HURRICANERESILIENCE:LONG-RANGEPLANNINGFORTHE

PORTOFPROVIDENCE

Aus7nBeckerNov.10,2015

URICoastalResourcesSeminarSeries

•  Understandandcommentonstormscenario&consequences•  Reviewfourlong-rangeresilienceconceptalterna9ves•  Reviewpossiblelong-range“resiliencegoals”fortheportand

weighimportanceofeach•  Providefeedbackonworkshopmethodologyasawayto

measureportvulnerabilityandini9ate•  Iden9fycollec9veac9onthatneedstobediscussednowand

recommenda9onsforRIDOT

ReviewofWorkshopObjec7ves

h"p://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/

Perimeter=7MilesArea=1500Acres#ofbusinesses:~30#employed:

•  Direct:~1,000•  Indirect:~2,000

Totalforeigntrade(MT):•  4.8M(2013)•  Rank:46(inUS)MainpetroleumsupplyforRIChanneldepth:40’(2004-$65M)

STUDYAREA

USACE,2013,2012FXMAssociates,2008;4WardPlanning,2015

EastProvidence

Providence

4

ThePortofProvidence

8-3-1528parCcipants

Photos:JohnHaymaker

Aug.3WorkshopAgenda

Scenariosa.  SuperStormSandyandthePNYNJb.  WhatthesciencesayscouldhappeninProvidencec.   ConsequencesofCat3inweeks/months/years

Longtermresilienceconceptalterna7vesa. PresentWecisiontoolb.  Threelongtermresilienceconceptalterna7vesc.   Compareproposedlongtermresiliencegoalstoconcept

alterna7vesConclusionAdjournforcocktails(Sponsor:ProvidenceWorkingWaterfrontAlliance)

HurricaneScienceanda“HurricaneScenario”

R.DuncanMcIntosh,MPS

UniversityofRhodeIsland

DepartmentofMarineAffairs

RhodeIslandHurricanes:HistoricalRecord

•  37hurricaneswithin50miofRIsince1851•  ≈4yearreturnperiod•  ≈22.8%chanceofhurricaneperyear

StormSurgeinaChangingClimate

Photo:KrisAllred

FortheNortheasternUS:By2050today’s100-yearstormsurgeevent

maybeequaledorexceededevery30years.

(Kirshenetal.2008)

1 74-95 somedamage

2 96-110 extensivedamage

3 111-129 Devasta9ngdamage

4 130-156 Catastrophicdamage

5 >157 Catastrophicdamage

•  ‘Directhit’forProvidence

•  Comparableto1938hurricane,butshifed~80miEast

•  ComparabletoSandywithoutthe‘lefhook’

HurricaneScenario

HurricaneScenario

•  GISVisualiza9onof21f“bathtub”inunda9on

•  AssumesFoxPointBarriernotovertopped

•  Onlyshowspassivelevelofsea

•  Doesnotshowexpected6-10’waveac9on

•  Youhavehardcopiesofthismapatyourtables

•  BasedonRIGIS,2013DEMderivedfroma1-meterresolu9ondigitaleleva9onmodeloriginallyproducedaspartoftheNortheastLiDARProjectin2011.

SURGE

ProvPort

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

MetalsRecycling,Inc.

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

Mo7va

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

Sprague

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

ExxonMobile(E.Providence)

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

Wilkes-BarrePier(CapitalTerminals,E.Providence)

See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html

PreliminaryFindings

Weeks

Lossofcri9calfacili9escripplesbusinessEnergysupplycompromised(hospitals,ins9tu9ons,etc.)RawwastewaterdischargeDebriscleanup,debrisobstruc9ons,debrisasbaqeringram

Months

DamagedroadsandraildisruptcommerceDebris/sedimenta9onrequiresurveying,restrictnaviga9onBulkhead/pierdamageresultinpermisngdelays&repairErosionofriverbankleadstosedimentloadingofdeepchannel

Years

Long-termenvironmentalimpactstoNarr.BayEconomicimpacts,butliqleclarityovertheirnatureRiskstocompe9venessofportifperceivedasvulnerabletostormsIncreaseininsuranceratescouldforcebusinesstoleave

ResilienceStrategies:4long-termresiliencedesign

concepts

hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/

1.DoNothing–Nochangetoportresilience

1.DoNothing–Nochangetoportresilience

Advantages

•  Low/noupfrontcosts•  Nodisrup9onun9lstorm

event(s)occur•  Easy•  Allowsforinvestmentsin

otherpriori9es

Disadvantages•  Riskofmajorcatastrophe

afereachstormevent•  Riskofbusinessesleaving

theState•  Riskofmajorenvironmental

damagetoNarraganseqBay

•  Riskofchannelclosingforweeks/months

•  Impactstostate’senergysupplies

2.Accommodate–Site-specificimprovementstoincreaseresilience

Elevate

ElevatedU9li9esandGenerator(Pt.Judith,RI)

Landunderneathinfrastructure(Gulfport,MS)

Advantages

•  Costscanbeincremental•  Site-specificity•  Low-costop9ons•  Singlebusinesscouldimprove

itsownresilience•  CouldaddressSLR•  Doesnotdisruptportsystem

asawhole

Disadvantages

•  Limitedinabilitytoprotectagainstmajorstorm

•  Doesnotaddressinterdependentuses

•  Stormcouldresultinhighlevelsofenvironmentaldamages

•  Fewtestedexamplesforindustrialwaterfronts

•  Lesslikelytoprotectnaviga9onchannelfromdebris

2.Accommodate–Site-specificimprovementstoincreaseresilience

3.RelocateMoveportusestolessvulnerableloca9on.

Providence~21f

Quonset~15f

Newport~14f

Characteris7c Pts.

1000’from>40’water

3

1000’from30-40’water

2

1000’from10-20’water

1

1000’fromType6waters

2

Currentlanduseindustrial

2

Currentlandusevacant

2

Industrialzoninginplace

1

>1milefromhighwayexit

1

<1000’fromrailline

1

Example:EastProvidenceTerminals

ExxonMobileTerminal

Eleva9on~50f

ExxonMobileBerth

3.Relocate–Movingportusestolessvulnerableloca7on.

Advantages•  Removeshazardousmaterials

fromfloodplain•  Testedstrategyhasbeen

implementedelsewhere•  Opensfloodplainaspublic

waterfrontspaceand/orenvironmentalremedia9on

•  CanaccountforSLR•  Reducesdebrisinnaviga9on

channelaferstorm•  Improveswaterqualityto

ProvidenceHarbor

Disadvantages•  Disruptsportnetwork•  Limitedlandavailability•  Highcosts•  Mayimpactcommuni9es

aroundreloca9onsites•  Complexi9esfromdependence

onu9li9es(e.g.,pipelines,rail,highway)

•  Maydisplaceenvironmentaldamagestootherplaces

4.Protect–NewstormbarrierforProvidenceHarbor.

StormGate

Berm

RemoveFoxPointBarrier

FloodwaterStorage

Image:LAR4442014

Advantages•  Protectsduringallmajor

events•  Newpublicusescanbe

integrated(e.g.,onberm)•  Doesnotdisruptshipping•  Createssafeharborfornew

business•  Testedsolu9on•  Verylongtermsolu9on•  FreesuplandinCitythrough

removalofcurrentbarriersystem

Disadvantages•  Impactsofsealevelriseare

notaddressed•  Mayimpact9dalflows(water

quality)•  Impactssedimentflow,water

quality,dischargefromwatershed(sedimenta9onofnaviga9onchannel)

•  Highupfrontcosts•  MayimpactviewofBay•  Mayrequirepumpingdueto

increasedfreshwaterflows

4.Protect–StormbarrierforProvidenceHarbor.

29

CONCEPTS G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7

Protect

Relocate

Accommodate

DoNothing

RESILIENCEGOALSREVIEW

1 2 3 4 5LESSEFFECTIVE MOREEFFECTIVE

1.  Ensurepost-hurricanebusinesscon9nuityforwaterfrontbusiness2.  Minimizehurricanedamageforinfrastructureandwaterfront

business3.  Minimizehurricane-relatedenvironmentaldamagefromportuses.4.  Buildpublicsupportforhurricaneresiliencemeasures&port

opera9ons5.  Minimizehazardinsurancerates6.  Fosterportgrowth7.  Protecthumansafety&cri9callifelines

20

0

10

Preliminaryfindings•  Noclearlong-termportplanformajorhurricaneevent

•  Difficulttoen9ceprivatebusinesstopar9cipatewhennextstepsaren’tclear

•  Noclearchampion(gov’torprivate)totaketheleadonlong-termplanning

•  Businessesveryresistantto“relocate”concept,mostlybecausetheyfeltitwouldnotbefeasible

•  Overall,“protect”wouldbethefavoredstrategy•  Stakeholdersfounditdifficulttoengagebecausecostswerenotpartofconversa9on

•  Costcalcula9onsverydifficulttoes9mate

PreliminaryRecommenda9ons•  Reviseworkshopmethodology(e.g.,probabilis9cstormscenario,addcostandfeasibility,addmore9mefordiscussion)

•  Createdatabaseofexpertsandbestprac9cestoincludeinresiliencedialogues

•  Createadhocstakeholdergrouptobeginmoreformaldialoguearoundlong-termresilienceplanning

•  Engageportwithexis9ngclimateeffortsinthestate(e.g.,theEC4,CRMCBeachSAMP)

•  Create“poststormrebuildinggoalsandstrategies”•  Iden9fybusiness-con9nuityopportuni9esbeforethestormhits(e.g.,con9ngencycontracts,debrisdes9na9ons)

•  Conducteconomicassessmentof“portshutdown”

ProjectTeamLeadsEvanMaqhews,PortofDavisville,ChairofSteeringCommiqeeDr.Aus9nBecker,URI,Projectco-leadDr.RickBurroughs,URI,Projectco-leadDr.JohnHaymaker,AreaResearch,WecisionleadMarkAmaral,LighthouseConsul9ng,WorkshopFacilitator

SteeringCommiaeeDanGoulet,CRMCCoreyBobba,FHWADr.JulieRosas,USACEKatherineTouzinsky,USACEPamRubinoff,CRC/RISeaGrantKevinBlount,USCGBillMcDonald,MARADMeredithBrady,RIDOTJohnRiendeau,CommerceRIDavidEvereq,CityofProvidenceDept.ofPlanningChrisWiq,RIStatewidePlanning

StudentsEricKretsch,JuliaMiller,DuncanMcIntosh,EmilyHumphries,

PeterStempel,EmilyTradd,NicoleAndrescavage,ZaireGarreq,BrianLaverriere,LAR444Class