ElSalvadorhasexperiencedsigni icantviolencedatingbacktotheSalvadoranCivilWar(1980‐1992).Whilethewarended,vi‐olenceproliferatedduetogangssuchasBarrio18andMaraSalvatrucha13.In2012,atrucewasbrokeredbetweenBarrio18andMS13gangswiththesupportoftheOrganizationofAmericanStatesandtheUN.Itrapidlydecreasedhomicides.Whenthetrucefellapartin2014,ElSalvadorsawthehighestmurderratesinoveradecadeandamassiveincreaseinemi‐grationofwomenandchildren.Thenationalnumberofhomi‐cidesshotupfrom2,513murdersin2013to6,656murdersin2015.ThisincreaseinviolenceledtoacrackdownonBarrio18andMS13gangactivity,leadingtowhatisdescribedbysomeasa“war”betweenthegangsandlawenforcement.Analyzingchangesinhomicideratesindicatesgeographicallywherethegangtrucewasmostsuccessfulduringitstenure,aswellastheareasofgreatestviolenceafteritsfailure.

Thisproject’sspatialquestionsare:Wherearetheareaswiththegreatestdensityofgreatestdensityofgangviolencebefore,during,andafterthegangtruce?

2015 

H R M

2013 

2012 

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G V E S : T I 2012‐2014 G T H R

C H 2012‐2015

ThisprojectplannedtoutilizeTheSocialCon lictAnalysisDa‐tabase,whichisadetaileddatasetof“socialviolence”from1990to2015,butthegangviolencedataisincomplete.Homi‐cidedatawasusedinitsplace;howeverdataisnotavailableforallmunicipalitieseveryyear.

Themostsevereexampleis2011,wherethereisonlydatafor35outof262municipalities.Originallytwochangeanalyseswouldhavebeenconducted.Onemeasuringthedifferencein2011and2013.Thesecondmeasuringthedifferencein2013and2015.Also,thisprojectsoughttocomparemodernviolencelevelsin2015withtheheightoftheSalvadoranCivilWarin1983.However,thereisnotcasualtydatafromthecivilwarthatisdisaggregatedbymunicipality.  

L

Thisprojectexamineshomicideratesbymunicipalityin2012,2013,and2015andthechangesinthenumberofhomicidesbe‐tween2012and2015throughapercentchangeanalysis.Homi‐cideratesarecalculatedper100,000inhabitantsandareusedasaproxyforgangvio‐lenceasgangspeci icdataisnotavailable.HomicidedataissourcedfromElSalvador’sIn‐stituteofForensicMedicine.Theseyearsrepresentthelowhomiciderateinthe irstyearofthegangtruce,followedbyamassiveincreaseinviolenceaf‐teritsfailure.

Additionally,thisprojectin‐cludesananalysisofthedatacollectedbyAmericasBarometerpollin2014,apublicopinionsurveytakeninElSalvadorbytheUniversityofTexasandUSAID.Thesurveyinquiredaboutper‐ceptionsofgangs,unemployment,inequality,lackofeducation,andlackofsecurity.Includedisapie‐chartindicatingopinionsonlevelsofgangviolenceinrespondentsneighborhoodsin2014.Alsoincludedisalinechart,showingthechangethenum‐berofhomicidesinElSalvadorfrom2010to2015.

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R Afterthegangtrucecollapsedin2014,homicideratessurpassedtheirpre‐trucelevels.Thetotalnumberofhomicidesin2015was6656,a62%increasefrom2012’s2,513homicides.Thenationscapital,SanSalvador,sawa514%increaseinhomicides.

Between2012and2015,25ofElSalvador’s262munici‐palities,sawanincreaseinviolenceof70%ormore.Addi‐tionally,88provinceshadanincreaseinviolenceof20%orhigher.Only20provincessawadecreaseinviolenceduringthistimeperiod.

C AmericasBarometer.LatinAmericanPublicOpinionProject,VanderbiltUniversity andUSAID.goo.gl/mol85aAccessedMarch17,2017.

Carcach,Carlos.“ASpatio‐temporalModelofHomicideinElSalvador.”CrimeScie

ce.August22,2015.4:20.goo.gl/4wZoyZAccessedFebruary19,2017.

ElSalvadorInstituteofForensicMedicine.HomicideRates6454‐2016.goo.gl/HQqqgF AccessedApril8,2017.

ElSalvadorMinisterioDeEconomia.ElSalvador644¹ Census.goo.gl/84c9qC.Accesed April9,2017.

FlagofElSalvador.WikimediaCommons.AccessedMay8,2017.Wikimedia.org

Ingram,M.C.,&Curtis,K.M.(2014).HomicideinElSalvador’smunicipalities.The WilsonCenter,LatinAmericanProgram.goo.gl/yyD0qsAccessed22January 2017.

Cartographer:CassieHenrriquez,MALD‘17Date:May9,2017Projection:WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_16NCourse:DHPP207GISforInternationalApplicationsSources:GADM,G k,ElSalvadorEconomicMinistry,ElSalvadorInstituteofForensicMedicine