Southeast Regional Rail Planning Study Federal Railroad Administration

Stakeholder Group Workshop 1 – Columbia, South Carolina

S E P T E M B E R 2 0 , 2 0 1 6

Baseline Conditions and Market AssessmentScott Richman, CH2M

Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment

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Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment

Presentation and Breakout Session Study Area Overview

(Megaregions & Core Based Statistical Areas)Population and Growth (2015-2040)Major Travel Patterns and Demand Potential Key Geographic FeaturesState Plans and PoliciesBreakout Groups Work Session

• Opportunities and Constraints• Initial Connections

• Assess Existing and Forecast Travel Market‒ Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) 2015 and 2040

population‒ Key destinations‒ Major infrastructure - corridors with highest

demand• Draw-out Most Important Info from

State/Regional Rail and Multimodal Plans‒ Passenger and freight rail, highways, air travel and

seaports ‒ Major travel patterns and demand‒ Planned passenger rail service/corridors

• Assess Key Opportunities and Constraints‒ Baseline and market conditions‒ Input from stakeholders

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Baseline Conditions and Market Assessment Report

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Megaregions

• Emerging planning context• Geographic areas combined –

similar characteristics + mutual interests

• By 2050 – 75% of U.S. pop. in 10 Megaregions

• 3 SE Megaregions: ‒ DC-Virginia‒ Piedmont (AL, TN, GA, NC and SC)‒ Florida

• Transportation inherently Megaregional

• HPR networks strengthen connectivity in Megaregions

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Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)

CBSAs:• Geographic area defined by Office of

Management and Budget (OMB) • Urban center min. 10,000 pop.• Core with surrounding areas tied by

commuting

CONNECT tool: • Uses pop. data (2015 – 2055)• Identifies viable corridors through CBSA

pairs analysis• CBSA pairs less than 800 miles apart -

uses national trip table

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Population by State

Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016

SE Region – some of highest forecast growth areas in U.S. (2015-2040)

‒ SC and TN 33%‒ GA 35%‒ NC 34%‒ VA 23%‒ FL 38%

0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

Florida

Virginia

North Carolina

Georgia

Tennessee

South Carolina

2040 (forecast) 2015

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CBSAs - 2015 and forecast (2040) population

0 4,000,000 8,000,000

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West PalmBeach

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-NewportNews

Jacksonville

Richmond

2040 (forecasted) 2015

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CBSAs Population Growth (2015-2040)*

* Core and Participatory States, based on most populous CBSAs (2015). Source: Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News

Jacksonville

Richmond

2015 to 2040 - Percent change

Major Travel Modes and Patterns

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Amtrak – SE Network

Route Cities Served Passengers (2015)

Auto Train Lorton, Virginia - Sanford, Florida 271,434

Silver Meteor Silver Star

New York-Miami; New York-Tampa-Miami341,999378,839

Palmetto Daily New York-Savannah 206,305

Crescent NY-Phila.-Wash., DC - Charlotte-Atlanta-Birmingham - New Orleans 278,708

Carolinian (NC) NY-Phila.-Wash., DC-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte 295,519

Piedmont (NC) Raleigh - Charlotte 159,688

NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Lynchburg 179,148

NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC – RichmondNY-Was., DC – Newport News 138,716

NE Regional (VA) NY - Wash., DC - Norfolk 119,787

Source: https://www.narprail.org/site/assets/files/1038/trains_2015.pdf

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Amtrak –Network and Busiest Stations

State Network Routes

# of Stations

Boardings and Alightings in

2015

Stations w/ over 70,000 Boardings and Alightings in

2015

Wash., D.C. 6 1 4,971,128 Union Station

Virginia 6 20 1,606,007Alexandria, Charlottesville,

Fredericksburg, Lorton, Lynchburg, Newport News,

Richmond-Staples Mill

Florida 4 18 1,027,196 Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Sanford, and Tampa

N. Carolina 6 16 944,706 Cary, Charlotte, Durham, Greensboro, Raleigh

S. Carolina 4 11 217,984 Charleston

Georgia 4 5 164,153 Atlanta

Tennessee 1 2 75,944 Memphis

Source: https://www.amtrak.com/state-fact-sheets

• Florida:‒ Tri-Rail service between Miami, Fort Lauderdale,

and West Palm Beach‒ SunRail serves the greater Orlando area

• Georgia:‒ MARTA provides bus and rapid rail service to most

urbanized parts of the Atlanta metropolitan region

• North Carolina:‒ Charlotte Area Transit (CATS) and Lynx Rail System

serve the Charlotte metropolitan area• Wash., D.C./Virginia:

‒ Virginia Railway Express (VRE) serves Northern Virginia and the District of Columbia

‒ Norfolk Tide‒ WMATA

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Existing Regional/Metropolitan/Commuter/LRT Networks

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Proposed Brightline

• Proposed Brightline (All Aboard Florida) project connecting Miami to Orlando with stops in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach

• Service between West Palm Beach and Miami is scheduled to begin in 2017

• Future service to Orlando• Development includes updates

to the existing Florida East Coast Corridor railway

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Interstate Corridors

CorridorApprox.

Corridor Length (miles)

CorridorPopulation

(2015)

Corridor Population (2040

Forecast)

Interstate 75: Florida Peninsula to Knoxville, TN 828 18,180,155 24,917,560

Interstate 40: Memphis, TN to KingsGrant, NC 766 11,109,504 15,549,073

Interstate 81: Knoxville, TN to Washington D.C. 487 7,681,647 9,665,453

Interstate 24: Atlanta, GA to Nashville, TN 250 2,684,891 3,801,180

Interstate 85: La Grange, GA to Durham, NC 438 13,684,386 19,319,014

Interstate 4: Daytona, FL to Orlando,Tampa, FL 132 6,293,217 8,809,956

Interstate 95:Wash., D.C. to Richmond, VAMiami, FL to Savannah, GA

109462

7,097,6669,678,355

9,481,77213,139,107

Sources: AADT from States DOTs; Woods & Poole Economic Data, 2016

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Active Freight Lines, Major Freight Corridors

• Two Class I carriers provide N-S and E-W links between seaports and inland customers

• Both Class 1 carriers use local short line and regional carriers (e.g. FEC, NCRR) to service certain local customers

• Major corridors:‒ CSX Shenandoah and Piedmont lines (Crescent

Corridor) – along I-81 and I-85, connects Birmingham and Manassas

‒ Norfolk Southern Heartland Corridor along US 460 -Port of Virginia - Roanoke

‒ CSX N-S (National Gateway) along I-95 ‒ CSX A-Line and S-Line from Florida to NE

Source: FRA Freight Policy (2014)

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Airports

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000Enplanements (FAA 2015)

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Major Seaports

Major Seaports (2014 Rank by Total Tons)

• Mobile, AL (9)

• Norfolk Harbor, VA (14)

• Tampa, FL (21)

• Savannah, GA (22)

• Newport News, VA (27)

• Port Everglades, FL (30)

• Charleston, SC (33)

• Jacksonville, FL (38)

Source:http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_57.html:

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Geographic Features

Represent Potential Constraints:

• Mountains - Appalachians• Major water bodies• National/state parks• Military bases• American Indian reservations

State Plans and Policies

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Washington D.C. Draft District Rail Plan (2016)

• Draft District Rail Plan submitted to FRA• Goals: add capacity, grow economic

opportunity, and enhance quality of life• Passenger rail projects: improvements to

Union Station, upgrades/increased capacity on the Long Bridge/L’Enfant Station Corridor, new midday commuter rail storage capacity

• Projects will provide needed capacity, connectivity, and operational flexibility for growing demand between District and points north and south

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Virginia’s Statewide Rail Plan (2013)

• Part of overall transportation planning framework

• Supports the VTrans goals for mobility, connectivity, and accessibility

• Offers options to corridors with highest density and growth potential

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North Carolina’s Comprehensive State Rail Plan (2015)

• Envisions connecting metro areas and communities to E. Coast destinations + enhancing movement of goods

• Priority corridors – those with continued investments and highest commuter rail potential

• Supports Governor’s 25-Year Vision (2014) - includes freight and passenger rail-related goals

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South Carolina’s Statewide Rail Plan (2014)

• Improved intercity service linking Charlotte, NC to Atlanta, GA, and Charlotte-Columbia connectivity

• 2030 Rail network consists of current Amtrak routes

• 2050 system no change except operations of 79-110 mph passenger trains (separate track) along current Amtrak Upstate route

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Georgia State Rail Plan (2015)

• Envisions a safe and energy efficient state rail system

• Expands access and enhances mobility in environmentally sustainable manner

• Emphasizes new intercity and commuter rail services to enhance mobility

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Florida: FDOT Multimodal Unfunded Needs Plan (2040)

• Objectives: interregional connectivity, intermodal connectivity, and economic development

• Recognizes passenger rail to address capacity needs

• Projects: Florida East Coast Railway Corridor improvements, Tri-Rail Station improvements, and passenger and freight rail upgrades.

• Florida is currently updating it’s Rail System Plan

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Tennessee’s 25-Year Long- Range Transportation Policy Plan (2015)

• Provides foundation for prioritizing transportation investments • Formed using framework of Policy Papers relevant to TDOT’s vision

and Guiding Principles• Guiding principle: “Provide for the Efficient Movement of People and

Freight: Optimize the movement of people and goods by providing greater access to transportation services for all people and by building better connections among different modes of transportation.”

• TDOT is updating statewide rail plan

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Transition to Breakout Session

AgendaStakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info • Relevant Data• State Plans Opportunities and Constraints• Refine List• Top 3Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene into One Group and Report Out

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Transition to Breakout Session

Map Overview…GO!

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Breakout Session

Stakeholders feedback / Q&A on Baseline/Market info Feedback on Data:

• CBSAs - Population and Growth (2015-2040)• Major Travel Patterns and Demand (multiple modes)• Key Geographic Features

Feedback on State Plans and PoliciesWork Sessions• Opportunities and Constraints• Initial Connections

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Breakout Session

Work SessionsOpportunities and Constraints• Refine List• Top 3Initial Connections Exercise Reconvene and Report Out

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Opportunities and Constraints

• Funding (capital and operations)• Built and natural environment • Competing modes• Demographics• Public attitudes• Policy priorities• Costs of inaction• Others?