Gerald spreitzhofer

transcript

Ultra-high resolution weather predictions for the Himalayas,

using MetGIS technologies

Dr. Gerald Spreitzhofer CEO, MetGIS GmbH, Vienna, Austria

University of Vienna, Inst. for Meteorology

Problem: Lack of accuracy over mountains

2. XXXXXXXXX Conventional Weather Forecasts:

• Decrease of risk of accidents

• Planning of resources

• Cost reduction for traffic operation centers

and other weather-dependent institutions

Improved forecasts important for:

Approach: MetGIS

Weather observations

High-resolution terrain

databases

(GIS-data)

MetGIS forecasts

Meteorological

forecast models

(Met.-data) Limit of conventional forecasts

Santiago de Chile

Boulder, USA WSL/SLF

Vienna, Austria

Nagaoka, Japan

Mendoza, Argentina

Alden/WELS

DGF, Univ.de Chile

CRICYT/IANIGLA

NIED/NISIS

IMG, Univ.Vienna

Davos, Switzerland

Lima, Peru

SENAMHI

• More then 10 years of international development efforts

• Combines specific expertise in meteorology, snow

science, GIS and software engineering

Base of MetGIS

Moscow, Russia

Mosc. State Univ.

Research Projects (basic and applied science):

• Cordination by University of Vienna

Operational application of MetGIS (Vienna):

• Processed by MetGIS GmbH

• First customer 2007, currently users in 10 countries

Cordination of MetGIS Developments

Forecasts are computed in forecast center of MetGIS in Vienna

Users access the

forecasts via

internet (e.g.

www.metgis.com).

Vienna, Austria

Forecast Access

•Terrain: 30 m resolution

•Vector data: boundaries, rivers,

roads, etc.

Global and Regional Met. Forecast Models

• default models: GFS + WRF

• Plugin of other models possible

MetGIS-Downscaling

•Refinement of meteorological

forecast through interaction with

terrain model

MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com)

•Customized interface for applied users

•Only most important information

•Operational since 2006/07 winter season,

Forecast Production Process

Extensión de los pronósticos

• In realtime: ultra-high-resolution forecasts for 2oo regions

world-wide

• 8 languages (English, French, Spanish, Italian, German,

Slowenian, Russian, Japanese)

MetGIS: World-wide Forecast Coverage

Antarctic Peninsula

Southern Africa

Vinson Massif

Lakes Region

Central Chile/Arg.

Mexico

Colombia

Alaska

British Colombia

California

Colorado

Bolivia

Eastern Africa

Morocco

Central Europe

Greenland Scandinavia

Turkey

Caucasus

SE Australia

New Zealand

Central Asia

Himalaya

Tienshan

Eastern Asia

Kamchatka

Bhutan

Western Bhutan, BHU Sikkim, IND

Mt. Everest, NEP

Annapurna, NEP

Uttarakhand, IND

Northern India

Central Tibet

Manali, IND

Srinagar, IND

K2, PAK

Karakoram Highway, PAK

Forecast Coverage: Himalaya

Khumbu, NEP

Parbat, PAK

Ultra-high-resolution forecast, several updates per day!

MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com)

Forecast example:

www.metgis.com Example: fresh snow forecast map for Portillo (Chile)

Retrieval of exact forecast values

www.metgis.com

4cm: 3hr-Snowfall until Su, 00 UTC

Numerical values are always visible

beside mouse cursor!

MetGIS Web Interface: www.metgis.com Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile) Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)

www.metgis.com

8cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC

13 cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC

www.metgis.com 7-day point forecasts always pop up when

clicking the mouse over specific points

Portillo

Point Forecasts

www.metgis.com

Portillo

Example of 7-day point forecast

Nepal snowstorm disaster

• 14th of October 2014

• More than 1m of snow in high elevations

• Around 50 dead people in the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri regions

MetGIS Forecast Example

Himalaya Precip. Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014

Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014

Pronósticos lineales

13 Oct 2014, 03 UTC

MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La, 13/14 Oct 2014

Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

13 Oct 2014, 09 UTC

Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecasts

13 Oct 2014, 12 UTC

MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La

Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecast

14 Oct 2014, 12 UTC

14 Oct 2014, 15 UTC

14 Oct 2014, 21 UTC

15 Oct 2014, 00 UTC

Recent MetGIS Developments

1. APIs (Application Programming Interfaces): Realtime MetGIS forecast data can be included in other systems (no need to use MetGIS Web Interface!)

2. Fully zoomable forecast maps (currently only for the Alps)

Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow

Edelweißspitze (2572m)

0,5 cm

Station: Schmittenhöhe (1953 m), Austria

Period: winter 2011/2012

Forecast Range (Days) 1 2 3 4 5

% of forecasts with errors < 1 deg 60,9 56,1 43,2 36,7 28,6

Mean absolute error (deg) 1,03 1,15 1,36 1,82 2,32

Correlation coefficient 0,98 0,98 0,97 0,95 0,90

Temperature Forecast Verification

Snowfall observed at Los Pelambres Depth of

observed

fresh snow

Depth of

fresh snow

forecast by

MetGIS [cm] From (start time) Until (end time)

2009-05-29 09:00 2009-05-30 00:00 9 6

2009-06-28 04:30 2009-06-30 03:00 103 87

2009-07-14 11:00 2009-07-15 07:00 12 21

2009-07-21 07:00 2009-07-22 13:00 55 53

2009-07-31 23:00 2009-08-01 04:00 4 1

2009-08-15 03:00 2009-08-16 04:00 51 89

2009-08-17 19:00 2009-08-19 11:00 44 92

2009-09-06 10:00 2009-09-06 23:30 4 3

2009-09-07 03:30 2009-09-07 12:00 6 5

Most important snowstorms hitting the station

Los Pelambres (Chile) during a winter season.

Fresh Snow Forecast Verification

Usuarios

• Traffic operation centers

• Ski and avalanche control centers

• Tourism

• Open-pit mining industry

• State meteorological services

• Private users:

Everybody involved in outdoor

activities (mainly Europe): hikers,

skiers, climbers, bikers, etc.

Typical Users of MetGIS Forcasts

• MetGIS used in Himalaya Kingdom of Bhutan since 2011

• Implemented through project of Austrian Devel. Agency

Bhutan: State Meteorological Service

MetGIS training class for

Bhutan meteorologists

• MetGIS used by SASE (Snow and Avalanche Study Est.)

since 2010

• Forecasts for Indian Himalayas (including WRF model)

• Drive simulation models of the snow cover.

India: Government of India

• MetGIS is a unique forecast system with specific skills

for mountain weather forecasts (most NWS: no

particular experience in this field!)

• World-wide successful application, incl. Himalayas

(India, Bhutan)

Nepal:

• MetGIS fully operational, several updates per day

• MetGIS could be used for several purposes

(operational forecasting and research, driving

hydrological models, etc.)

Summary and Conclusions

Thank you

for your

attention!

For more information:

Visit www.metgis.com

Himalaya:

www.metgis.com/en/re

gions/himalaya/

MetGIS

Gerald spreitzhofer

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