Evolution and trends

for the duty free & travel retail industry

————— Alain MaingreaudManaging Director, TFWA

Introduction to TFWA———

The world today: from west to east———

Global trends in travel & aviation———

TFWA experience & sentiments for the industry

Introductionto TFWA

———

Mission ———

“to enable and empower the Duty Free and Travel Retail

industry by providing the opportunities and the tools for brand and market growth.”

TFWA World Exhibition over 5,600 visitors

———

TFWA ASIA PACIFIC & GATE ONE2ONE 2,000 visitors200 exhibitors1,500 brands

———

Conferences & Workshops

The world todayfrom west to east

———

“Bank of England forecasts 'choppy' economic recovery”

BBC News, 11 August 2010

“Joy, pain and double dips”The Economist, 12 August 2010

“Hello America. China's economy overtakes Japan's in real terms”

The Economist, 16 August 2010

E7 to Catch G7 by 2019?E7 = China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey

Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter

GD

P a

t P

PP

s (c

on

stan

t 20

08 I$

)

G7 GDP

E7 GDP

Convergence OvertakingCatch-up

Source: AT Kearney, ‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2009

Emerging retail markets ———

“…reliance on developing countries for future growth is no longer a ‘nice-

to-have,’ but is a necessity.”

Emerging retail markets

Source: AT Kearney,‘Global Retail Development Index,’ 2010

Global trendsin travel & aviation

———

“Multi-spend recovery kick started by developing economies”

Euromonitor International

“Asian Markets Adding Business Travel Spend at Four Times the U.S. Rate”

National Business Travel Association

Global business travel spend

 % Change2009 - 2010

 % Change2010-2014

United States 2.5 % 

2.4 %

China 16.3 %   12.3 %

Japan 6.7 %   2.1 %United Kingdom -0.6 %   8.2 %

France -1.0 %   4.7 %

Italy -2.6 %   4.1 %

Germany -1.0 %   3.8 %

South Korea 21.2 %   7.2 %

Brazil 19.8 %   3.5 %Spain -4.0 %   4.2 %

Source: NBTA , August 2010

“Asia Pacific takes top spot as traffic recovers strongly in 2010. North America slides to third”

Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation

Asia Pacific + 11.5%

Europe - 7.3%

North America - 7.7%

Latin America + 6.9%

Africa + 1.8%

Middle East + 18.4%

World - 0.7%

Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & ACI

Comparative passenger numbers by regionJune 2010 vs June 2008 (year-to-date)

% change YTDJune 2008 > June 2010

Region

Source: IATA

Premium traffic growth by ticket type:Jan-2007 to Jun-2010

(year on year % change)

Source: IATA

Strong growthin Latin America premium travel

TFWA experience & sentiments

for the industry

———

“Cautiously optimistic”IATA

Asia : + 88 %Middle East : + 112 %

Optimistic, with reason

NAM: - 8%

LAC: - 0,5% *

* ACI 2009 figuresSource: Generation

The global industry in 2009

Source: Generation

Year to date in Latin America

Americas + 22,4%

Latin America + 28%

North America + 16%

World + 16.1%

% change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009

Region

Source: Generation

Latin America + 28%

Asia Pacific + 26.3%

Middle east + 18.4%

Africa + 13.6%

North America + 16%

Europe + 4.4%

World + 16.1%

Year to date in Latin America% change 1H 2010 vs 1H 2009

Region

The future as we see it…

Email: a.maingreaud@tfwa.com

Tel: +33 140 740 986

Thank you