fall within one standard deviation (2/3) of the time

The other third of the time, true genetic value will fall outside one standard deviation.

The standard deviation varies with different traits and accuracies as presented in the “Possible Change” Table.

EPD 101

• Objectively describe reproduction, growth, maintenance & carcass traits…

• …utilizing the fewest EPDs possible.

EPD 101

• Economically Relevant TraitsEconomically Relevant Traits– have direct economic impact on producer– can be easily quantified in economic terms

EPD 101

Goal: To objectively describe seedstock cattle for

Economically

Relevant Traits.

Red Angus EPDsRed Angus EPDs

EPD 101

Red Angus Genetic Predictions

(EPDs)

GrowthGrowth•Birth WeightBirth Weight•Weaning WeightWeaning Weight• MilkMilk•Total Maternal Total Maternal •Yearling WeightYearling Weight

CarcasCarcasss•MarblingMarbling•RibEye AreaRibEye Area• BackFatBackFat

MaintenancMaintenancee•Maintenance Energy Maintenance Energy

RequirementRequirement

ReproductionReproduction•Calving Ease Calving Ease (CED)(CED)

•Heifer PregnancyHeifer Pregnancy•Daughters Calving Daughters Calving

(CEM) (CEM)

•Stayability (STAY)Stayability (STAY)

EPD 101

IndicatorIndicatorCalving Records

Scrotal Circumference

B.W. & Calving Ease Score

B.F. & R.E.A.

Mature Weight, Milk & BCS

ERTERTStayability

Heifer Pregnancy Rate

Calving Ease

% Retail Product

Cow Maintenance Energy Requirement

EPD 101

Focus on Focus on ReproductionReproduction

……to make a great beef cowto make a great beef cow

It takes more than milk…It takes more than milk…

EPD 101

Beef Replacement Requirements

1. Be 1. Be Born Born UnassistedUnassisted2. Get Bred to 2. Get Bred to Calve as a 2-yr-Calve as a 2-yr-OldOld3. Have Her 13. Have Her 1stst Calf Without Calf Without AssistanceAssistance4. Rebreed to 4. Rebreed to Calve Again in Calve Again in 365 Days365 Days

5. Complete Steps 1-5. Complete Steps 1-4 without extra feed 4 without extra feed or TLCor TLC6. Wean a valuable 6. Wean a valuable calfcalf7. Pass on added 7. Pass on added value Traits to value Traits to OffspringOffspring

8. Repeat Steps 1-8. Repeat Steps 1-7 on an annual 7 on an annual basis.basis.

EPD 101

ProductionProduction is the last word is the last word

in in ReReproductionproduction……

EPD 101

• Calving Ease Direct (CED)– Ability of a calf to be born unassisted

• Heifer Pregnancy (HPG)– Ability to become pregnant to calve as a

two year old

• Calving Ease Total Maternal (CEM)– Ability to have a calf unassisted

• Stayability (STAY)– Ability to remain in the herd producing

EPD 101

All Red Angus Reproductive EPDs are All Red Angus Reproductive EPDs are based on Categorical Measuresbased on Categorical Measures

Continuous –vs- Categorical• Continuous

– Can take on any value within reason

• Categorical– Measure one of two possible outcomes

• Success or Failure

• Yes or No

EPD 101

Inactive at 6Active with progeny at 6

Stayability

OpenPregnantHeifer

Pregnancy

Assisted Calving

Unassisted Calving

Calving EaseCED, CEM

Failure Failure MeasureMeasure

Success Success MeasureMeasureTraitTrait

EPD 101

Calving Calving Ease Ease DirectDirect

Percent difference of Percent difference of

calves unassisted calves unassisted

at birthat birth

CECEDD

EPD 101

Heifer PregnancyHeifer Pregnancy

Percent difference of daughters conceiving to calve Percent difference of daughters conceiving to calve at two years of age.at two years of age.

HPHPGG

EPD 101

Heifer FertilityHeifer Fertility

EPD 101

Age at Puberty

EPD 101

Heifer Fertility

Age at Puberty

HeiferPregnancy

EPD 101

Age at Puberty

HeiferPregnancy

SC EPD

EPD 101

Age at Puberty

HeiferPregnancy

SC EPD

HPG EPD

BIF 2001

EPD 101

Calving Ease Calving Ease MaternalMaternal

• Percent difference Percent difference of daughters of daughters calving unassistedcalving unassisted

CEMCEM

EPD 101

Calving Ease Maternal (CEM)

(1/2)CED EPD + Maternal EPD = CEM EPD

Messmer Julian 9486

8 (CED) + -3 (CEM) = 1 (CEM)

Not published

EPD 101

StayabilityStayability

Percent difference of daughters staying productivePercent difference of daughters staying productive within a herd until six years of agewithin a herd until six years of age

StayStay

EPD 101

GrowtGrowth h TraitsTraits • Birth Weight BW

• Weaning Weight WW

• Yearling Weight YW• Milk Milk• Total Maternal TM

EPD 101

• Birth Weight (BW)– Weight of calf at birth

• Weaning Weight (WW)– 205-day weight of calf at weaning

• Yearling Weight (YW)– 365-day weight of calf

• Milk (MILK)– 205-day weight due to daughter’s milk

• Total Maternal (TM)– 205-day weight of daughter’s calves

EPD 101

Red Angus Genetic Red Angus Genetic TrendsTrends

EPD 101

Challenges

Balancing increased Revenue with Expense of Producing it.

EPD 101

…vs. Maintenance Energy Requirements

EPD 101

Marketing = Environment:Marketing = Environment:

• Background &

sell as yearlings?

• Calf Feds?

• Retained Ownership

• Replacement Females

EPD 101

Maintenance Energy Maintenance Energy RequirementRequirement

The seedstock The seedstock

industry’s First Look at the expense side of ranchers’ profit equation.industry’s First Look at the expense side of ranchers’ profit equation.

EPD 101

What is Maintenance Energy?• The energy

required to sustain body tissues with no net change in body tissues

• Feed required to maintain body weight

EPD 101

Mature Cow Maintenance Energy

• An average of 70% of feed inputs are used for maintenance energy requirements

• Cost of feed inputs represent 40 to 60% of the average annual cow cost

NRC (1996), McGrann (1999), Hughes (1999)

EPD 101

Components of ME EPD• Mature Weight

• Milk Production

• Body Condition Score (BCS)

EPD 101

GrowthMature

Size Maintenance Energy

RequirementsMilk

Visceral

Organ Mass

Growth & Milk Represent Revenue (lbs to sell)…

……but antagonisms existbut antagonisms exist

EPD 101

Mature Weight Genetic Trend

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Birth Year

EPD, lbs

EPD 101

Average Mature Cow Maintenance Energy EPD in Red Angus Cattle

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Birth Year

First Mature Weight Data Collection

EPD 101

Benefits of ME EPD• Select animals that

are better able to maintain body condition score

• Lower annual cost of production

• Improve selection of animals for their production environment

EPD 101

MarblingMarbling Units:Units: marbling marbling

scorescore

Carcass Carcass EPDs:EPDs:

Ribeye Ribeye AreaArea

Units:Units: square square inchesinchesFat Fat

ThicknessThickness Units:Units: inches inches

EPD 101

• Red Angus combines both real-time ultrasound and traditional carcass data into the calculations of carcass EPDs

EPD 101

EPD 101 PredictingProfit… Red Angus – EPD 101. EPD 101 Members (Seedstock producers) succeed...

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