Post on 25-Feb-2016
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transcript
Harry S. Dent, Jr.Dent Research
Dent Business Academy
Business Strategies for the Winter Season
Consumer Life Cycle and
Micro Demographic Opportunities
Session 5:
Charts
15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
total expenditure
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Age
Aver
age
Ann
ual E
xpen
ditu
res
Total Consumer Spending
Chart 5-1
50-53
46
Micro Trends 1Sp
endi
ng
20Age
25 30 35 45
20
Workforce Entry
2628
Childbirth- Infant Furniture
3133
25
Childcare/ Babysitting
First/Starter Home
Marriage
4142
Mortgage Interest; Trade-Up Homes
Trade-up Home; Potato Chips/Groceries
First Car
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-2
Micro Trends 2
45Age
48 51
4846
Spen
ding
53College Tuition
Motorcycles;Vacation Homes
Furniture; Tires
43 54
51 Autos
Home Improvement
54
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-3
Mid-Life Cycle
Micro Trends 3Sp
endi
ng
55Age
60 65 70 75 80 85
China/ Dinnerware
55
58
Life Insurance; Doctor’s Fees
60
Garden/ Lawn Care
70
Vacation and Retirement Homes
77
Nursing Homes
81
Prescription Drugs
Hospitals; Travel
65 Cruise Ships
74
Medicare Co-Pay
84
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-4
Elderhood
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
2028
2032
2036
2040
20
40
60
80
100
120
-1,000,000.0
-500,000.0
0.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
Real Home Prices, leftU.S. peak buyers (41) minus (79) year olds, right
100=
2005
Data Source: US Census Bureau, Dallas Federal Reserve, 2013
U.S. Net Housing Demand
Chart 5-5
Consumer Real Estate CycleSp
endi
ng
20Age
25 30 35 40 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 90
26-27
Trade-Up Homes
Apartment & Shopping Centers
Offices45
20-21
41-43
60
85
65Vacation & Retirement Homes
84
Resorts
Nursing Homes
31-32
Starter Homes
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Chart 5-6
Best Aging Markets in Order of Time
• Discretionary healthcare, wellness and weight-loss• Overseas travel• Health, life insurance and financial planning• Recreational vehicles (RVs)• Cruise ships• Downtown condos/town homes and exurban retirement
communities• Landscaping and home maintenance services• Convenience and drug stores• Pharmaceuticals and vitamins• Funeral homes and cremation services• Nursing homes and assisted living facilities
Chart 5-7
1913
1918
1923
1928
1933
1938
1943
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Top 1% Income Share Top 10% Income Share Top 1% Wealth Share
Data Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, The World Top Incomes Database, h ttp://g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/topincomes, 2013, Edward Wolff, as printed in Wealth and Democracy and New York University, 2010
Top 1% and 10% Income and Wealth
Chart 5-8