Climate change and bean productionJulian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis

(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

• What climate change?• Sensitivity of beans?• Modelling crop suitability impacts• Breeding priorities• Way forward: modelling crop processes• Where are the traits?

Outline

What climate change?

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Emissions from agricultureExcluding land-use [Mt CO2-eq]

Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

Impacts on agriculture• By 2100, novel climates could happen in 10-48% of the earth

(Williams et al. 2007)• Climate change is predicted to decrease agricultural yields (many

authors), with major impacts in the DW (many authors)

Source: Lobell et al., 2008

Climate Predictions

• Global Circulation Models

… to produce future predictions based upon historical observations…

Climate Predictions

• Climate is very hard to model

Climate model skill

• Climate model skill (CMIP3)1961-1990 Rainfall 1961-1990 Temperature

Source: Ramirez and Challinor, in prep.

Climate model skill

Sensitivity of beans

Courtesy: S. Beebe

Sensitivities

• Drought: less biomass (optimal 300-500 mm)• Waterlogging: Root rotting• High temperatures

Konsens et al. 1991

Sensitivities

• CO2 response

340 ppm

3,000 ppm

500 ppm

Jolliffe & Ehret (1985)

Sensitivities

• CO2 and HTS– CO2: increases biomass– HTS (temperature)– HTS (timing)– HTS (duration)

• Pests and diseases– In dry areas– In humid areas

Vara-Prasad et al. 2002

Common Bean

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

Modelling changes in crop suitability

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…

…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

• EcoCrop: how does it work?

Common Bean Current Suitability

Kiling temperature (°C) 0

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 13.55

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 17.45

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.05

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 25.63

Growing season (days) 90

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 200.0

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 362.5

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 449.5

Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 710.0

Common Bean Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

Lima Bean

VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

Lima Bean Current Suitability and Presence

Lima Bean Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

Impacts

Lima bean Common bean

Breeding priorities (water)

Common beanLima bean

Breeding priorities (temperature)

Common beanLima bean

Way forward: modelling crop processes

• Phenology• Water balance• TDS + DS + HTS• CO2 fertilisation

• Nutrient balance?• Pests and diseases?

Designing ideotypes

• Evaluate the effects of these traits using crop models– A faster and efficient rooting system– Higher transpiration efficiency– Higher harvest index– Tolerance to water/temperature stresses

Where to look for those (abiotic) traits?

vulgaris

dumosus

vulgaris

lunatus

Where to look for those traits?

CONSERVEDEX-SITU

POTENTIAL

From ~260,000 accessions, only 4,453 are wild

From 85 taxa, 35 are not in any genebank, and 26 have <10 accessions...

Source: Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2010)

But as we know, they’re not well conserved

Summary

• More conservation? Not a surprise• Heat and drought tolerance for both crops,

but heat more intensely for Lima beans, whereas drought more intensely for dry beans

• Mechanistic modelling needed• Perhaps some further experimentation to

characterise HTS?