Forecasting the Next 20 Years in Space:The New Race to Space

Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.2008.9.11

21stCenturyWaves.com

Preview• “Live, work, and play.”— The Space Goal• We’ll have the ebullience!

– Technology and Money are just the beginning

• Long-term economic trends explain Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200 yrs…

• Self-Sufficiency in space is essential– Windows close quickly

• Our window opens in 2015; next opens in 2071– Some urgency

Introduction

Mars Dome City

Disney and Von Braun

The 1960swerespecial…

The Way We Were…

2001 Opened People’s Minds

The Way We Will Be

Maslow Window Model and the Data

It’s 1987. Why the smiles?

Why No Major Thrust Beyond LEO After Apollo?

• No International Threat (Logsdon)• Too Expensive; Competition overemphasized

(McDougall)• Generational Change (McCurdy)• Didn’t pay off (Brin)• Space Has No Meaning (Roland)• Cyberspace replaced Outer Space (Benjamin)• Space was a Political Deception (DeGroot)

These are Only Part of the Story…

1952…

Colliers Magazine – Prelude to Apollo“…the inevitably of man’s conquest of space…

is not science fiction…the U.S. must immediately embark on a long-range program.” Colliers, March 1952

17 Yrs Later: Apollo 11 landed on the Moon

Is There A Parallel Today?

The 56 Yr Energy/Economy Cycle

From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64.

Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.

Compelling Clusters

Energy Peaks 1801 1857 1913 1969

Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/

Explorations N. America Africa N. Polar Moon

Macro-Engineering None Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo

Projects (MEP)

Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/

War of 1812 Cold War

Great Exploration Events and MEPs: DefinitionsGreat Exploration Events are recognized by:1. Exploration of significantly new geographical sites

2. An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger

3. Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology

Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by:1. Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved

2. Extreme cost ($ 1+ B) and very large physical size

3. Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)

Lewis & Clark --The Great Exploration

MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS I: Great Explorations

Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)

1. Lewis and Clark/American West (1804-06) D = +3 yr2. Livingstone/Africa (1852-56; 1858-64) D = -5 yr

King/American West (1864- )3. Peary/North Pole (1909) D = -4 yr4. Apollo/Moon (1960-72) D = -9 yr

Panama Canal…The MEP

MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS II: Macro-Engineering Projects (MEP)

Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)

1. None (1801)2. Suez Canal (1859-69) D = +2 yr

Great Eastern Ship (1854-58)Trans-Atlantic Cable (1866)

3. Panama Canal (1904-14) D = - 9 yrTitanic (1912)

4. Apollo (1960-72) D = -9 yr

MASLOW WINDOW EVENTS III: Major Wars

Energy Peaks: 1801, 1857, 1913, 1969, (2025)(D = Initial Event date – Energy Peak date)

1. Napoleonic Wars/Europe (1803-1815) D = +2 yrWar of 1812/N. America (1812-15)

2. Civil War/U.S.A. (1861-65) D = + 4 yr3. W. W. I (1914-18) D = +1 yr4. Vietnam (1965-73) D = -4 yr

Economic Booms & Ebullience1801 “…so much success…country’s credit was so

good.”

1857 “…euphoric years…prolonged prosperity.”

1913 “…on the brink of Utopia.”

1969 “Camelot…unparalleled economic boom”

2025-18 “The greatest economic boom ever.”

The Maslow Window Model

Economic boom every ~56 yrs in decade just before each energy cycle peak

Affluence, Wide-spread Reduction of Maslow Pressures

Ebullience, Unusual Confidence in the Future

Emergence of conditions enabling Great Explorations, MEPs, Major Wars

Forecasts and Indicators

21st Century Forecasts – A Framework for the Future

The decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog

– in the economy, technology,

exploration, politics –

and have the zeitgeist of the 1960s

Maslow Window Characteristics Over Last 200 Years• MEP Costs dramatically increase, 100x

• Exploration/MEP Timing; 5-9 yr before energy peaks

• Major War Timing; just after energy peak, except for Vietnam

• Rapid Cut-off After Energy Cycle Peaks

• Significant Economic Growth between Peaks

• Major Economic Booms every ~56 yrs triggered by technological innovations

Forecasts for 2015 - 2025

• A Great Exploration in Space– Integrated with MEP, the “new” Apollo trend– “Sputnik-like” competitors and space tourism

• A Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPs– E.g., manned Mars, solar power, space tourism

– Cost ~ 10x Apollo

• A Major War– War on Terror vs. Cold War before…– An early war could eliminate Exploration/MEP

events.

Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07

Signs of the Times…• The “greatest economic boom ever” Fortune

July, 2007• International Space programs taking off…• Non-Space MEPs…e.g. Panama Canal• Return of Cold War-like tensions• Civic Health Index recovering from 1980s &

90s• Adventure-type travel and extreme sports

skyrocketing• Suborbital space tourist industry ready to go• Millennials poised for exploration…

Policy Implications and Conclusions

A Few Policy-Related Implications

• Major Programs only during Maslow Windows• GEs and MEPs are underestimated• Rapid Cutoff …Self-Sufficiency • Wildcard is Major War Timing• VSE has No Time for Mars?• Grand Alliance vs. Sputnik-style: Indicators• Maslow vs. Survival Programs• Long Waves influence Technology, Politics,etc..

Policy-Related Implications II

• Math/Science Education Culture Changed• The New NASA and Interspace• Space Tourism, Technology, and Marketing• International Events influence U.S. Programs• Return of Cold War and Close Cooperation• Maslow Windows and Marketing NASA• Focus on creating Space Frontier Society• Approaching Maslow Window requires action

Who’s the Next Space President?

Why Should NASA Care?• A Framework for long-range planning and

specific Forecast Models

• A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms

• A Morale Boost -- Timing is almost inevitable due to long waves in the economy (i.e., Maslow Windows)

Summary

• 2015-2025 will be the analog of the 1960s…

• The key is self-sufficiency in space – because support for major exploration ends abruptly

• The wildcard is the timing of the projected major war in the 2020s

• After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.

Can Humanity Afford to Wait?