Post on 18-Feb-2018
transcript
GeneralSessionIV,MortalityProjectionfromaSocial
SecurityPanel
Moderator:SamGutterman,FSA,CERA,FCA,FCAS,HONFIA,MAAA
Presenters:
StephenC.Goss,ASA,MAAAAdrianGallop,FIA
JeanClaudeMenard,FSA,FCIAAnnieStJacques,FSA,FCIA
Mortality in the United Kingdom
Living to 100 Symposium 5 January 2017
Adrian GallopUK Office for National StatisticsUK Government Actuarys Department
Presentation outline
Historical trends Mortality 2014-based projection results Mortality by area, socio-economic category
and insured/retired State pension age
Period expectation of life at birth, England & Wales
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Life expectancy (years)
Year
Females
Males
Period expectation of life at age 65, England & Wales
5
10
15
20
25
1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Life expectancy (years)
Year
Females
Males
Age distribution of deaths, UK
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Males
0-14 15-34 35-59 60-79 80+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Females
0-14 15-34 35-59 60-79 80+
Annualised rates of mortality improvement Males, E&W
6
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1911-2014 1911-31 1931-51 1951-71 1971-91 1991-2011 2011-14
Ann
ual p
erce
ntag
e im
prov
emen
t, m
x
Period
20-39
40-59
60-79
80-99
Annualised rates of mortality improvement Females, E&W
7
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1911-2014 1911-31 1931-51 1951-71 1971-91 1991-2011 2011-14
Ann
ual p
erce
ntag
e im
prov
emen
t, m
x
Period
20-39
40-59
60-79
80-99
Male mortality by major cause, E&W, 1911-2013
Age standardised mortality rates for selected broad disease groups
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Rate per 100,000
Year
Respiratory
Cancers
Circulatory
Female mortality by major cause, E&W, 1911-2013
Age standardised mortality rates for selected broad disease groups
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Rate per 100,000
Year
Respiratory
Circulatory
Cancers
Age standardised mortality rate by cause, persons aged 75 and over, E&W
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Flu and Pneumonia Other Respiratory Dementia and Alzheimer'sCirculatory Cancer All other causes
Source: ONS
Age-standardised mortality rates, E&W
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Age-standardised mortality rate per 100,000, E&W, 1995 to 2015Males Females
Deaths, Males, UK
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sta
ndar
dise
d nu
mbe
r of d
eath
s
Deaths, Males, UK
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sta
ndar
dise
d nu
mbe
r of d
eath
s
Deaths, Males, UK
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sta
ndar
dise
d nu
mbe
r of d
eath
s
Deaths, Males, UK
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
330000
350000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sta
ndar
dise
d nu
mbe
r of d
eath
s
Leading causes of death, E&W, 2015
The leading causes of death in 2015 were:
Source: Office for National Statistics16
Males FemalesUnderlying cause Percentage of
all male deathsUnderlying cause Percentage of all
female deathsHeart disease 14.3% Dementia and
Alzheimers15.2%
Dementia and Alzheimers
7.9% Heart disease 8.8%
Neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung
6.4% Cerebrovascular diseases
7.5%
Chronic lower respiratory diseases
6.2% Influenza and Pneumonia
6.1%
Cerebrovascular diseases
5.6% Chronic lower respiratory diseases
6.0%
Number of deaths by month of registration, persons aged 75 and over, E&W
Dotted lines are five year averagesSource: ONS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Dementia and Alzheimer's - 2015 Circulatory - 2015 Respiratory - 2015 All other causes
UK Population Mortality Projections
Methodology
Estimate current rates of mortality improvement by age and gender
Set target rates of mortality improvement for some future year (the target year)
Assumptions on method and speed of convergence of current improvement rates to target rates
Assumptions how improvement rates change after target year
Apply successively to assumed base mortality rates
Base improvement in death rates by age, 2013-14, United Kingdom
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Percentage reduction
Age attained in 2014
Males improvements in 2014 Females improvements in 2014
Improvement in 2039 principal Improvement in 2039 variants
2014-based annual improvement in smoothed mortality rates, Males, UK, 1961/2 2038/9
Projections
2014-based annual improvement in smoothed mortality rates, Females, UK, 1961/2 2038/9
Projections
Actual and assumed overall annual rates of mortality improvement, ages 0-99, UK
Males Females
Last/nextYears
Past (Actual)
Future (assumed)
Past (Actual)
Future (assumed)
20
25
30
50
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
1.7%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.5%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.4%
80
100
1.3%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
Period expectations of life at birth in 2013
Country Males FemalesUK 79.0 82.8The Netherlands 79.4 83.0Sweden 80.1 83.7Norway 79.7 83.6France 78.7 85.0Switzerland 80.5 84.8USA 76.4 81.2Canada 79.3 83.6Australia 80.1 84.3Japan 80.2 86.6
Source: latest published life expectancy from countrys national statistics website, May 2015
Projected period expectations of life at birth in 2060
Country Males FemalesUK* 86.7 89.3The Netherlands 87.1 89.9Sweden 86.7 88.8Norway 86.5 89.1France 86.0 91.1Switzerland 86.1 90.2USA 84.0 87.1Canada (2062) 87.6 89.2Australia 85.2 88.3Japan 84.2 90.9
* 2014-based UK projections Source: latest published projections from countrys national statistics website, November 2015
Alternative target rates of improvementTarget rates assumed for 2039
Projected period life expectancyMales Females Males Females
At birth in 2039 At birth in 20890.8% 83.6 86.4 87.6 90.2
1.0% 83.8 86.7 88.9 91.4
1.2% 84.1 87.0 90.2 92.61.4% 84.4 87.2 91.5 93.8
CPP 27* 83.2* 86.0* 87.1* 89.6*
OASDI 16* 83.4* 86.2* 87.3* 89.7*
At age 65 in 2039 At age 65 in 20890.8% 21.9 23.8 25.1 26.9
1.0% 22.1 24.0 26.2 28.0
1.2% 22.3 24.2 27.2 29.01.4% 22.6 24.5 28.3 30.1
CPP 27* 21.5* 23.4* 24.5* 26.3*
OASDI 16* 21.6* 23.5* 24.6* 26.3** The life expectancies here are derived by inputting the long term assumptions for improvements in mortality rates from the latest CPP and SSA projections as the target rates in 2039 in the UK model; they are not the life expectancy values from the CPP or SSA projections.
Projected period life expectancy, UK
2014 2019 2029 2039 2049 2059
Expectation of life at birth
Males 79.3(79.6)
80.5(80.9)
82.7(82.9)
84.1 (84.3)
85.4 (85.6)
86.6 (86.9)
Females 83.0 (83.3)
84.0 (84.4)
85.7(86.3)
86.9 (87.6)
88.1 (88.8)
89.2 (89.9)
Expectation of life at