H1 2017...North East 14.8% Yorks. & the Humber 14.5% (York=8.2%) East Midlands 12.1% Greater London...

transcript

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Retail & Leisure Trends

H1 2017

Kindly hosted by York BID

21st November, 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

Matthew Hopkinson, LDC

matthew@localdatacompany.com

Tel: 020 3111 4393

Mobile: 07799 772258

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

Introduction

What we do and why we do it

York and key zones – occupancy and footfall profiles

The GB retail environment

What’s happened in 2017?

Openings and closures

Vacancy

Changing trends in location health

Predictions

Agenda

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

We create location data to help businesses keep track

of the fast changing

retail and leisure marketplace.

550,000 shops

tracked

700 Footfall

sensors

Founded in

Update cycle

6-12 months Field Research

(68,000 updates/month)

Data Occupiers Investors Councils BIDs SEO Media

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

To identify the most

profitable locations

To inform on

opportunities and

threats

To quantify market

trends

Why we exist? #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

Field Research Office Research Online Insights Interpretation

How we do it? #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York CLG Area #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York BID boundary #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Gillygate #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Footfall Heatmap #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Coney Street #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Footfall Profile – Pavement #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York CLG Area – Occupancy #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York CLG Area - Vacancy #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights H1 2017: The GB context

Retail

+4.4% Since 2016

77% of adults bought products and

services online

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights An overview on Retail

Comparison Goods

Retail (non-food) - only

category in decline

The North West

saw biggest

increase in

occupied shops

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

3.955 3.752

3.539 3.271

3.716 3.472

2.907 2.813

417 482 385

90 -17 -280

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Openings Closures Net

Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units by month, H1 2017

Openings & Closures #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

H1 2016

-1,997 H1 2017

Net Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, H1 2016 vs. H1 2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

4.413 4.258 4.326

4.608 4.439

4.026 3.955

4.486 4.341

4.186 3.853

4.500 4.683

4.375 4.344

3.867 3.539

2.907 2.813

-73 -83 -259 -371 -436 -418

-570 -308

-76 232 95 159

417 482 385 90 -17

-1.000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2016 2017

Openings Closures Net change

Openings & Closures of retail & leisure units, Jan 16 - Jun 17

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures Retail and leisure units across GB, by quarter, 2012-2017

losure

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

High Streets

Retail Parks

Shopping Centres

Standalone

Balance

Number of units

Net Openings & Closures by location type, H1 2017

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Net Openings & Closures

-1.319

-1.500 -1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000

High Street

Retail Park

Shopping Centre

Standalone

Number of units

by location type, H1 2013 – H1 2017

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Distribution of stores by location type H1 2017

High Streets Retail Parks Shopping Centres Standalone

50.5% 2.5% 6.8% 40.2%

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#LDCInsights

Comparison Convenience Leisure Service

Closures Openings

Net Openings & Closures by classification, H1 2017

Net change

6,814 7,479

2,575 2,557

5,294 4,861

5,530 5,213

20,213 20,110

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type

Convenience Comparison

Leisure Service

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights What’s new? Top 5 openings of stores by classification type

Top 5 closures of stores by classification type

Convenience Comparison

Leisure Service

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017

Leisure

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 Multiples: Retail and Leisure By net growth in number of stores across GB, H1 2016 – H1 2017

Leisure

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange

Comparison ElectricalGoods&HomeEntertainment 28 2 4 -2 -6.7

Comparison Furniture,Carpets,Textiles,Bathrooms&Kitchens 25 3 5 -2 -7.4

Leisure Accommodation 31 2 4 -2 -6.1

Leisure Bars,Pubs&Clubs 108 6 8 -2 -1.8

Service Employment&PostOffices 14 0 2 -2 -12.5

Comparison Fashion&GeneralClothing 99 6 9 -3 -2.9

Convenience Confectionery,Tobacco,Newsagents 22 4 8 -4 -15.4

Comparison Gifts,China&LeatherGoods 35 7 12 -5 -12.5

Comparison Sports,Toys,CycleShops&Hobbies 34 5 11 -6 -15

York BID: Top & Bottom Categories By net growth in number of stores November 2016-2017

Classification Category Count:Nov-17 Opened(Nov-16-Nov-17) Closed(Nov-16-Nov-17) NetChange %NetChange

Leisure Restaurants 120 17 11 6 5.3

Comparison Books,Arts&Crafts,Stationery,Printers 55 6 4 2 3.8

Comparison DIY,Hardware,Builder'sMerchants&HouseholdGoods 8 2 0 2 33.3

Convenience Bakers 17 2 0 2 13.3

Service Hairdressing,Health&Beauty 112 7 5 2 1.8

Comparison Jewellers,Clocks&Watches 40 3 2 1 2.6

Convenience Butchers&Fishmongers 4 1 0 1 33.3

Service Banks,FinancialServices&BuildingSocieties 21 1 0 1 5

Service Locksmiths,ClothingAlterations&ShoeRepairs 10 1 0 1 11.1

ClassificationChangeYorkBID

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net gain in numbers of occupied stores across GB

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 20 towns For net loss in numbers of occupied stores across GB

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2 11,2

10,9 10,9 10,9

11,0 11,0

Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Vacancy R

2016 2017

Retail and Leisure vacancy rate H1 2016 – H1 2017

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Vacancy – the long way back

2008-1

2009-0

2009-1

2010-0

2010-1

2011-0

2011-1

2012-0

2012-1

2013-0

2013-1

2014-0

2014-1

2015-0

2015-1

2016-0

2016-1

2017-0

Vacancy R

GB shop vacancy rates 2008 - H1 2017 (%)

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights GB Retail and Leisure vacancy rate By location type H1 2017

5.1% 11.0% 12.6%

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates Across location types, H1 2017

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Shopping Centres (36,800 units)

Town Centres (274,115 units)

Retail Parks (11,165 units)

Vacancy (%)

e < 1 year

1-2 years

2-3 years

3-4 years

4-5 years

> 5 years

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By town centre size, H1 2017

Centres

Medium

Centres

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation in GB, H1 2017

England 11.1%

Scotland 11.9%

Wales 14.5%

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

England Scotland Wales

Vacancy

Nation

Town centres Retail parks Shopping centres

Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By nation and location type, H1 2017

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

North East 14.8%

Yorks. & the Humber 14.5% (York=8.2%)

East Midlands 12.1%

Greater London 7.5%

South East 9.9%

South West 10.1%

West Midlands

North West 15.1%

East Anglia 10.0%

Retail and Leisure vacancy rates By region of England, H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Persistent Retail and Leisure vacancy rates

3,9 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,3 3,5 3,6 3,8 3,7 3,4 3,5

2,8 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,6

2,8 2,2 2,3 1,9

1,8 1,6

1,7 1,5

1,7 1,5 1,3 1,5

1,4 1,3 1,1

1,1 0,8

1,1 1,2

1,0 0,8 0,9 0,8

0,9 0,6 0,7

0,6 0,4

1,1 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,7

0,9 0,7 0,5

0,5 0,6

3,5 3,5 3,0

2,6 2,7 3,0

1,5 1,7

North West(37,478units)

North East(12,588units)

WestMidlands(27,151units)

Scotland(15,711units)

Yorkshireand theHumber(26,318units)

Wales(14,336units)

EastMidlands(20,880units)

South West(30,500units)

East OfEngland(27,773units)

South East(46,735units)

GreaterLondon(62,610units)

Vacancy (

Nations and regions

> 5 years4-5 years3-4 years2-3 years1-2 years< 1 year

Across location types, H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

(York ranks 338th out of 650 towns)

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 best performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 worst performing retail centres For Retail and Leisure vacancy across GB, H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Location health – what is the health index? 12 variables

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York Health Index #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights LDC Health Index average scores Across five location types H1 2015 – H1 2017

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0

Shopping centres

Retail parks

Large towns

Medium towns

Small towns

Average score per year

H1 2015

H1 2016

H1 2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Victoria (London)

Oxford

Barnstaple

Kingston-upon-Thames

Knightsbridge

Ipswich

Edinburgh

Chelmsford

Rise in LDC Health score (points)

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 large centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Coventry

Croydon

Barnsley

West London

Swindon

Bradford

Lincoln

Leicester

West End, London

Fall in LDC Health score (points)

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By rise in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Albany Road, Cardiff

Carmarthen

Chatham

Ripley

Spalding

Stourbridge

Winchester

Hereford

Newmarket

Altrincham

Rise in LDC Health score (points)

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Top 10 medium centres By fall in LDC Health Index score H1 2016 – H1 2017

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Kendal

Long Eaton

Petersfield

Wilmslow

Cleveleys

Finsbury Park

Holloway Road

Lymington

Fall in Health Index score (points)

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights So what for occupiers?

Footfall Digital presence Retailing still takes place

in physical stores

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights So what for investors?

Rental values Specialisation

In certain locations

Competitor analysis

can reveal growth

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights So what for government?

Take temperature of

retail centres

Footfall & Spend

Openings vs.

Closures

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights Predictions

Bubble? Rise of mega

malls & cities

Acceleration of mixed

used destinations

Increased

trading volatility

Rise of entertainment

destinations

Consumer

polarisation

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights York versus selected Benchmarks #YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

@LocalDataCo

#LDCInsights

Thank you for listening

www.localdatacompany.com

@LocalDataCo

#YBW2017

#YorkBizWeek2017

H1 2017...North East 14.8% Yorks. & the Humber 14.5% (York=8.2%) East Midlands 12.1% Greater London...

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