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Evolution of animal production in Africa and other emerging markets
Danilo PezoILRI Country Representative in Uganda
African Livestock Conference and Exhibition (ALICE 2014)
Kampala, Uganda, 18th - 20th June 2014
Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS
GLOBAL TRENDS: The Livestock Revolution
• Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries, and will continue to rise
• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
Consumption of livestock productsto 2050
• Globally:An overall increase in per capita daily consumptionof livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014
% change in consumption of animal products:2000–2030
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
843%
%
FAO 2011
Projections of livestock production increases:2000–2050
• In half a century, total livestock commodityproduction is projectedto increase by 92%:
+106% for monogastricmeat (pig and poultry)and poultry eggs
+88% for ruminant meat(cow, sheep, goat, camel,water buffalo)
+85% for milk
• With big regionaldifferences
Herrero et al. 2014
% change in production of animal products:2000–2030
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry meat
Eggs0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ChinaRussiaBrazilIndiaSSAHigh income
%
FAO 2011
Import and export of meat (000s metric tonnes)
2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
SSA IndiaBrazilRussiaChina
Expo
rtIm
port
Beef Pork PoultryFAPRI 2012
8
Production Systems
Monogastric production systems in Africa are in rapid transition to industrial
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 20500%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
smallholderindustrial
Europe Latin America Africa/Middle EastHerrero et al. 2014
Over 30% of African monogastric
production will still be smallholder in 2050
Ruminant production systems
Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meato Europe: 42% mixed temperateo Latin America: 48% mixed humido Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
For milk:o Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems,
regardless of the regiono Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be
in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle East
Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepersare competitive
East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Efficient use of forages results in lower milk production costs • Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Ugandan pig systems• 90% of production in hands of smallholders (< 3 sows or <5
fattening pigs)• Smallholders have lower unit costs• Industrial pig production highly dependent on mixed feeds. • Great opportunities for productivity increases, if diseases (i.e.,
ASF, parasites) are controlled, and farmers have better access to information.
• High demand for pork, and still increasing IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2013
Trajectories of growth for the livestock sectorStrong growthIntensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems
Fragile growthWhere remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification
High growthwith externalitiesIntensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health
MarketsInstitutions
Policies
Animal health★Vaccines★Diagnostics
★Delivery systems
Markets & institutions★New business arrangements
★Good access to markets
Human H & N★Risk- not rule-based
regulations★Controlled zoonoses★Balanced diets
Environment★Improved feed efficiency = < GHGE★Waste management
Feed★Judicious biomass use
★Improved feeds/feed strategies★Viable feed markets
Genetics★Improved local
breeds★Breeds well-matched
to environments
Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector
• Animal diseases results in low productivity, high mortality rates, consequently are responsible for important economic losses
• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries, diseases may increase
• Zoonotic diseases kill 2.2 million each year and sickens 2.4 billion
Young Adult
Cattle 22% 6%
Shoat 28% 11%
Poultry 70% 30%
Otte & Chilonda IAEA
Annual mortality of African livestock(About half due to preventable or curable diseases)
Animal diseases: a key constraint in Africa
Annual losses from selected diseases:Africa and South Asia
BMGFEndopara
sites
PPRCBPP
Ectopara
sites
CCPPFM
DTry
ps
Shoat pox
Newcastl
e
Bruce
llosis
Bovine TBLS
DRVF
ECFBVD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
South AsiaAfrica
Billi
on $
lost
yea
rly
AfricaSouth Asia
Animal health markets: Opportunities in developing countries
• Proper delivery systems for smallholder farmers (i.e., vaccination, technical assistance, etc.)
• Simple biosecurity measures
• Quality assurance for veterinary medicines
• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g., drugs in smaller packages)
• Surveillance for drug resistance
Animal feed markets:Trends in developing countries to 2030
• Use of crop residues is decreasing,but still comprises >50% of livestock diets in SSA and South Asia
• Use of crop by-products (e.g., oilcakes) and concentrates is increasing, but remains <10%, except in India dairy (25%)
• Use of planted forages is increasing
• Use of compounded feeds bought frommarkets is increasing
World Bank 2012
Animal feed markets:Opportunities in developing countries
• Feed technologies– Food-feed crops– Proper management of forage
resources, including fodder trees– Better use of available feeds
– Via processing (chopping)– Feed mixtures (rations)– Strategic supplementation
• Institutional and market issues
• Feed regulatory policies
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