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Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS:
MANAGEMENTUNDER UNCERTAINTY
& ALTERNATESTABLE STATES
@cboettig
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 1/33
DecisionTheory
Resilience Thinking
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 2/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
1 Introduction
2 Management model: fisheries
3 Decision Theory
4 Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 3/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 4/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State Space
Action (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) Space
Ecological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)
Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic model
Value function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Building blocks
State SpaceAction (Decision) SpaceEcological model (Stateequation)Socio-economic modelValue function
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
State space | Action space
Fish stock size
x
Fishing harvest intensity
h
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ecological model | Economic Model
Stock recruitment function
Xt+1 = Znf(Xn)
Beverton-Holt
f(x) = Ax
1 +Bx
Profit equation
π(x, h) = pmin(x, h)
−(c0 + c1
h
x
)h
x
p price of fishc0, c1 costs
Bellman’s Value function
Vt = maxh
(ThVt+1 + π(xt, ht)e−δ(T−t)
)(1)
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ecological model | Economic Model
Stock recruitment function
Xt+1 = Znf(Xn)
Beverton-Holt
f(x) = Ax
1 +Bx
Profit equation
π(x, h) = pmin(x, h)
−(c0 + c1
h
x
)h
x
p price of fishc0, c1 costs
Bellman’s Value function
Vt = maxh
(ThVt+1 + π(xt, ht)e−δ(T−t)
)(1)
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 8/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 9/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 10/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 11/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 12/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 13/33
DecisionTheory
Resilience Thinking
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 14/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
What could go wrong?
f(x) has some stucturaluncertainty
Policy makers don’t listen tomathematically optimalstrategies
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Resilience thinking approaches
Early warning signals oftipping points
Considering keystakeholders
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 16/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Resilience thinking approaches
Early warning signals oftipping points
Considering keystakeholders
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 16/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Abandon decision theoretic approaches?
No! Synthesize resilience concepts withdecision theories. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 17/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Abandon decision theoretic approaches?
No! Synthesize resilience concepts withdecision theories. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 17/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Sometimes hard to identify the “increase” signal
Carpenter et al. 2011
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 18/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Boettiger &Hastings2012
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 19/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 20/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Decision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 21/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Policy Costs
Policy makers don’t listen to mathematically optimal strategies?
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 22/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Socio-economic optimum strategy
Reality: typical policy
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 23/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Socio-economic optimum strategy
Reality: typical policy
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 23/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
There is a cost to changing policy
we canmodel that. . .
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 24/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Adding costs to changing policy
ΠL1(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 abs (ht − ht−1) (2)
ΠL2(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 (ht − ht−1)2 (3)Πfixed(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2I(ht, ht−1) (4)Πasym(xt, ht, ht−1) = Π0 + c2 max (ht − ht−1, 0) (5)
Where I(a, b) = 0 for a 6= b and I(a, b) = 1 for a = b.
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 25/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Previous Action becomes part of state-space
Previous Action
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 26/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 27/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 27/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 28/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Cost-freeoptimumOptimumunder policycosts
Cost-freestockStock underpolicy costs
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 28/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 29/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 30/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Ignoring political realities leads to worse solutionsReducing policy costs results in better management
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 31/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertainty
But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilities
Modeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter most
More synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Conclusions
Decision theory provides a quantitative way to addresspolicy choices under uncertaintyBut: traditional framework ignores key possibilities thataren’t probabilitiesModeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, andidentify when they matter mostMore synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory isneeded!
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking
Acknowledgements
Image creditsNOAA
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
flickr users gfpeck, saneboy, tranchis
Boettiger et al 2012
Scheffer et al. 2001
Code, lab notebook, and more:http://carlboettiger.info/
Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 33/33