Implications of climate change for tropical Pacific · Implications of climate change for fisheries...

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Implications of climate change for fisheries in the tropical Pacific:

Johann Bell

Economic development and food security

Vulnerability assessment

Supported by

• 88 scientists from 36 institutions

Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia

Pacific Island countries and territories

• Regional technical agency• 22 PICTs and 4 metropolitan members (Australia, New Zealand, France and USA)

• Provides advice in 15 areas• e.g. Oceanic Fisheries Programme

• Approach used for the vulnerability assessment

• Summary of effects on fisheries• Effects on plans to use resourcesEconomic developmentFood security

• Identify the best adaptationsVital role of tuna

Outline

Our approachProjected changes to atmospheric

and oceanic conditions

Ecosystems supporting fish

Fish stocks

Implications for economic development, food security and

livelihoods

Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on

opportunities

Our approach

Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Fish stocks

livelihoods

opportunities

Scenarios and timeframes

B1/A2 2035

B1 2100

A2 2100

Our approach

Fish stocks

livelihoods

opportunities

Scenarios and timeframes

B1/A2 2035

B1 2100 (A2 2050)

A2 2100

Our approach

Fish stocks

livelihoods

opportunities

• Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development

• Provide sufficient fish for food security

•Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources

How could climate change derail regional plans?

Our approach

Effects on fisheries

Skipjack tuna (A2)West (average)

2035 2050 2100

+11% -0.2% -21%

East (average)

2035 2050 2100

+37% +43% +27%

Coastal fisheries (A2)

2035 2050 2100

Negligible -10 to -20%

up to -50%

Freshwater fisheries (A2)

2035 2050 2100

+2.5% +2.5 to +7.5%

+2.5 to +12.5%

Aquaculture (A2)

System 2035 2050 2100

Ponds +Low +Low to Medium +Medium

Coastal -Low -Low to Medium -Medium

How could the projected changes to tuna resources affect plans for

economic development?

• Government revenue

• GDP Development of national fleetsMore domestic processing

Economic development

• Government revenue % (1998‐2008)

Examples onlyRange x‐y%

10‐25

2‐15

30‐50

10‐25

6‐12

Source: Gillett (2009)

Changes in revenue % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)

10‐25

2‐15

30‐50

Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

Data are midpoints of estimated change

10‐25

2‐15

30‐50

Lower estimate = 30% GR x 37% increase in 2035 = 11%Higher estimate = 50% GR x 37% increase in 2035 = 18.5%Midpoint 11‐18.5% increase in GR = 14.7%Therefore GR increases from midpoint value of 40% to 54.7%

10‐25

6‐12

• Gross Domestic Product % (1998‐2008)

20‐25

10‐25

(Processing)

Changes in GDP % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)

20‐25

10‐25

Data are midpoints of estimated changeSource: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

Changes in GDP % 2035 2050 2100 (A2)

Data are midpoints of estimated changeSource: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

• PICTs with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits!

• Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly in PICTs where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to size of economies)

• Fairly good news!

Key points

How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?

• In rural areas:

• 60‐90% of fish is caught by household

• fish contributes 70‐90% of animal protein intake

• In half of PICTs fish consumption is at least 2‐4 times the global average

How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security?

Plans are to:

• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year

• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

Three categories of PICTs

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 1Large area of reef per person

Group 2Large area of reef per person but remote

Group 3 Small area of reef per person

Three categories of PICTs

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group PICTAverage reef

area per person 2010 (m2)

1Cook Islands, Marshall Islands, New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn Islands and Tokelau

230,000

2FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna

90,000

3American Samoa, Fiji, Guam, Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu

Why is reef area so important?

• Most fish used for food are caught near coral reef habitats

• Sustainable catches of fish from reefs are not known for most PICTs; median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year is used instead

Group 1

• No effects of popn growth or climate change

PICTFish available per person per year (kg)*2035 A2 2050 A2 2100 A2

Cook Islands 115 99 105Marshall Islands 646 570 570New Caledonia 313 256 233Palau 321 286 286Tokelau 495 446 446*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year

Production remains > 35 kg per person per year

Group 2

• Some implications (assuming effective distribution)

*Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year

Production usually > 35 kg per person per year

PICTFish available per person per year (kg)

2035 A2 2050 A2 2100 A2FSM 418 354 236French Polynesia 131 108 57Kiribati 86 66 26Niue 125 111 80Tonga 145 116 50Tuvalu 711 564 234Wallis & Futuna 197 170 96

Group 3

• Severe implications due to population growth

PICTFish available per person per year

(kg)2035 2050 2100

American Samoa 13 11 8Fiji 35 32 26Guam 3 3 2Nauru 1 1 1PNG 8 6 4CNMI 10 9 9Samoa 30 29 25Solomon Islands 28 23 14Vanuatu 9 7 4

Additional effects of climate change

28 2823 20

7 712 15

50Solomon Islands

2035 2050 2100

35 34 3228 26

50Fiji

2035 2050 2100

Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change

Group 3

• Gap to be filled

PICTGap in fish needed per person per year (kg)

2035 2050 2100Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2

American Samoa 22 23 24 26 27 29Fiji 0 1 3 7 9 16Guam 32 32 32 33 33 33PNG 27 27 29 29 31 32Nauru 34 34 34 34 34 34CNMI 25 25 26 27 26 29Samoa 5 6 6 11 10 16Solomon Islands 7 7 12 15 21 24Vanuatu 26 26 28 29 31 32

Where will the fish come from?

• Fortunately, we do have good options!

Group 3 ‐ How best to fill the gap?

Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)

Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Fiji2035 (34,216 t)

2050 (37,125 t)

2100 (46,608 t)

0 2 4 6 8 10

Samoa2035 (7070 t)

2050 (7341 t)

2100 (8405 t)

0 1 2 3 4 5

American Samoa2035 (3056 t)

2050 (3439 t)

2100 (4741 t)

9% 68%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Papua New Guinea2035 (140,690 t)

2050 (172,524 t)

2100 (274,625 t)

Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

How should we adapt?

• To reduce the threats

• To harness the opportunities

Adaptation decision framework

Lose‐Lose Lose‐Win

Win‐Win

Long‐term Loss Long‐term GainShort‐term

Short‐term

Addresses Climate ChangeAd

dresses P

resent driv

After Grafton (2010)

Win‐Lose

Adaptations (economic development)

La Niña

El Niño

Source: P. Lehodey

Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters can purchase and trade fishing days depending on the location of the tuna

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets

Parties to the Nauru Agreement: Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau,Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu

~ 95% of tuna from PICTs is caught in the EEZs of PNA members

Skipjack tuna

2050 A2

2100 A2

La Niña

El Niño

Source: P. Lehodey

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets

VDS has potential to be modified regularly to accommodate movement of tuna to the east

Energy audits of industrial fishing vessels

• Addresses likelihood of near‐term rises in fuel costs

• Will assist national fleets from PNG and Solomon Islands that may have to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries

Adaptations to supply canneries in PNG and Solomon Islands

• Maintain/Develop Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU (and support PICTs supplying tuna to conform with food safety and IUU fishing regulations)

• Reduce access of distant water fishing nations to the EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels

• Require DWFNs operating with their EEZs to land some of the catch for use by local canneries;

• Enhance existing arrangements for the national fleet to fish in other EEZs

Adaptations (food security)

Increase access to tuna for subsistence fishers with low‐cost, inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

Store and distribute tuna and by‐catch from industrial fleets to urban areas

Adaptations (food security)L‐W

W‐LDevelop pond aquaculture

Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats

2050 A2

2100 A2Source: P. Lehodey

SProjecte

Projected rainfall (A2) 20355‐20%

2050 10‐20%

2100 10‐20%

Source: Gehrke et al.; 2011 Lough et al. 2011

Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses

Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats

2050 A2

2100 A2Source: P. Lehodey

SProjecte

20355‐20%

2050 10‐20%

2100 10‐20%

Projected rainfall (A2)

Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses

Degraded coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses

Source: Gehrke et al.; 2011 Lough et al. 2011

Restore and sustain coastal and freshwater fisheries and their habitats

W‐LQua

of fish/ha

Well‐managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly‐managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

• FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries

• Ecosystem Approach Fisheries Management

SummaryEconomic development• East gains, where PICTs have high dependence on tuna, west has losses but effects on GDP are small

Food security• Effects of population growth swamp effects of climate change

Contribution of coastal fisheries decreases, but gap can be filled mainly by tuna

Adaptations• Win‐win adaptations available for economic growth and food security

A team effort!Lead authorsJanice Lough, AIMSAlex Ganachaud, IRDRobert LeBorgne, IRDOve Hoegh‐Guldberg, University of QueenslandMichelle Waycott, James Cook UniversityMorgan Pratchett, James Cook UniversityPeter Gehrke, SMECPatrick Lehodey, CLSTim Pickering, SPC

Thank you

Implications of climate change for tropical Pacific · Implications of climate change for fisheries...

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