Rashid SumailaFisheries Centre, University of British Columbia

r.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca

Global warming as a new and emerging challenge to the sustainable use

of ocean fish resources

Livelihoods and Wealth Creation• Fish is primary source of animal

protein to nearly 1 bn people;• 80% of world fish catch is from

developing countries;• 35 million people derive income from

fishing, 170 million if post-fishing activities are included.

© Bénard/Andia.fr/Still Pictures

Click to edit Master text stylesSecond level

● Third level● Fourth level

● Fifth level

van der Meer & Sumaila (in prep.)

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Even without factoring in global warming fisheries are in trouble

Martell (1999)

Bluefin tuna in the Atlantic …

Lingcod in British Columbia …

Global warming impacts• Productivity & distribution of fish biomass will be affected:

• Shifts in distributional ranges of marine species;• Changes in ocean primary productivity;• Shifts in migration patterns of biological community;• Increases in frequency and severity of coral bleaching;• Mortalities and physiological stress by expansion of oxygen

minimum zones and hypoxia areas;• Ocean acidification affects calcification, other physiological

processes and growth;• Jellyfish explosions.

Cheung, Pauly et al. (2010); Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno (2010); Brander (2010

Impact of climate change on fisheries• Climate change will impact human welfare:

• Catches;• Food security;• Catch (landed) values;• Cost of fishing;• Profits to fishing companies;• Income to fishers;• Economic rent to resource owners;• The distribution of benefits to different countries, regions and

groups.

Sumaila and Cheung (2010)

Let’s consider the Mexican EEZWhat are the potential climate change impacts on fish biomass distribution?How will change in fish biomass amount and distribution affect the kind and amount of

fish catch?What are the economic impacts?

How will the changes above likely affect gross revenues (landed values) and its distribution to participants in Mexico’s fisheries?

Lam, Cheung and Sumaila (in press)

Developed & runfisheries models for Mexico

Under two IPCC climate change scenarios:

(a) MILD scenario:

Committed climate change experiment;

Climate forcing agents stabilized at the end of 20th Century levels.

(a) SEVERE scenario:

720 ppm stabilization experiment (SRES A1B);

Very rapid economic growth;

Low population growth;

Moderate use of resources with a balanced use of technologies.

Sumaila and Cheung (2010)

Global climate change projections

Climate change-impact

• Probability of occurrence by:

• Temperature• Depth limits• Habitats• Distance from sea-ice

Predicted future species distribution & productivity

Current speciesdistribution

Population dynamics

Predicting catch from macroecology

Range areaPrimary productivity (e.g. Behrenfeld & Falkowski 1997)

Catch potential

∝

Cheung et al. (2008) Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 365: 187-197

Calculating implications of climate change for landed values

Catch potential

Cheung, Pauly et al. (2010)

=*

Price, discount rate

Fisheries Economic Research Unit/SAU

databases

Results: Predicted change in fish catch

and value in Mexican EEZ SEVERE scenario catch SEVERE scenario catch value

Lam, Cheung and Sumaila (in press)

Thanks for your attention

Photo by Asep, TNC