Intuition– Its Power, Mystery & How to Get it

Quote: William James“Compared with what

we ought to be,

we are only half-awake…

We are making use of only

a small part of our

possible mental resources.”

~ William James,

founder of Psychology (1911) ~

Intuition vs Conscious Reasoning

Complexproblems

& creativityrequire Intuition.

Pure analysis is not enough

Intuition(system 1)

Conscious Reasoning(system 2)

SlowLinear, step-wiseAnalyticalDeductiveQuickly changing~ Rule based

RapidParallelNon-linearAssociativeSlow learning~ Emotional

CreativeThought

“Intuition is imperative because conscious reasoning and logic are too limited for human-created problems, particularly those on the global scale.” - Daniel Cappon, ‘Intuition & Management’

The Left-Brain vs. Right-Brain Illusion

Ordered

Logical

Mathematical

Artistic

Creative

Musical

’Intuition’ is an Umbrella Concept

Heuristics

System 1 – all forms of non-conscious thinkingIntuition practice discerns and deepens

Examples of intuition

Experiences

Results

Associations

Instincts ReflexesAutomations

”butterflies in stomach”Certainty

”Heureka!””right direction”Doubting feeling

VisionInsight Message

UnderstandingSolution Confirmation

Intuition – Four Categories (?)

Affective associations (feelings) Recognising (pattern/prototype)

Accumulative (tresholds/combining) Constructive (new ideas)

Intuition Developmental Stages

Smart Heuristics (Gigerenzer)1. Heuristics: useful intuitions!2. Speed up decision-making3. Simplify towards action4. Simplicity wins over complexity

Uncertainty? Intuition wins!

Gerd Gigerenzer

EXAMPLE: Gaze HeuristicSimple Heuristicθ˚

Biases in Heuristics (Kahneman)

“System 1 is the source of your rapid and often precise intuitive judgments. “

“System 2 is not a paragon of rationality. Its abilities are limited and so is the knowledge it has access to.”

“Our thoughts and actions are routinely guided by System 1 and generally are on the mark.”

CASE: Firefighters know

Simple vs. Complex in Forecasting

Error in Past Data fitting Ac

cura

cy %

Heuristic (take the best)

Weighted analysis (regression)

Equal weighting (tallying)

Degree of polynomial (statistical algorithm)Data Fit (Past) Prediction (Future)

Erro

r Lev

el

Accuracy of Temperature forecasts vs Complexity

Heuristics vs Regression in Forecasts

Error in Forecasting Future trend

Too much complexity leads

to over-fitting and worseforecasts

2.4

7.7 variables

7.7

Simple heuristics canwin in forecasting

CASE: Price of Oil Forecast (Taleb)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Quote: William Gibson

“The future is already here

— it's just not very evenly distributed.”

~ William Gibson ~

Expert Forecasts (Tetlock)

Philip Tetlock

Can we forecast the future?

- How accurate are experts?- Are they better than algorithms?- Who are the best forecasters?- What are the qualities of the best?

We believe experts, but have no data!

Experts : Blind Monkeys

CASE: Recession Forecasts (IMF)

Correct: 0 0 3 0 0?

Forecasted recession(one year ahead)

Actual number of recessions(one year after)

Recession forecasting by hundreds of Economic professionals

Two categories of Forecasters Hedgehogs &

Foxes

+30%

Superforecasters (Tetlock)

1. Be a Fox

2. Rate your confidence

3. Score results neutrally

4. Be actively open-minded

5. Re-assess &

Re-calibrate

SuperforecasterPrinciples

Compare several trends: contradict

Historical context: cycles & averages

Average opinion: middle more accurate

Math models: if right in same situation

Predict biases : let go, if data shows

Analyse

Reduce

Deduct

Criticise

Copy

StandardResult

Avoid Risk

Get Insight

Immerse

Contradict

Combine

Associate

Play

New Ideas

Risk vs Insight

How to Get Insights (Klein)Gary KleinHow to get New Insights:

1. Explore contradictions (what if?)2. Create connections (learn new)3. Personal desperation (discard)

Break routines : curious observation

Gary A. Klein

CASE: Who Saves Your Life?Amateur Expert

Amateurs Experts

Helpers

Evaluators

15min 5+y.

15min 5+ y.

Reason Intuition

When you desperately need it – Intuition becomes available

Flow Creates Intuition (Kotler)

Steven Kotler

1. Flow puts you in the intuition zone2. Flow alters state of consciousness3. Sense of time is lost4. Loss of self floods in5. You feel part of something greater

You know directly what to do

CASE: Extreme Rock Climbing

1.Intensely Focused Attention2.Clear Goal (what & why)3.Immediate, Honest Feedback4.Challenge/Skill ratio c. 105%

Creative Breakthroughs (Shavinina)ExtraCognitive Innovations require:

1. Deep passion for subject2. Cognitive curiosity (questioning)3. Self-regulation: mental & emotional4. Self-confidence & independence

Joyful doing: a passion for excellence

Larisa L. Shavinina

CASE: Barbara McClintock (Keller)

QUOTE: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

“And now here is my secret,

a very simple secret:

It is only with the heart that one can see rightly;

what is essential is invisible to the eye.”

~ Antoine de Saint-Exupéry ~

False Beliefs about the Heart

“It’s just a pump”

“Mechanical”

“Can be replacedwith a machine”

“Steady beat is good”

”Dumb, not intelligent.”

Modern Neuro-cardiologyHeart is a Sensing Organ.

Brains are not the rhythmic controller of bodily functions, the Heart is.

Brain sends c. 40-60 times as much data to the brain as is reverse.

Heart tunes feelings, reactions, perceptions and physiological feedback.

Heart has its own intrinsic memory – independent of the brains.

Heart Coherence improves Intuition

Incoherent: Weakens functioning – requires energy (stress)

Coherent: Supports peak performance – increases resiliency

Pu

lse

Pu

lse

Disturbscognitivefunctions

Improvescognitivefunctions

Time (seconds)

100 –

90 –

80 –

70 –

60 –

50 –

100 –

90 –

80 –

70 –

60 –

50 – 1 50 100 150 200

© Institute of HeartMath

1 50 100 150 200

Time (seconds)

Heart EMF Field Extends Beyond Body

+3m outside the body

Encodes emotional information

Others can sense the field

Fields can synchronize together

DO: Quick Heart Coherence Meditation

2. Close Your eyes andimagine you breathe through your heart

4. Breathe throughheart & feel the love and

gratitude in your body

3. Recall a positive memory of love or deep gratitude

1. Take a few deep diaphragm breaths

Quote: Rumi

“Only from the heart

can you touch the sky..”

~ Rumi ~

WARNING!

Tesla – A Visionary Genius

“My brain is only a receiver, in the Universe there is a core from which we obtain knowledge, strength and inspiration.

I have not penetrated into the secrets of this core, but I know that it exists.”

― Nikola Tesla

Extraordinary Knowing

Quote: Kaufmann - telepathy

“If mind is partially quantum, nonlocality is

possible … as is telepathy.

We are arrogant not to look at this with

open minds.”

— Stuart Kauffman, biologist (2015)

Body Anticipates the Future

Before photo During photo Photo removed

Time

Exciting photo

0

+3 s +10 s

Calming photo

0 s-5 s

Calming photo

Exciting photo

Skin reaction

vs.?

“We found out experimentally that ESP exists, but that any practical application of this knowledge is not likely in the foreseeable future.”

- Masanobu Sakaguchi , Sony (1998)

If it Works – Why isn’t being used?

Can Psychics crack the Wall St?

Did Psychic Powers Give Firm

a Killing In the Silver Market?

— And Did Greed Ruin It All?By Erik LarsonThis was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion weighing 570 pounds. Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion. Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise," says Anthony R. White, a Stanford University M.B.A., art investor and manager of a family fortune. The research heavyweight is Russell Targ, a physicist who built sophisticated lasers for GTE Sylvania Inc. until 1972, then spent the next 10 years doing hush-hush, still "classified," psychic research for the federal government at SRI International, the sober California think tank. "We didn't invent psychic functioning," he says. "We thought we understood it enough to go into the market.“

Clairvoyance has always had its rewards. In 550 B.C., King Croesus of Lydia sliced up a tortoise and a lamb and mashed them together in a brass pot. This was not dinner.This was a test, and a clever one, of the ancient network of oracles. Croesus sent messengers to ask each oracle to describe what the king was up to at that particular moment. Only the oracle at Delphi called it right. No slouch when it came to rewards, Croesus slaughtered a few thousand sacrificial beasts, then dropped off a little something extra: 117 gold ingots and a solid gold lion

weighing 570 pounds.Delphi Associates of San Mateo would settle for the gold lion.

Delphi is a struggling three-man partnership formed to cash in on the fruits of its founders' psychic research. "This is not just an amusing exercise,"

— Wall Street Journal (Eastern edition). Oct 22, 1984. —

Remote Viewing used by Organizations

Meditative Traditions Confirm

“By Samyama over the changes of characteristic,

secondary quality and condition, comes to the Yogis

the knowledge of the past and the future.”

~ Patañjali , ’Yoga Sutras’(400 CE) ~

“Great enlightening beings, by super-knowledge of the eons

of the entire future, know the ages of the worlds as numerous

as the atoms in untold Buddha lands.

This called great enlightening beings’ fourth super-knowledge, the power of knowing the ages

of the entire future.”

~ ’Flower Ornament Scripture’ (200 CE) ~

“Know your Atman - the pure, infinite consciousness,

eternally existent in the past, present and future.

Thus you will find peace .”

~ Adi Shankara, ’Vivekaduchamani’ (700 CE)~

Quote: Einstein

“People like us, who believe in physics,

know that the distinction between

past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”

~ Albert Einstein ~

How do I do this?

1. Direct

2. Quiet down & Turn Inward

3. Observe & Linger

4. Apply & Test

Yes

No

Somethingelse

5. Have fun!

Thank You!

Intuition Books

Business

Biases Heuristics Risk Intuitions Insights

Using

Research

Methods Developing Examples

Extraordinary Intuition Reading