Post on 27-Dec-2015
transcript
Erik RanheimManager Research and Projects
Seatrade Middle East Maritime, Dubai, 4 February 2003
INTERTANKOINTERTANKOInternational Association of Independent Tanker OwnersInternational Association of Independent Tanker Owners
Safe TransportSafe TransportCleaner SeasCleaner Seas
Free CompetitionFree Competition
advocatingadvocating
Issues facing tankers
Middle East essential for tankersSafety performancePRESITIGE accidentPossible consequences
Source: Fearnleys, IEA, INTERTANKO
Seaborne Oil Trade andMiddle East Oil production
8
12.5
17
21.5
4
6
8
10
12
Middle East Oil Prod mbd
Tonne miles
mbd'000bil tm
Control of the tanker fleet
209 29 5458 71
389102 226
93186
1422186 459 235
248
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Handy
Panam
ax
Afram
ax
Suezm
ax
VLCCs
Spot
Period
Oil Company
Source: EA Gibson
Oil companies reducing fleets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1974 1978 1984 1990 1995 1997 1999 2002
ExxonMobil
Chevron/ Texaco
BPAmoco
Shell
Texaco
Mobil
Exxon
Chevron
BP
Amoco
dwt
Cost elements - Gasoline price at the pump
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
USA Japan Germany UK
Long haul freight, $3/bbl
Marketing etc
Oil price $30/bbl
Tax
Cost elements making the: gasoline price:
$ per gallon
Tankers performing well
Accidental oil spill from tankers tonnes spilt per billion tonne mile
transported
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys
Accidental oil pollution from tankers and seaborne oil trade
Bn tonne-miles’000 tonnes
99.995 %safe arrival in 2002
Accidental oil pollution from tankers
0
300
600
900
1990-95 1996-02
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
000 ts spilt
bn tonne-miles
Reduced number of incidents
0
100
200
300
400
500
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
CollisionFire/ExplFounderedHull & MachineryMisc WarGrounded
Tanker Incidents 2001
9%
26% 28%
28%9%
Collision Groundings
Hull&machinery:19 engine8 hull
Fire&Expl.
Misc.
dwt tankers involved :51 below 10,000 29 10-29,999 dwt25 30-99,999 dwt19 Above 100,000 dwt
Age tankers involved :29 built 1970s or earlier40 built 1980s36 built 1990s13 built 2000s, rest unknown
Modernisation tankers
622
51
75 81
9478
49
25 19
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991 1997 End 02 End 07 End 10
SH share (%)
DH share (%)
PRESTIGE
PRESTIGE (Bahamas)
Built 1976, Hitachi Japan for MOC
DWT 81,564
Mare Shipping Liberia/Universe Maritime, Greece,
Member INTERTANKO (79)
Cargo: HFO/SG 0.99
Load port , Ventspils, Latvia
Discharge port, Singapore
Damaged 13 December - Sunk 19 December
Clean record
PRESTIGE – issues
Major spill of heavy fuel oil Initial cause of hull failure? Could the ship haved been
saved - Port of RefugeLiability Arrest of Capt. Mongouras
The credibility of the industry is at again stake
Capt. Mongouras 32 years experience
Source: ABS
ABS, 3 DecNo apparent structural cause has yet been determined
Tanker structure/corrosion
ESP spring 2001, quality of steel replacement?
Storage with HFO containing H2S Ballasting to rectify list,
strongly increased bending moment
Increased stresses due to restart of engine
Forced out to open rough seas
Ownercondition and operation of ship
Class Ensure that the ship in maintaiend to good standards no matter age
Charterers type of cargoselection of ship
Authoritiesport of refugeclean up
P&Iclaims handling
Who is to responsible and who failed?
Overreaction counter-
productive
A sound industry needs
predictable contitions
Identify places of refuge for ships in distress Control of maritime traffic along the coasts Establishment of a supplementary
compensation fund Response capability strenthened Modernisation of the tanker fleet takes place
at a rapid pace
Possible measuresDraft Council Conclusions:
number
Possible measuresDraft Council Conclusions:
Accelerated phasing out of single hull tankers , CAS from age of 15 years
Not accept SH tankers carrying the heaviest grades of oil…
25% target of Port State Control, EMSA, quality, uniformity inspections
0
2040
60
80
100120
140
160
MARPOL
EU proposAL
Phase-out VLCCs
Age phase out EU
No
15 1316 1717 2518 2619 1820 1321 1622 1023 1124 16
25+ 54Total 219
Total 436 ships, 217 DH, average age 10.1 years, orderbook 64
Phase-out Suezmaxes
Age No17 518 1219 1220 521 1322 523 624 225+ 33
Total 93
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
MARPOL
EU
OPA 90
Total 266 ships, 173 DH, average age 9.8 years, orderbook 55
No
0
30
60
90
120
150
180MARPOL
EU
OPA 90
Phase-out 60-119,999 dwt
Age phase out EU
Built
15 116 117 418 819 1820 2321 2022 1623 11924 4525 141
Total 396
Total 780 tankers, 384 DH, average age 13.2 years ,203
No
Proposed EU reg. single-hull tanker phase-out
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
<197
019
7219
7519
7819
8119
8419
8719
9019
9319
9619
9920
0220
0520
0820
1120
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Existing double-hull
Existing single-hull
For delivery
Proposed EU reg.
No No
+5,000 dwt
Prestige Issues
Heavy grades of oil in DH tankers Changing trade patterns Position of IMO threatened Fragmentation regulations - inflexible markets Think before act
INTERTANKOlooking after the interest of the tanker industry
Tanker market stagnating
OPEC/non-OPEC crude oil production 1971-2002
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Mbd
Non-OPEC
OPEC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
America
Europe
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Others
European oil imports by source – 12.5 mbd in 2002
US crude oil production and net crude oil imports1983-2003 (est.), monthly
Source: EIA
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Ja
n-83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
Mb
d
US crude oilproductionUS net crude oilimportsLinear (US netcrude oil imports)Linear (US crudeoil production)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Others/NN
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Taiwan
Korea
China
Tankers sold for recycling by receiving country mil dwt