Forecast of the exchange rate crisis in business planning

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• I saw the future big problems with exchange rate UAH\$ in Feb13, as result the future falling of customers purchasing capacity and sales

• Regarding this my strategy suggestions to General Manager for FY 2013-2014 were:

• Avoiding big investment in business expansion

• Focus on efficiency of the current business

8 SIMPLE STEPS

The way to forecast the currency crisis in Ukraine

Україна

Step 1

The National Budgetdeficit is on the same level (10-20 billion uahper year)

Step 2

Decreasing the GDP growth

Step 3

Increasing the Government & Guaranteed Debt

As result increasing theinterest payments

Step 4

Large increasing the External Debt

External Debt and GDP, million $Step 5

High ratio of the External Debt and GDP

10 000

15 000

01.03.2015

Step 6

Decreasing the NBU reserves

Step 7

Increasing balance of payments deficit

Source: http://www.kuchma.org.ua/ico/monitoring/10397/

GDP, mln UAH

Step 8

The weak Ukrainian economy (Steps 1-6), big deficit of balance of payments (Step 7) and exchange rate changing

Step 1 The National Budget deficit is on the same level (+\-)Step 2 Decreasing the GDP growthStep 3 Increasing the Government & Guaranteed Debt. As result

increasing the interest paymentsStep 4 Large increasing the External DebtStep 5 High ratio of the External Debt and GDPStep 6 Decreasing the NBU reservesStep 7 Increasing balance of payments deficitStep 8 The weak Ukrainian economy, big deficit of balance of

payments and EXCHANGE RATE CHANGING

The EuroMaidan, Russian aggression, financial speculations andcurrency panic are the additional factors that affect the UAH collapse, but THE MAIN 2 FACTORS ARE……

Why do we have bad financial performance in Ukraine?

1. Low efficiency of economy2. Huge corruption level

What should we do?

1. Stimulate Business Growth

2. Use the Georgia experience on corruption

Thank you for attention!

lynnyk.o(at)gmail.com