Europa Verkiezingen

transcript

Why citizens don’t vote for Europe

Chris Aalberts

HEBO: European electionswww.chrisaalberts.nl

Why citizens don’t know

what they vote for in Europe

Chris Aalberts

HEBO: European elections

www.chrisaalberts.nl

Rational model of politics

People will… • Follow the media• Get more knowledge• Develop their opinions• Become politically active

Following the media

• Which sources of information do citizens use? • What kind of information is offered?

Two dimensions• Information - entertainment• General - niche audience

Four strategies

Information Enter-tainment

Niche audience

General audience

News media

Newspapers, television news, etc.• General audience• Information

• European elections are not a major issue• News in the last week only• 2004: one story on RTL Nieuws

Popularization

Television talk shows, infotainment, etc.• General audience• Entertainment

• Europe is generally not a topic• Less emphasis on the content• More emphasis on personality, image, etc.

Festivals

I Vote Europe, European Bus Tour, etc.• Niche audience• Entertainment

• Organized because of the elections• Attracts a very specific audience• More or less information

YouTube, Twitter, Hyves, etc.• Niche audience• Information

• Image building of politicians• Attracts a very specific audience as well• More informative than festivals

Which sources are most important?

Information Enter-tainment

Niche audience

General audience

ICTs Festivals

News media Popularization

Knowing politics

Citizens will… • Follow the media…• But they do not offer so much information…

• What kind of knowledge do citizens get? • Some statistics• Short quiz

Knowledge about the EU

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

European Parliament

European Central Bank

Europese Commissie

European Court of Justice

European Council

European Court of Auditors

European Ombudsman

Economic and Social committee

Committee of the Regions

Information before the referendum

January March April May

Heard or read something

Feels uninformed

Short quiz

• Mention five European Commissioners (out of 27 Commissioners)

• Mention five members of the European Parliament (out of 785 members)

For both groups• What are their portfolio?• What are their most important policy

proposals? • Where these good proposals? Why?

Developing opinions

Citizens will… • Follow media that do not offer much

information• Not really get much knowledge

• What kind of opinions do they develop?• Some statistics • A short experiment

Satisfaction with European democracy

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Satisfied with national democracy

Satisfied with European democracy

Perceived effects of the EU

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Loss of jobs

More problems for farmers

Holland will pay more

Less influence of small countries

Increase of (drugs related) crime

Loss of national identity

Less use of the Dutch language

Economic crisis

Experiment (1)

• Survey question (Saris, 1997)

– If the European Parliament becomes more powerful, this will make the national parliament less powerful. Do you think that the European parliament should become more powerful?

– Do not know 24.5%– Yes, give them more power 33.3%– No, do not give them more power 42.2%

Experiment (2)

• Let’s change the question slightly:

– Many problems are international. For example, 50% of the avid rain in the Netherlands comes from abroad. These problems can only be solved by international policies.

– If the European Parliament becomes more powerful, this will make the national parliament less powerful. Do you think that the European parliament should become more powerful?

Experiment (3)

• Question without extra information (no. 1)

• Question with extra information (no. 2)

Becoming active

People will… • Follow media that do not offer much

information• Not really get much knowledge• Not really develop stable opinions

• What effect does this have on participation?• Turnout • Party preferences

Turnout

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

European messages

Two dimensions: • For Europe - against Europe• Easy to understand - difficult to understand

Four strategies

AgainstEurope

In favor of Europe

Easy to understand

Difficult to understand

PVV: For Holland

• Against Europe• Easy to understand

Main points• The EU has been very negative for everyone• The EU is too expensive• The EU has too much influence on everything• There is just too much immigration

D66: Europe, Yes!

• In favor of Europe• Easy to understand

Main points• Europe has been very positive for everyone• International problems can only be solved by

the EU• Holland is stronger because of the EU

PvdA: strong and social

• In favor of Europe• Difficult to understand

Main points• Europe is positive… sometimes• And sometimes… not• Many different ‘small’ issues• Example: gender is passports is discriminatory

for transsexuals

Christenunie/SGP: ?

• Against Europe• Difficult to understand

Main points• Focus on strong supporters who always vote• No clear public campaign• No clear opinions

Who wins?

AgainstEurope

In favor of Europe

Easy to understand

Difficult to understand

D66PVV

VVD CDA

GroenLinks

Christenunie/SGP

Conclusion (1)

• Citizens do not vote• Citizens do not know for whom to vote

This is not surprising• Citizens do not have opinions on Europe• Citizens are uninformed• Media do not provide them with enough

information

Conclusion (2)

Can we blame someone? • Citizens: not interested• Journalists: too much emphasis on ratings• Politicians: not willing to explain Europe

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