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El Salvador has experienced signiϐicant violence dating back to the Salvadoran Civil War (1980‐1992). While the war ended, vi‐ olence proliferated due to gangs such as Barrio 18 and Mara Salvatrucha 13. In 2012, a truce was brokered between Barrio 18 and MS 13 gangs with the support of the Organization of American States and the UN. It rapidly decreased homicides. When the truce fell apart in 2014, El Salvador saw the highest murder rates in over a decade and a massive increase in emi‐ gration of women and children. The national number of homi‐ cides shot up from 2,513 murders in 2013 to 6,656 murders in 2015. This increase in violence led to a crackdown on Barrio 18 and MS 13 gang activity, leading to what is described by some as a “war” between the gangs and law enforcement. Analyzing changes in homicide rates indicates geographically where the gang truce was most successful during its tenure, as well as the areas of greatest violence after its failure. This project’s spatial questions are: Where are the areas with the greatest density of greatest density of gang violence before, during, and after the gang truce? 2015 HÊî® Rã ù MçÄ®®Ö½®ãù 2013 2012 IÄãÙÊçã®ÊÄ GĦ V®Ê½Ä ®Ä E½ S½òÊÙ: T « IÃÖã Ê¥ ã« 2012‐2014 GĦ T Ùç ÊÄ HÊî® RãÝ C«Ä¦ ®Ä HÊî® 2012‐2015 This project planned to utilize The Social Conϐlict Analysis Da‐ tabase, which is a detailed dataset of “social violence” from 1990 to 2015, but the gang violence data is incomplete. Homi‐ cide data was used in its place; however data is not available for all municipalities every year. The most severe example is 2011, where there is only data for 35 out of 262 municipalities. Originally two change analyses would have been conducted. One measuring the difference in 2011 and 2013. The second measuring the difference in 2013 and 2015. Also, this project sought to compare modern violence levels in 2015 with the height of the Salvadoran Civil War in 1983. However, there is not casualty data from the civil war that is disaggregated by municipality. L®Ã®ãã®ÊÄÝ This project examines homicide rates by municipality in 2012, 2013, and 2015 and the changes in the number of homicides be‐ tween 2012 and 2015 through a percent change analysis. Homi‐ cide rates are calculated per 100,000 inhabitants and are used as a proxy for gang vio‐ lence as gang speciϐic data is not available. Homicide data is sourced from El Salvador’s In‐ stitute of Forensic Medicine. These years represent the low homicide rate in the ϐirst year of the gang truce, followed by a massive increase in violence af‐ ter its failure. Additionally, this project in‐ cludes an analysis of the data collected by Americas Barometer poll in 2014, a public opinion survey taken in El Salvador by the University of Texas and USAID. The survey inquired about per‐ ceptions of gangs, unemployment, inequality, lack of education, and lack of security. Included is a pie‐chart indicating opinions on levels of gang violence in respondents neighborhoods in 2014. Also included is a line chart, showing the change the num‐ ber of homicides in El Salvador from 2010 to 2015. Mã«Êʽʦù RÝç½ãÝ After the gang truce collapsed in 2014, homicide rates surpassed their pre‐truce levels. The total number of homicides in 2015 was 6656, a 62% increase from 2012’s 2,513 homicides. The nations capital, San Salvador, saw a 514% increase in homicides. Between 2012 and 2015, 25 of El Salvador’s 262 munici‐ palities, saw an increase in violence of 70% or more. Addi‐ tionally, 88 provinces had an increase in violence of 20% or higher. Only 20 provinces saw a decrease in violence during this time period. C®ãã®ÊÄÝ Americas Barometer. Latin American Public Opinion Project, Vanderbilt University and USAID. goo.gl/mol85a Accessed March 17, 2017. Carcach, Carlos. “A Spatio‐temporal Model of Homicide in El Salvador.” Crime Scie ce. August 22, 2015. 4:20. goo.gl/4wZoyZ Accessed February 19, 2017. El Salvador Institute of Forensic Medicine. Homicide Rates 6454‐2016.goo.gl/HQqqgF Accessed April 8, 2017. El Salvador Ministerio De Economia. El Salvador 644¹ Census. goo.gl/84c9qC. Accesed April 9, 2017. Flag of El Salvador. Wikimedia Commons. Accessed May 8, 2017. Wikimedia.org Ingram, M. C., & Curtis, K. M. (2014). Homicide in El Salvador’s municipalities. The Wilson Center , Latin American Program. goo.gl/yyD0qs Accessed 22 January 2017. Cartographer: Cassie Henrriquez, MALD ‘17 Date: May 9, 2017 Projection: WGS_1984_UTM_Zone_16N Course: DHP P207 GIS for International Applications Sources: GADM, Gϐk, El Salvador Economic Ministry, El Salvador Institute of Forensic Medicine
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